Upside case
Bull case
$789+312.1%
CAH would need investors to value it at roughly 76x earnings — about 58x more generous than today's 19x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Cardinal Health, Inc. (CAH) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
33
analysts
18 bullish · 0 bearish · 33 covering CAH
Strong Buy
0
Buy
18
Hold
15
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$250
+30.4% vs today
Scenario Range
— – $789
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
33
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
18.5x
Forward P/E · Market cap $45.1B
CAH price targets
Three scenarios for where CAH stock could go
Current
~$191
Confidence
78 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $191
Base
$263
Bull
$789
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$263+37.5%
At 25x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Cardinal Health, Inc.
CAH · NYSEHealthcareMedical - DistributionJune year-end
Cardinal Health is a major healthcare products distributor and services provider connecting manufacturers with hospitals, pharmacies, and other healthcare providers. It generates revenue primarily through pharmaceutical distribution (~90% of sales) and medical products distribution (~10%), with additional income from value-added services like medication management and nuclear pharmacy operations. The company's competitive advantage lies in its massive scale, extensive logistics network, and deep relationships across the healthcare supply chain that create significant barriers to entry.
Market Cap
$45.1B
Revenue TTM
$250.5B
Net Income TTM
$1.6B
Net Margin
0.6%
CAH Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
100%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
67%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+11.3%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$2.08/$2.04
Revenue
$60.2B/$60.9B
Q4 2025
EPS
$2.55/$2.18
Revenue
$64.0B/$59.2B
Q1 2026
EPS
$2.63/$2.34
Revenue
$65.6B/$65.1B
Q2 2026
EPS
$3.17/$2.79
Revenue
$60.9B/$62.1B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $2.08/$2.04 | +2.0% | $60.2B/$60.9B | -1.2% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.55/$2.18 | +17.0% | $64.0B/$59.2B | +8.1% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.63/$2.34 | +12.4% | $65.6B/$65.1B | +0.8% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.17/$2.79 | +13.6% | $60.9B/$62.1B | -1.9% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$257.8B
+2.9% YoY
FY2
$269.4B
+4.5% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$8.33
+26.0% YoY
FY2
$8.87
+6.5% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$4.4B
FCF Margin: 1.8%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
CAH beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
CAH Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $222.7B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Pharmaceutical Member
91.9%
-2.6% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
99.3%
-1.9% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Pharmaceutical Member is the largest disclosed segment at 91.9% of FY 2025 revenue, down 2.6% YoY.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 99.3%, down 1.9% YoY.
CAH Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Undervalued
Fair value est. $300 — implies +53.7% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
53.7%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
CAH
29.7x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
+18% premium
vs Healthcare Trailing P/E
CAH
29.7x
vs
Healthcare
22.1x
+34% premium
vs CAH 5Y Avg P/E
Today
29.7x
vs
5Y Average
39.3x
24% discount
Forward PE
18.5x
S&P 500
19.1x
-3%
Healthcare
19.0x
-3%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
29.7x
S&P 500
25.2x
+18%
Healthcare
22.1x
+34%
5Y Avg
39.3x
-24%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.75x
—
Healthcare
1.52x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
16.5x
S&P 500
15.3x
+8%
Healthcare
14.1x
+17%
5Y Avg
15.4x
+7%
Price/FCF
24.4x
S&P 500
21.3x
+14%
Healthcare
18.7x
+31%
5Y Avg
10.7x
+127%
Price/Sales
0.2x
S&P 500
3.1x
-94%
Healthcare
2.8x
-93%
5Y Avg
0.1x
+70%
Dividend Yield
1.07%
S&P 500
1.88%
-43%
Healthcare
1.40%
-24%
5Y Avg
2.53%
-58%
| Metric | CAH | S&P 500 | Healthcare | 5Y Avg CAH |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 18.5x | 19.1x | 19.0x | — |
| Trailing PE | 29.7x | 25.2x+18% | 22.1x+34% | 39.3x-24% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.75x | 1.52x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 16.5x | 15.3x | 14.1x+17% | 15.4x |
| Price/FCF | 24.4x | 21.3x+14% | 18.7x+31% | 10.7x+127% |
| Price/Sales | 0.2x | 3.1x-94% | 2.8x-93% | 0.1x+70% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.07% | 1.88% | 1.40% | 2.53% |
CAH trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 2 of 5 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolCAH Financial Health
Verdict
Adequate
CAH 3378.7% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage — returns 2.8% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$250.5B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+12.8%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
3.7%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
0.9%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
0.6%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$6.61
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$4.4B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
1.8%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
3378.7%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
2.8%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$3.9B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$5.5B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
1.2× FCF
~1.2 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
—
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
2.8%
Dividend
1.1%
Buyback
1.7%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$765M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$2.04
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
31.6%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
235M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageCAH Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Supply Chain & Manufacturing
Disruptions in the supply chain, manufacturing processes, product quality concerns, and potential product recalls pose significant operational risks that could materially impact revenue and margins. Such events can lead to costly recalls, regulatory penalties, and loss of customer trust.
High Risk
Cybersecurity Breach
A material cyber-attack or data breach could adversely affect Cardinal Health’s business and operations. Loss of confidential data, system downtime, and regulatory scrutiny could result in financial losses and reputational damage.
Medium
Debt & Financing
Risks associated with debt levels, funding, financing, and interest rate fluctuations may affect the company’s cost of capital and liquidity. Rising rates or limited access to capital could constrain growth initiatives and increase financing costs.
Medium
Regulatory Environment
Uncertainty with government initiatives, such as pricing regulations for pharmaceuticals, presents a risk to profitability. Regulatory changes could alter pricing structures and impact revenue streams.
Medium
Market Demand
Seasonality and reliance on key customers create demand risk. Fluctuations in demand or loss of major customers could negatively affect sales and cash flow.
Lower
Geopolitical Risks
Perceived geopolitical risks, such as those related to Iran, have impacted the stock price, although the company’s exposure is considered minimal. Geopolitical events could still influence market sentiment and investor confidence.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why CAH Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Strong Revenue Momentum
Cardinal Health posted a nearly 19% increase in revenue in the most recent quarter compared with the same period a year earlier, underscoring robust demand for its services. This growth rate outpaces many peers in the healthcare distribution sector.
Earnings Beat Track Record
The company’s quarterly earnings have consistently exceeded analyst expectations, demonstrating disciplined cost management and pricing power. This pattern of earnings beats reinforces confidence in its operating model.
Dividend Aristocrat Status
Cardinal Health is a Dividend Aristocrat, offering a stable passive income stream with an annual yield of 1.8%. The consistent dividend growth aligns with its long‑term shareholder return strategy.
Consistent Sales Growth
Over the years, Cardinal Health has maintained steady sales growth, reflecting its strong market position and customer base. This long‑term trend supports continued revenue expansion.
FY25 Earnings Upside
Analysts project significant earnings growth for the current year and anticipate an additional increase in FY25, indicating continued profitability momentum. This forecast highlights the company’s potential for higher earnings in the near future.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
CAH Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$191.49
52W Range Position
56%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$137.75
+39.0% from the low
52-Week High
$233.60
-18.0% from the high
1 Month
-9.94%
3 Month
-15.39%
YTD
-6.9%
1 Year
+26.2%
3Y CAGR
+31.5%
5Y CAGR
+27.6%
10Y CAGR
+9.6%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
CAH vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
18.5x
vs 13.6x median
+36% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+2.9%
vs +3.7% median
-22% below peer median
Net Margin
0.6%
vs 2.2% median
-72% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CAH CAH Cardinal Health, Inc. | $45.1B | 18.5x | +2.9% | 0.6% | Buy | +30.4% |
MCK MCK McKesson Corporation | $91.1B | 19.1x | +10.0% | 1.1% | Buy | +35.3% |
HSI HSIC Henry Schein, Inc. | $8.3B | 13.6x | +3.7% | 3.0% | Hold | +19.3% |
OMI OMI Owens & Minor, Inc. | $171M | 2.3x | -26.3% | -39.8% | Hold | +78.6% |
NXS NXST Nexstar Media Group, Inc. | $6.0B | 8.0x | -2.3% | 2.2% | Buy | +26.8% |
JNJ JNJ Johnson & Johnson | $541.3B | 19.4x | +6.4% | 27.3% | Buy | +11.0% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
CAH Dividend and Capital Return
CAH returns capital mainly through $765M/year in buybacks (1.7% buyback yield), with a modest 1.07% dividend — combining for 2.8% total shareholder yield. The dividend has grown for 20 consecutive years.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
2.8%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
1.7%
Dividend Yield
1.07%
Payout Ratio
31.6%
How CAH Splits Its Return
Div 1.07%
Buyback 1.7%
Dividend 1.07%Buybacks 1.7%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$2.04
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
20Y
3Y Div CAGR
0.9%
5Y Div CAGR
0.9%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$765M
Estimated Shares Retired
4M
Approx. Share Reduction
1.7%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
235M
At 1.7%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $1.02 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $2.03 | +34.4% | 1.9% | 3.1% |
| 2024 | $1.51 | -24.3% | 3.1% | 5.1% |
| 2023 | $2.00 | +1.0% | 8.1% | 10.2% |
| 2022 | $1.98 | +1.0% | 6.9% | 10.7% |
FAQ
7 questionsCAH Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Cardinal Health, Inc. (CAH) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Cardinal Health, Inc. (CAH) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 33 analysts covering the stock, 18 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 15 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $250, implying +30.4% from the current price of $191.
02What is the CAH stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for CAH is $250 based on 33 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $275 (+43.6% from today), and the low-end target is $220 (+14.9%). The base case model target is $263.
03Is Cardinal Health, Inc. (CAH) stock overvalued in 2026?
CAH trades at 18.5x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Cardinal Health, Inc. (CAH) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for CAH in 2026 are: (1) Supply Chain & Manufacturing — Disruptions in the supply chain, manufacturing processes, product quality concerns, and potential product recalls pose significant operational risks that could materially impact revenue and margins. (2) Cybersecurity Breach — A material cyber-attack or data breach could adversely affect Cardinal Health’s business and operations. (3) Debt & Financing — Risks associated with debt levels, funding, financing, and interest rate fluctuations may affect the company’s cost of capital and liquidity. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Cardinal Health, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates CAH will report consensus revenue of $257.8B (+2.9% year-over-year) and EPS of $8.33 (+26.0% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $269.4B in revenue.
06When does Cardinal Health, Inc. (CAH) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for CAH is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Cardinal Health, Inc. generate?
Cardinal Health, Inc. (CAH) generated $4.4B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 1.8%. CAH returns capital to shareholders through dividends (1.1% yield) and share repurchases ($765M TTM).