Upside case
Bull case
$372+67.6%
CAH would need investors to value it at roughly 35x earnings — about 14x more generous than today's 21x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Cardinal Health, Inc. (CAH) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
33
analysts
18 bullish · 0 bearish · 33 covering CAH
Strong Buy
0
Buy
18
Hold
15
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$253
+14.3% vs today
Scenario Range
$178 – $372
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
33
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
20.6x
Forward P/E · Market cap $52.2B
CAH price targets
Three scenarios for where CAH stock could go
Current
~$222
Confidence
49 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $222
Bear
$178
Base
$282
Bull
$372
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$282+27.2%
At 26x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$178-19.9%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 4x multiple contraction could push CAH down roughly 20% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Cardinal Health, Inc.
CAH · NYSEHealthcareMedical - DistributionJune year-end
Cardinal Health is a major healthcare products distributor and services provider connecting manufacturers with hospitals, pharmacies, and other healthcare providers. It generates revenue primarily through pharmaceutical distribution (~90% of sales) and medical products distribution (~10%), with additional income from value-added services like medication management and nuclear pharmacy operations. The company's competitive advantage lies in its massive scale, extensive logistics network, and deep relationships across the healthcare supply chain that create significant barriers to entry.
Market Cap
$52.2B
Revenue TTM
$250.5B
Net Income TTM
$1.6B
Net Margin
0.6%
CAH Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
100%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
67%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+11.3%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$2.08/$2.04
Revenue
$60.2B/$60.9B
Q4 2025
EPS
$2.55/$2.18
Revenue
$64.0B/$59.2B
Q1 2026
EPS
$2.63/$2.34
Revenue
$65.6B/$65.1B
Q2 2026
EPS
$3.17/$2.79
Revenue
$60.9B/$62.1B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $2.08/$2.04 | +2.0% | $60.2B/$60.9B | -1.2% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.55/$2.18 | +17.0% | $64.0B/$59.2B | +8.1% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.63/$2.34 | +12.4% | $65.6B/$65.1B | +0.8% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.17/$2.79 | +13.6% | $60.9B/$62.1B | -1.9% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$265.6B
+6.0% YoY
FY2
$277.5B
+4.5% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$7.78
+17.8% YoY
FY2
$8.13
+4.4% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$4.4B
FCF Margin: 1.8%
Next Earnings
August 11, 2026
Expected EPS
$2.41
Expected Revenue
$65.2B
CAH beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
CAH Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $222.7B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Pharmaceutical Member
91.9%
-2.6% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
99.3%
-1.9% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Pharmaceutical Member is the largest disclosed segment at 91.9% of FY 2025 revenue, down 2.6% YoY.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 99.3%, down 1.9% YoY.
CAH Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Expensive versus peers
Fair value est. $159 — implies -28.3% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
28.3%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
CAH
34.4x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
+41% premium
vs Healthcare Trailing P/E
CAH
34.4x
vs
Healthcare
22.1x
+55% premium
vs CAH 5Y Avg P/E
Today
34.4x
vs
5Y Average
39.3x
12% discount
Forward PE
20.6x
S&P 500
18.8x
+9%
Healthcare
18.3x
+13%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
34.4x
S&P 500
24.4x
+41%
Healthcare
22.1x
+55%
5Y Avg
39.3x
-12%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.66x
—
Healthcare
1.59x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
18.8x
S&P 500
15.2x
+24%
Healthcare
14.2x
+32%
5Y Avg
15.4x
+22%
Price/FCF
28.2x
S&P 500
20.7x
+36%
Healthcare
18.5x
+52%
5Y Avg
10.7x
+163%
Price/Sales
0.2x
S&P 500
3.1x
-92%
Healthcare
2.6x
-91%
5Y Avg
0.1x
+97%
Dividend Yield
0.92%
S&P 500
1.91%
-52%
Healthcare
1.50%
-39%
5Y Avg
2.53%
-64%
| Metric | CAH | S&P 500 | Healthcare | 5Y Avg CAH |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 20.6x | 18.8x | 18.3x+13% | — |
| Trailing PE | 34.4x | 24.4x+41% | 22.1x+55% | 39.3x-12% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.66x | 1.59x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 18.8x | 15.2x+24% | 14.2x+32% | 15.4x+22% |
| Price/FCF | 28.2x | 20.7x+36% | 18.5x+52% | 10.7x+163% |
| Price/Sales | 0.2x | 3.1x-92% | 2.6x-91% | 0.1x+97% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.92% | 1.91% | 1.50% | 2.53% |
CAH trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 3 of 5 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolCAH Financial Health
Verdict
Adequate
CAH 3378.7% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage — returns 2.4% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$250.5B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+12.8%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
3.7%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
0.9%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
0.6%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$6.61
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$4.4B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
1.8%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
3378.7%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
2.8%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$3.9B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$5.5B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
1.2× FCF
~1.2 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
—
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
2.4%
Dividend
0.9%
Buyback
1.5%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$765M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$2.04
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
31.6%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
235M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageCAH Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
High Risk
Opioid litigation risk
Cardinal Health faces ongoing risks related to opioid misuse litigation, which could lead to significant financial penalties and reputational damage.
Medium
Revenue growth pressure
Flat revenue growth in recent quarters, excluding one-time impacts, suggests potential challenges in sustaining top-line expansion.
High Risk
Earnings miss
The stock declined due to Q3 FY2026 revenue missing analyst expectations, indicating potential operational or demand headwinds.
Medium
Customer contract expiration
Revenue growth was impacted by the expiration of a major customer contract, highlighting customer concentration risks.
Lower
Share repurchase execution
Aggressive share repurchases may strain cash flow or limit financial flexibility if not managed alongside debt reduction.
Medium
Disclosed risk factors
The company disclosed 12 risk factors in its earnings report, signaling multiple potential challenges across its business.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why CAH Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
Opioid crisis response leadership
Cardinal Health is actively combating opioid misuse in America, reinforcing its role in securing the pharmaceutical supply chain.
Strong revenue growth
Q4 revenue of $64 billion marked an 8.4% beat, with the strongest sequential acceleration in 7 quarters, driven by 32% growth in Specialty Solutions.
Attractive valuation metrics
CAH's trailing P/E of 24.57 and forward P/E of 16.92 suggest potential undervaluation relative to growth prospects.
Market leadership in distribution
As one of the nation's largest pharmaceutical and medical supply distributors, Cardinal Health holds a dominant position in the healthcare sector.
Diversified business segments
The company operates two main segments: Pharmaceutical distribution (90% of revenues) and Medical products/services (10%), providing balanced revenue streams.
Specialty Solutions growth
Explosive 32% growth in the Specialty Solutions division highlights a key driver of revenue acceleration and future potential.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
CAH Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$221.77
52W Range Position
88%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$137.75
+61.0% from the low
52-Week High
$233.60
-5.1% from the high
1 Month
+11.01%
3 Month
+4.67%
YTD
+7.8%
1 Year
+34.1%
3Y CAGR
+34.5%
5Y CAGR
+31.7%
10Y CAGR
+11.2%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
CAH vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
20.6x
vs 14.9x median
+38% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+6.0%
vs +7.0% median
-14% below peer median
Net Margin
0.6%
vs 3.0% median
-79% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CAH CAH Cardinal Health, Inc. | $52.2B | 20.6x | +6.0% | 0.6% | Buy | +14.3% |
MCK MCK McKesson Corporation | $90.2B | 17.0x | +7.8% | 1.2% | Buy | +32.5% |
HSI HSIC Henry Schein, Inc. | $9.2B | 14.9x | +5.5% | 3.0% | Buy | +9.4% |
OMI OMI Owens & Minor, Inc. | $171M | 2.3x | -1.0% | -39.8% | Hold | +596.4% |
NXS NXST Nexstar Media Group, Inc. | $5.0B | 4.9x | +8.1% | 3.2% | Buy | +52.3% |
JNJ JNJ Johnson & Johnson | $550.4B | 19.7x | +7.0% | 27.3% | Buy | +10.1% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
CAH Dividend and Capital Return
CAH returns capital mainly through $765M/year in buybacks (1.5% buyback yield), with a modest 0.92% dividend — combining for 2.4% total shareholder yield. The dividend has grown for 40 consecutive years.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
2.4%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
1.5%
Dividend Yield
0.92%
Payout Ratio
31.6%
How CAH Splits Its Return
Div 0.92%
Buyback 1.5%
Dividend 0.92%Buybacks 1.5%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$2.04
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
40Y
3Y Div CAGR
0.9%
5Y Div CAGR
0.9%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
5 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$765M
Estimated Shares Retired
3M
Approx. Share Reduction
1.5%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
235M
At 1.5%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $1.54 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $2.03 | +34.4% | 1.9% | 3.1% |
| 2024 | $1.51 | -24.3% | 3.1% | 5.1% |
| 2023 | $2.00 | +1.0% | 8.1% | 10.2% |
| 2022 | $1.98 | +1.0% | 6.9% | 10.7% |
FAQ
7 questionsCAH Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Cardinal Health, Inc. (CAH) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Cardinal Health, Inc. (CAH) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 33 analysts covering the stock, 18 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 15 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $253, implying +14.3% from the current price of $222. The bear case scenario is $178 and the bull case is $372.
02What is the CAH stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for CAH is $253 based on 33 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $275 (+24.0% from today), and the low-end target is $235 (+6.0%). The base case model target is $282.
03Is Cardinal Health, Inc. (CAH) stock overvalued in 2026?
CAH trades at 20.6x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals expensive versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Cardinal Health, Inc. (CAH) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for CAH in 2026 are: (1) Opioid litigation risk — Cardinal Health faces ongoing risks related to opioid misuse litigation, which could lead to significant financial penalties and reputational damage. (2) Earnings miss — The stock declined due to Q3 FY2026 revenue missing analyst expectations, indicating potential operational or demand headwinds. (3) Revenue growth pressure — Flat revenue growth in recent quarters, excluding one-time impacts, suggests potential challenges in sustaining top-line expansion. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Cardinal Health, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates CAH will report consensus revenue of $265.6B (+6.0% year-over-year) and EPS of $7.78 (+17.8% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $277.5B in revenue.
06When does Cardinal Health, Inc. (CAH) report its next earnings?
Cardinal Health, Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-08-11. Consensus expects EPS of $2.41 and revenue of $65.2B. Over recent quarters, CAH has beaten EPS estimates 100% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Cardinal Health, Inc. generate?
Cardinal Health, Inc. (CAH) generated $4.4B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 1.8%. CAH returns capital to shareholders through dividends (0.9% yield) and share repurchases ($765M TTM).