Upside case
Bull case
$227+47.0%
GL would need investors to value it at roughly 15x earnings — about 5x more generous than today's 10x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated May 1, 2026
Globe Life Inc. (GL) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
28
analysts
10 bullish · 7 bearish · 28 covering GL
Strong Buy
1
Buy
9
Hold
11
Sell
7
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$171
+10.9% vs today
Scenario Range
$133 – $227
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
28
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
9.9x
Forward P/E · Market cap $12.1B
GL price targets
Three scenarios for where GL stock could go
Current
~$154
Confidence
76 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $154
Bear
$133
Base
$189
Bull
$227
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$189+22.7%
At 12x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$133-14.0%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 1x multiple contraction could push GL down roughly 14% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Globe Life Inc.
GL · NYSEFinancial ServicesInsurance - LifeDecember year-end
Globe Life is a life and supplemental health insurance provider focused on middle-income households in the United States. It generates revenue primarily from life insurance premiums (roughly 60% of total), supplemented by health insurance premiums (about 30%) and annuity fees, with investment income providing additional earnings. The company's competitive advantage lies in its specialized distribution through exclusive agency forces and direct-to-consumer channels that efficiently target its core demographic.
Market Cap
$12.1B
Revenue TTM
$6.0B
Net Income TTM
$1.2B
Net Margin
19.4%
GL Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
67%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
8%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+1.7%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 2 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$3.27/$3.25
Revenue
$1.5B/$1.5B
Q4 2025
EPS
$4.81/$4.60
Revenue
$1.5B/$1.5B
Q1 2026
EPS
$3.39/$3.44
Revenue
$1.5B/$1.5B
Q2 2026
EPS
$3.43/$3.46
Revenue
$1.6B/$1.6B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $3.27/$3.25 | +0.6% | $1.5B/$1.5B | -1.6% |
| Q4 2025 | $4.81/$4.60 | +4.6% | $1.5B/$1.5B | -0.4% |
| Q1 2026 | $3.39/$3.44 | -1.5% | $1.5B/$1.5B | -0.8% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.43/$3.46 | -0.9% | $1.6B/$1.6B | -0.3% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$6.3B
+4.9% YoY
FY2
$6.6B
+4.5% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$15.92
+10.8% YoY
FY2
$17.26
+8.4% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$1.3B
FCF Margin: 20.9%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
GL beat EPS estimates in 2 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
GL Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $4.9B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Life Segment
68.8%
+3.1% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Life Segment is the largest disclosed segment at 68.8% of FY 2025 revenue, up 3.1% YoY.
GL Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Fairly Valued
Fair value est. $148 — implies -3.1% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
3.1%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
GL
11.0x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
56% discount
vs Financial Services Trailing P/E
GL
11.0x
vs
Financial Services
13.4x
18% discount
vs GL 5Y Avg P/E
Today
11.0x
vs
5Y Average
11.5x
In line with benchmark
Forward PE
9.9x
S&P 500
19.1x
-48%
Financial Services
10.5x
-5%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
11.0x
S&P 500
25.2x
-56%
Financial Services
13.4x
-18%
5Y Avg
11.5x
-5%
PEG Ratio
0.71x
S&P 500
1.75x
-60%
Financial Services
1.03x
-31%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
9.2x
S&P 500
15.3x
-40%
Financial Services
11.4x
-20%
5Y Avg
9.5x
-4%
Price/FCF
9.7x
S&P 500
21.3x
-55%
Financial Services
10.6x
-9%
5Y Avg
8.0x
+21%
Price/Sales
2.0x
S&P 500
3.1x
-36%
Financial Services
2.3x
-10%
5Y Avg
2.0x
+3%
Dividend Yield
0.69%
S&P 500
1.88%
-63%
Financial Services
2.68%
-74%
5Y Avg
0.78%
-11%
| Metric | GL | S&P 500 | Financial Services | 5Y Avg GL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 9.9x | 19.1x-48% | 10.5x | — |
| Trailing PE | 11.0x | 25.2x-56% | 13.4x-18% | 11.5x |
| PEG Ratio | 0.71x | 1.75x-60% | 1.03x-31% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.2x | 15.3x-40% | 11.4x-20% | 9.5x |
| Price/FCF | 9.7x | 21.3x-55% | 10.6x | 8.0x+21% |
| Price/Sales | 2.0x | 3.1x-36% | 2.3x-10% | 2.0x |
| Dividend Yield | 0.69% | 1.88% | 2.68% | 0.78% |
GL trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 0 of 6 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolGL Financial Health
Verdict
Exceptional
GL posts 19.4% net margin with 20.6% ROE — the core signals of underwriting discipline and capital efficiency.
Underwriting & Earnings
Premium revenue, margins, and returns
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$6.0B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+3.8%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
24.4%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
19.4%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$14.36
ROE
Return on equity — measures underwriting and investment efficiency
20.6%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
13.4%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
3.8%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$145M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$2.5B
FCF Analysis
Traditional FCF and debt/FCF ratios are not meaningful for financial companies. Focus on ROE and ROA above.
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
20.6%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
8.0%
Dividend
0.7%
Buyback
7.3%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$881M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$1.06
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
7.4%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
78M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. For financial companies, ROE and ROA are the primary health signals — FCF-based metrics are not applicable.
Open full ratios pageGL Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Reputational damage
A recent viral short-seller report and social media accusations regarding Globe Life's sales culture and policy value have negatively impacted investor and customer confidence. This reputational damage poses a risk of higher lapse rates, weaker new business, and increased regulatory scrutiny.
High Risk
Debt and earnings growth
Globe Life has a high level of debt, and with expected earnings growth slowing to approximately 4.1% annually, managing this debt could become increasingly challenging. This is in stark contrast to the 8.5% annual earnings growth seen over the past five years, raising concerns about financial stability.
Medium
Underwriting margin pressure
The company faces potential pressure on underwriting margins, particularly in the supplemental health insurance segment, due to a shift towards lower-margin Medicare Supplement products. This shift could adversely affect profitability and overall financial performance.
Medium
Salesforce recruitment challenges
Challenges in recruiting and retaining a capable salesforce could hinder Globe Life's topline growth. An inability to effectively expand the sales team may limit the company's ability to capture new business opportunities.
Lower
EEOC reviews
Ongoing reviews by the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission (EEOC) related to employee allegations represent a potential risk for Globe Life. While the impact on financials is currently uncertain, any negative findings could lead to reputational harm and financial liabilities.
Lower
Investment portfolio risk
Globe Life's investment portfolio is heavily weighted in debt securities, but there is a lack of detailed disclosure on the credit quality of this large debt portfolio. This opacity makes it difficult to fully assess the underlying risks associated with their investments.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why GL Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Strong Financial Performance
Globe Life has demonstrated consistent revenue and earnings growth, reporting $5.99 billion in revenue for 2025, a 3.74% increase from the previous year, and earnings rising by 8.45% to $1.16 billion. Recent earnings calls have highlighted double-digit net operating income growth and robust investment income.
Positive Analyst Sentiment
The majority of Wall Street analysts have a positive outlook on GL stock, with a consensus rating of 'Buy' or 'Strong Buy.' Several analysts have raised their price targets, citing strong earnings and raised guidance.
Projected Premium Growth
The company anticipates continued premium growth in 2026, with life premiums projected to increase by 3%-3.5% and health premiums by 14%-17%. This growth is supported by a projected 10% increase in leads for its exclusive agencies.
Operational Strengths and Investments
Globe Life is benefiting from favorable mortality trends and is investing in technology and AI to drive margin expansion and productivity gains. The company maintains solid net income margins, around 19.4%.
Commitment to Capital Returns
Globe Life is committed to returning capital to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases, with plans for approximately $90 million in dividends and up to $610 million in share repurchases for 2026.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
GL Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$154.39
52W Range Position
94%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$116.73
+32.3% from the low
52-Week High
$156.69
-1.5% from the high
1 Month
+7.69%
3 Month
+5.38%
YTD
+11.5%
1 Year
+28.3%
3Y CAGR
+12.5%
5Y CAGR
+7.8%
10Y CAGR
+10.3%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
GL vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
9.9x
vs 8.1x median
+23% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+4.9%
vs +11.7% median
-58% below peer median
Net Margin
19.4%
vs 4.9% median
+292% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GL GL Globe Life Inc. | $12.1B | 9.9x | +4.9% | 19.4% | Hold | +10.9% |
CNO CNO CNO Financial Group, Inc. | $4.3B | 10.4x | +1.5% | 4.9% | Hold | +2.1% |
FGL FGL Founder Group Limited Ordinary Shares | $34M | — | — | — | — | — |
CRB CRBG Corebridge Financial, Inc. | $12.8B | 5.7x | +214.5% | — | Buy | +20.6% |
LNC LNC Lincoln National Corporation | $6.4B | 4.9x | +21.9% | 11.4% | Hold | +15.6% |
GNW GNW Genworth Financial, Inc. | $3.6B | 21.3x | -8.4% | 3.6% | Hold | — |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
GL Dividend and Capital Return
GL returns capital mainly through $881M/year in buybacks (7.3% buyback yield), with a modest 0.69% dividend — combining for 8.0% total shareholder yield. The dividend has grown for 23 consecutive years.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
8.0%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
7.3%
Dividend Yield
0.69%
Payout Ratio
7.4%
How GL Splits Its Return
Buyback 7.3%
Dividend 0.69%Buybacks 7.3%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$1.06
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
23Y
3Y Div CAGR
8.6%
5Y Div CAGR
7.4%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$881M
Estimated Shares Retired
6M
Approx. Share Reduction
7.3%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
78M
At 7.3%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.60 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $1.05 | +11.1% | 7.8% | 8.6% |
| 2024 | $0.94 | +7.1% | 10.6% | 11.5% |
| 2023 | $0.88 | +7.7% | 4.4% | 5.1% |
| 2022 | $0.82 | +4.9% | 3.8% | 4.5% |
FAQ
7 questionsGL Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Globe Life Inc. (GL) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Globe Life Inc. (GL) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 28 analysts covering the stock, 10 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 11 rate it Hold, and 7 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $171, implying +10.9% from the current price of $154. The bear case scenario is $133 and the bull case is $227.
02What is the GL stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for GL is $171 based on 28 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $185 (+19.8% from today), and the low-end target is $157 (+1.7%). The base case model target is $189.
03Is Globe Life Inc. (GL) stock overvalued in 2026?
GL trades at 9.9x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals fairly valued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Globe Life Inc. (GL) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for GL in 2026 are: (1) Reputational damage — A recent viral short-seller report and social media accusations regarding Globe Life's sales culture and policy value have negatively impacted investor and customer confidence. (2) Debt and earnings growth — Globe Life has a high level of debt, and with expected earnings growth slowing to approximately 4. (3) Underwriting margin pressure — The company faces potential pressure on underwriting margins, particularly in the supplemental health insurance segment, due to a shift towards lower-margin Medicare Supplement products. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Globe Life Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates GL will report consensus revenue of $6.3B (+4.9% year-over-year) and EPS of $15.92 (+10.8% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $6.6B in revenue.
06When does Globe Life Inc. (GL) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for GL is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Globe Life Inc. generate?
Globe Life Inc. (GL) generated $1.3B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 20.9%. GL returns capital to shareholders through dividends (0.7% yield) and share repurchases ($881M TTM).