Upside case
Bull case
$1251+66.6%
MCK would need investors to value it at roughly 28x earnings — about 11x more generous than today's 17x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
McKesson Corporation (MCK) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
31
analysts
25 bullish · 0 bearish · 31 covering MCK
Strong Buy
1
Buy
24
Hold
6
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$995
+32.5% vs today
Scenario Range
$598 – $1251
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
31
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
17.0x
Forward P/E · Market cap $90.2B
MCK price targets
Three scenarios for where MCK stock could go
Current
~$751
Confidence
57 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $751
Bear
$598
Base
$949
Bull
$1251
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$949+26.5%
At 21x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$598-20.3%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 3x multiple contraction could push MCK down roughly 20% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
McKesson Corporation
MCK · NYSEHealthcareMedical - DistributionMarch year-end
McKesson is a healthcare supply chain and services company that distributes pharmaceuticals and medical supplies across the U.S. and internationally. It generates most of its revenue from pharmaceutical distribution—primarily through its U.S. Pharmaceutical segment—with additional income from medical-surgical supplies, technology solutions, and international operations. The company's competitive advantage lies in its massive scale and integrated logistics network, which creates significant barriers to entry in the highly regulated healthcare distribution market.
Market Cap
$90.2B
Revenue TTM
$403.4B
Net Income TTM
$4.8B
Net Margin
1.2%
MCK Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
50%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+4.5%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$8.26/$8.14
Revenue
$97.8B/$96.2B
Q4 2025
EPS
$9.86/$9.03
Revenue
$103.2B/$104.1B
Q1 2026
EPS
$9.34/$9.17
Revenue
$106.2B/$105.8B
Q2 2026
EPS
$11.69/$11.56
Revenue
$96.3B/$101.3B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $8.26/$8.14 | +1.5% | $97.8B/$96.2B | +1.7% |
| Q4 2025 | $9.86/$9.03 | +9.2% | $103.2B/$104.1B | -0.9% |
| Q1 2026 | $9.34/$9.17 | +1.9% | $106.2B/$105.8B | +0.3% |
| Q2 2026 | $11.69/$11.56 | +1.1% | $96.3B/$101.3B | -5.0% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$434.7B
+7.8% YoY
FY2
$461.2B
+6.1% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$42.88
+10.5% YoY
FY2
$46.47
+8.4% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$5.9B
FCF Margin: 1.5%
Next Earnings
August 5, 2026
Expected EPS
$9.63
Expected Revenue
$104.0B
MCK beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
MCK Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2026
Total disclosed revenue $403.4B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
North American Pharmaceutical Segment
83.4%
YoY unavailable
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
North American Pharmaceutical Segment is the largest disclosed segment at 83.4% of FY 2026 revenue, with no year-over-year comparison yet.
MCK Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Slightly cheap versus peers
Fair value est. $831 — implies +10.7% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
10.7%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
MCK
19.6x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
20% discount
vs Healthcare Trailing P/E
MCK
19.6x
vs
Healthcare
22.1x
12% discount
vs MCK 5Y Avg P/E
Today
19.6x
vs
5Y Average
25.9x
24% discount
Forward PE
17.0x
S&P 500
18.8x
-10%
Healthcare
18.3x
-7%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
19.6x
S&P 500
24.4x
-20%
Healthcare
22.1x
-12%
5Y Avg
25.9x
-24%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.66x
—
Healthcare
1.59x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
13.2x
S&P 500
15.2x
-13%
Healthcare
14.2x
-7%
5Y Avg
14.7x
-10%
Price/FCF
15.8x
S&P 500
20.7x
-24%
Healthcare
18.5x
-15%
5Y Avg
15.6x
+1%
Price/Sales
0.2x
S&P 500
3.1x
-93%
Healthcare
2.6x
-92%
5Y Avg
0.2x
+2%
Dividend Yield
0.41%
S&P 500
1.91%
-79%
Healthcare
1.50%
-73%
5Y Avg
0.47%
-13%
| Metric | MCK | S&P 500 | Healthcare | 5Y Avg MCK |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 17.0x | 18.8x | 18.3x | — |
| Trailing PE | 19.6x | 24.4x-20% | 22.1x-12% | 25.9x-24% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.66x | 1.59x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 13.2x | 15.2x-13% | 14.2x | 14.7x |
| Price/FCF | 15.8x | 20.7x-24% | 18.5x-15% | 15.6x |
| Price/Sales | 0.2x | 3.1x-93% | 2.6x-92% | 0.2x |
| Dividend Yield | 0.41% | 1.91% | 1.50% | 0.47% |
MCK trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 0 of 5 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolMCK Financial Health
Verdict
Adequate
MCK 254.1% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage — returns 5.7% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$403.4B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+12.4%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
3.6%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
1.6%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
1.2%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$38.81
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$5.9B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
1.5%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
254.1%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
5.7%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$4.0B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$4.6B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
0.8× FCF
~0.8 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
—
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
5.7%
Dividend
0.4%
Buyback
5.3%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$4.8B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$3.07
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
8.0%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
120M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageMCK Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
High Risk
Pricing and reimbursement pressure
Intensified pricing and reimbursement pressure could negatively impact margins and growth, potentially pushing shares toward lower targets.
Medium
Margin recovery risks
Slower-than-expected margin recovery could hinder financial performance and investor confidence.
Medium
Execution setbacks
Operational or strategic execution setbacks may lead to underperformance relative to growth expectations.
Lower
Stock price volatility
AI models and analysts project a potential decline in stock price, reflecting bearish sentiment and uncertainty.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why MCK Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
Wide economic moat
McKesson Corporation has a wide moat, making it a resilient player in the healthcare distribution sector, as highlighted in its moat analysis and institutional ownership.
Strong institutional backing
Top holder Vanguard Group owns 11.8% of McKesson, signaling strong institutional confidence in the company's long-term prospects.
Healthcare logistics backbone
McKesson serves as the logistical and operational backbone of the U.S. healthcare system, ensuring steady demand for its services.
Specialty distribution growth
The bull case assumes McKesson will expand its share in specialty distribution, driving future revenue growth.
Margin expansion potential
Execution on margin improvement programs is a key driver, with potential to enhance profitability and shareholder value.
Valuation re-rating upside
Analysts project a potential re-rating toward the upper range of valuations, with a target around $1,050.
Diversified healthcare services
McKesson provides pharmaceuticals, health IT, medical supplies, and health management tools, diversifying its revenue streams.
Bullish investor sentiment
Multiple bullish theses from value investing communities highlight McKesson's strong fundamentals and growth potential.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
MCK Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$750.63
52W Range Position
31%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$637.00
+17.8% from the low
52-Week High
$999.00
-24.9% from the high
1 Month
-3.27%
3 Month
-18.44%
YTD
-8.8%
1 Year
+3.0%
3Y CAGR
+22.3%
5Y CAGR
+32.3%
10Y CAGR
+15.4%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
MCK vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
17.0x
vs 13.3x median
+28% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+7.8%
vs +5.9% median
+31% above peer median
Net Margin
1.2%
vs 0.7% median
+64% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MCK MCK McKesson Corporation | $90.2B | 17.0x | +7.8% | 1.2% | Buy | +32.5% |
CAH CAH Cardinal Health, Inc. | $52.2B | 20.6x | +6.0% | 0.6% | Buy | +14.3% |
HSI HSIC Henry Schein, Inc. | $9.2B | 14.9x | +5.5% | 3.0% | Buy | +9.4% |
CVS CVS CVS Health Corporation | $125.4B | 13.3x | +5.9% | 0.7% | Buy | +5.4% |
CI CI Cigna Corporation | $73.6B | 9.2x | +7.6% | 2.3% | Buy | +22.1% |
OMI OMI Owens & Minor, Inc. | $171M | 2.3x | -1.0% | -39.8% | Hold | +596.4% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
MCK Dividend and Capital Return
MCK returns capital mainly through $4.8B/year in buybacks (5.3% buyback yield), with a modest 0.41% dividend — combining for 5.7% total shareholder yield. The dividend has grown for 18 consecutive years.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
5.7%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
5.3%
Dividend Yield
0.41%
Payout Ratio
8.0%
How MCK Splits Its Return
Buyback 5.3%
Dividend 0.41%Buybacks 5.3%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$3.07
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
18Y
3Y Div CAGR
14.8%
5Y Div CAGR
13.0%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$4.8B
Estimated Shares Retired
6M
Approx. Share Reduction
5.3%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
120M
At 5.3%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $1.64 | — | 4.4% | 4.8% |
| 2025 | $3.06 | +15.0% | 3.6% | 4.0% |
| 2024 | $2.66 | +14.7% | 4.2% | 4.6% |
| 2023 | $2.32 | +14.9% | 7.2% | 7.8% |
| 2022 | $2.02 | +13.5% | 7.5% | 8.0% |
FAQ
7 questionsMCK Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is McKesson Corporation (MCK) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
McKesson Corporation (MCK) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 31 analysts covering the stock, 25 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 6 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $995, implying +32.5% from the current price of $751. The bear case scenario is $598 and the bull case is $1251.
02What is the MCK stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for MCK is $995 based on 31 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $1085 (+44.5% from today), and the low-end target is $875 (+16.6%). The base case model target is $949.
03Is McKesson Corporation (MCK) stock overvalued in 2026?
MCK trades at 17.0x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals slightly cheap versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for McKesson Corporation (MCK) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for MCK in 2026 are: (1) Pricing and reimbursement pressure — Intensified pricing and reimbursement pressure could negatively impact margins and growth, potentially pushing shares toward lower targets. (2) Margin recovery risks — Slower-than-expected margin recovery could hinder financial performance and investor confidence. (3) Execution setbacks — Operational or strategic execution setbacks may lead to underperformance relative to growth expectations. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is McKesson Corporation's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates MCK will report consensus revenue of $434.7B (+7.8% year-over-year) and EPS of $42.88 (+10.5% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $461.2B in revenue.
06When does McKesson Corporation (MCK) report its next earnings?
McKesson Corporation is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-08-05. Consensus expects EPS of $9.63 and revenue of $104.0B. Over recent quarters, MCK has beaten EPS estimates 83% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does McKesson Corporation generate?
McKesson Corporation (MCK) generated $5.9B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 1.5%. MCK returns capital to shareholders through dividends (0.4% yield) and share repurchases ($4.8B TTM).