Upside case
Bull case
$46-38.0%
The bull case prices FTI at 16x on FY1 earnings, assuming continued execution and no meaningful deceleration in the core business.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
TechnipFMC plc (FTI) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
50
analysts
32 bullish · 0 bearish · 50 covering FTI
Strong Buy
0
Buy
32
Hold
18
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$67
-8.9% vs today
Scenario Range
— – $46
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
50
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
25.3x
Forward P/E · Market cap $29.6B
FTI price targets
Three scenarios for where FTI stock could go
Current
~$74
Confidence
62 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $74
Base
$121
Bull
$46
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$121+64.0%
At 41x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
TechnipFMC plc
FTI · NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Equipment & ServicesDecember year-end
TechnipFMC is a leading technology and services provider for the energy industry, specializing in subsea and surface oil and gas production systems. The company generates revenue primarily through its Subsea segment — which accounts for roughly 80% of sales — and its Surface Technologies segment, both offering integrated project delivery and lifecycle services. Its key competitive advantage lies in its integrated engineering approach and proprietary technologies that optimize field development and operations, creating significant switching costs for clients.
Market Cap
$29.6B
Revenue TTM
$10.2B
Net Income TTM
$1.1B
Net Margin
10.6%
FTI Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+21.6%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.68/$0.58
Revenue
$2.5B/$2.5B
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.75/$0.65
Revenue
$2.6B/$2.5B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.70/$0.52
Revenue
$2.5B/$2.5B
Q2 2026
EPS
$0.64/$0.57
Revenue
$2.5B/$2.5B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.68/$0.58 | +18.1% | $2.5B/$2.5B | +2.0% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.75/$0.65 | +15.4% | $2.6B/$2.5B | +4.6% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.70/$0.52 | +35.9% | $2.5B/$2.5B | -0.8% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.64/$0.57 | +12.3% | $2.5B/$2.5B | -1.2% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$11.0B
+7.9% YoY
FY2
$12.0B
+9.4% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$3.11
+17.8% YoY
FY2
$3.77
+21.3% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$1.3B
FCF Margin: 13.2%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
FTI beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
FTI Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $9.6B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Service
58.5%
+2.2% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
BRAZIL
22.8%
+26.2% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Service is the largest disclosed segment at 58.5% of FY 2025 revenue, up 2.2% YoY.
BRAZIL is the largest reported region at 22.8%, up 26.2% YoY.
FTI Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Slightly Overvalued
Fair value est. $71 — implies -6.5% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
6.5%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
FTI
32.1x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
+27% premium
vs Energy Trailing P/E
FTI
32.1x
vs
Energy
16.9x
+91% premium
vs FTI 5Y Avg P/E
Today
32.1x
vs
5Y Average
21.9x
+47% premium
Forward PE
25.3x
S&P 500
19.1x
+32%
Energy
13.2x
+91%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
32.1x
S&P 500
25.2x
+27%
Energy
16.9x
+91%
5Y Avg
21.9x
+47%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.75x
—
Energy
0.52x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
21.9x
S&P 500
15.3x
+43%
Energy
8.1x
+168%
5Y Avg
11.1x
+97%
Price/FCF
20.4x
S&P 500
21.3x
-4%
Energy
14.1x
+45%
5Y Avg
16.9x
+21%
Price/Sales
3.0x
S&P 500
3.1x
-5%
Energy
1.6x
+91%
5Y Avg
1.1x
+162%
Dividend Yield
0.27%
S&P 500
1.88%
-86%
Energy
2.97%
-91%
5Y Avg
0.53%
-50%
| Metric | FTI | S&P 500 | Energy | 5Y Avg FTI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 25.3x | 19.1x+32% | 13.2x+91% | — |
| Trailing PE | 32.1x | 25.2x+27% | 16.9x+91% | 21.9x+47% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.75x | 0.52x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 21.9x | 15.3x+43% | 8.1x+168% | 11.1x+97% |
| Price/FCF | 20.4x | 21.3x | 14.1x+45% | 16.9x+21% |
| Price/Sales | 3.0x | 3.1x | 1.6x+91% | 1.1x+162% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.27% | 1.88% | 2.97% | 0.53% |
FTI trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 3 of 5 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolFTI Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
FTI generates $1.3B in free cash flow at a 13.2% margin — 17.6% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 3.4% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$10.2B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+9.5%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
20.1%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
14.4%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
10.6%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$2.64
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$1.3B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
13.2%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
17.6%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
10.7%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$1.0B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$984M
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
0.7× FCF
~0.7 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
32.2%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
3.4%
Dividend
0.3%
Buyback
3.1%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$918M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$0.20
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
8.5%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
400M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageFTI Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Project Execution & Contractual Risks
FTI’s revenue hinges on large offshore contracts, exposing it to delays, cost overruns, and execution challenges, especially in high‑risk geographies such as Mozambique and Nigeria. These disruptions can materially affect cash flow and profitability.
Medium
Commodity Price Volatility
The company’s performance is sensitive to swings in oil and gas prices and capital expenditure cycles, which can compress margins and reduce demand for its engineering services.
Medium
Competitive Bidding & Margin Erosion
FTI competes on price even with integrated offerings, leading to pricing pressure and potential erosion of operating margins as rivals undercut bids.
Medium
Geopolitical & Regulatory Risks
Operations in politically sensitive regions can disrupt contracts and delay order timing, while evolving ESG and regulatory frameworks add compliance costs and uncertainty.
Medium
Valuation Concerns
Analysts note that FTI may be trading above its narrative fair value, with some reports indicating a potential downside risk if market sentiment shifts.
Lower
Data Risks & Compliance
Data privacy, security breaches, and data quality issues pose significant risks, especially with tightening regulatory enforcement and the company’s consulting services exposure.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why FTI Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Strong Subsea Division Performance
The Subsea division achieved a record adjusted EBITDA margin of 21.8% and management projects 2026 margins of 20.5‑22%. This robust profitability underpins the company’s overall earnings momentum.
Robust Earnings Growth
Earnings are forecast to grow 9.75% annually, with a 14.4% increase over the past year. Full‑year 2025 revenues are projected at $3.789 billion, up 2.4% from the prior year.
Healthy Balance Sheet
FTI’s debt‑to‑equity ratio stands at 12.63, far below the industry average of 44.93, indicating lower financial risk and greater flexibility.
Shareholder Returns Commitment
The company plans to return over 70% of its free cash flow to shareholders, outperforming both the U.S. market and the U.S. Energy Services industry in returns over the past year.
Operational Strengths and Innovation
FTI’s operational transformation, innovative subsea project approaches, integrated solutions, and strong backlog provide a foundation for sustained margin growth.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
FTI Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$73.94
52W Range Position
92%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$28.87
+156.1% from the low
52-Week High
$77.78
-4.9% from the high
1 Month
+3.28%
3 Month
+25.19%
YTD
+56.3%
1 Year
+153.7%
3Y CAGR
+74.2%
5Y CAGR
+55.3%
10Y CAGR
+12.2%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
FTI vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
25.3x
vs 22.7x median
+11% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+7.9%
vs +1.9% median
+308% above peer median
Net Margin
10.6%
vs 6.9% median
+53% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FTI FTI TechnipFMC plc | $29.6B | 25.3x | +7.9% | 10.6% | Buy | -8.9% |
SLB SLB SLB N.V. | $82.8B | 20.6x | +2.9% | 9.4% | Buy | +3.2% |
HAL HAL Halliburton Company | $33.7B | 17.4x | +0.3% | 6.9% | Buy | -8.2% |
BKR BKR Baker Hughes Company | $66.1B | 27.8x | +1.9% | 11.2% | Buy | +8.0% |
NOV NOV NOV Inc. | $7.3B | 22.7x | +1.6% | 1.0% | Hold | -4.0% |
WTT WTTR Select Water Solutions, Inc. | $1.8B | 43.2x | +2.0% | 1.5% | Buy | -8.3% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
FTI Dividend and Capital Return
FTI returns capital mainly through $918M/year in buybacks (3.1% buyback yield), with a modest 0.27% dividend — combining for 3.4% total shareholder yield.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
3.4%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
3.1%
Dividend Yield
0.27%
Payout Ratio
8.5%
How FTI Splits Its Return
Buyback 3.1%
Dividend 0.27%Buybacks 3.1%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.20
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
2Y
3Y Div CAGR
—
5Y Div CAGR
15.6%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Semi-Annual
5 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$918M
Estimated Shares Retired
12M
Approx. Share Reduction
3.1%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
400M
At 3.1%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.10 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $0.20 | 0.0% | 4.9% | 5.4% |
| 2024 | $0.20 | +100.0% | 3.1% | 3.8% |
| 2023 | $0.10 | — | 2.3% | 2.7% |
| 2020 | $0.10 | -75.0% | 0.0% | 1.7% |
FAQ
7 questionsFTI Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is TechnipFMC plc (FTI) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
TechnipFMC plc (FTI) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 50 analysts covering the stock, 32 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 18 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $67, implying -8.9% from the current price of $74.
02What is the FTI stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for FTI is $67 based on 50 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $83 (+12.3% from today), and the low-end target is $50 (-32.4%). The base case model target is $121.
03Is TechnipFMC plc (FTI) stock overvalued in 2026?
FTI trades at 25.3x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals slightly overvalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for TechnipFMC plc (FTI) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for FTI in 2026 are: (1) Project Execution & Contractual Risks — FTI’s revenue hinges on large offshore contracts, exposing it to delays, cost overruns, and execution challenges, especially in high‑risk geographies such as Mozambique and Nigeria. (2) Commodity Price Volatility — The company’s performance is sensitive to swings in oil and gas prices and capital expenditure cycles, which can compress margins and reduce demand for its engineering services. (3) Competitive Bidding & Margin Erosion — FTI competes on price even with integrated offerings, leading to pricing pressure and potential erosion of operating margins as rivals undercut bids. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is TechnipFMC plc's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates FTI will report consensus revenue of $11.0B (+7.9% year-over-year) and EPS of $3.11 (+17.8% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $12.0B in revenue.
06When does TechnipFMC plc (FTI) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for FTI is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does TechnipFMC plc generate?
TechnipFMC plc (FTI) generated $1.3B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 13.2%. FTI returns capital to shareholders through dividends (0.3% yield) and share repurchases ($918M TTM).