Upside case
Bull case
$40+87.2%
JHX would need investors to value it at roughly 37x earnings — about 17x more generous than today's 20x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
James Hardie Industries plc (JHX) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
16
analysts
11 bullish · 2 bearish · 16 covering JHX
Strong Buy
0
Buy
11
Hold
3
Sell
2
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$25
+14.4% vs today
Scenario Range
$15 – $40
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
16
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
19.5x
Forward P/E · Market cap $12.4B
JHX price targets
Three scenarios for where JHX stock could go
Current
~$21
Confidence
62 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $21
Bear
$15
Base
$19
Bull
$40
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$19-10.4%
This is close to how the market is already pricing JHX — at roughly 18x forward earnings. No dramatic re-rating needed, just steady execution on the core business.
Stress case
Bear case
$15-27.7%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 5x multiple contraction could push JHX down roughly 28% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
James Hardie Industries plc
JHX · NYSEBasic MaterialsConstruction MaterialsMarch year-end
James Hardie is a global manufacturer of fiber cement building products used primarily for exterior siding and interior applications in residential and commercial construction. It generates revenue through three geographic segments — North America Fiber Cement (~80% of sales), Asia Pacific Fiber Cement, and Europe Building Products — selling siding, interior linings, and related accessories. The company's moat lies in its leading brand recognition for durable, low-maintenance fiber cement siding and its extensive distribution network across key construction markets.
Market Cap
$12.4B
Revenue TTM
$4.4B
Net Income TTM
$119M
Net Margin
2.7%
JHX Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
82%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
58%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+1.9%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$0.36/$0.36
Revenue
$972M/$992M
Q3 2025
EPS
$0.29/$0.33
Revenue
$900M/$952M
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.26/$0.26
Revenue
$1.3B/$1.3B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.24/$0.23
Revenue
$1.2B/$1.2B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $0.36/$0.36 | +0.2% | $972M/$992M | -2.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $0.29/$0.33 | -13.2% | $900M/$952M | -5.5% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.26/$0.26 | +1.1% | $1.3B/$1.3B | +0.7% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.24/$0.23 | +4.3% | $1.2B/$1.2B | +2.4% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$4.5B
+3.0% YoY
FY2
$4.7B
+3.6% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$0.67
+225.9% YoY
FY2
$0.88
+32.0% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$206M
FCF Margin: 4.7%
Next Earnings
May 19, 2026
Expected EPS
$0.29
Expected Revenue
$1.4B
JHX beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
JHX Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $3.9B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
69.8%
YoY unavailable
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 69.8%, with no year-over-year comparison yet.
JHX Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Undervalued
Fair value est. $47 — implies +127.8% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
127.8%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
JHX
21.9x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
13% discount
vs Basic Materials Trailing P/E
JHX
21.9x
vs
Basic Materials
22.9x
In line with benchmark
vs JHX 5Y Avg P/E
Today
21.9x
vs
5Y Average
31.8x
31% discount
Forward PE
19.5x
S&P 500
19.1x
+2%
Basic Materials
15.4x
+27%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
21.9x
S&P 500
25.2x
-13%
Basic Materials
22.9x
-5%
5Y Avg
31.8x
-31%
PEG Ratio
1.73x
S&P 500
1.75x
-1%
Basic Materials
1.22x
+42%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
15.0x
S&P 500
15.3x
-2%
Basic Materials
11.4x
+31%
5Y Avg
16.8x
-11%
Price/FCF
32.6x
S&P 500
21.3x
+53%
Basic Materials
27.5x
+19%
5Y Avg
28.0x
+16%
Price/Sales
3.2x
S&P 500
3.1x
+2%
Basic Materials
2.0x
+63%
5Y Avg
3.6x
-12%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.88%
—
Basic Materials
1.37%
—
5Y Avg
2.47%
—
| Metric | JHX | S&P 500 | Basic Materials | 5Y Avg JHX |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 19.5x | 19.1x | 15.4x+27% | — |
| Trailing PE | 21.9x | 25.2x-13% | 22.9x | 31.8x-31% |
| PEG Ratio | 1.73x | 1.75x | 1.22x+42% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 15.0x | 15.3x | 11.4x+31% | 16.8x-11% |
| Price/FCF | 32.6x | 21.3x+53% | 27.5x+19% | 28.0x+16% |
| Price/Sales | 3.2x | 3.1x | 2.0x+63% | 3.6x-12% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.88% | 1.37% | 2.47% |
JHX trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 1 of 6 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolJHX Financial Health
Verdict
Adequate
JHX 17.9% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage — returns 1.2% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$4.4B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+12.6%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
35.9%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
12.2%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
2.7%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$0.20
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$206M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
4.7%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
17.9%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
0.9%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$563M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$642M
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
3.1× FCF
~3.1 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
1.9%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
1.2%
Dividend
—
Buyback
1.2%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$150M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
432M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageJHX Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
US Housing Market Sensitivity
Approximately 70% of James Hardie's revenue in 2024 is derived from the North American residential market. A downturn or prolonged weakness in this market, exacerbated by high interest rates, could significantly reduce demand for their building materials.
High Risk
Legal Challenges and Liabilities
James Hardie is currently facing multiple class-action lawsuits, including allegations of securities fraud, which could result in substantial financial liabilities. Additionally, ongoing asbestos-related liabilities pose significant financial and reputational risks.
Medium
Acquisition Integration Risks
The integration of acquisitions, such as the AZEK acquisition, presents execution risks that could negatively affect earnings. Successfully merging operations and achieving projected synergies are crucial, and any missteps could hinder financial performance.
Medium
Debt Load and Financial Leverage
James Hardie's net debt to EBITDA ratio was noted at 4.3 in late 2025, indicating a substantial debt load. While interest coverage is currently manageable, a decline in earnings could complicate debt management.
Medium
Competition
The company faces intense competition from alternative materials such as vinyl, engineered wood, and metal siding. Competitors may offer lower prices or faster installation times, which could pressure James Hardie's market share and profit margins.
Lower
Operational and Cost Pressures
Restructuring and transformation efforts may lead to increased operational expenses. Challenges in production cost absorption and research and development allocations have also impacted margins.
Lower
Broader Economic Conditions
Changes in global economic, political, and business conditions, along with shifts in inflation and interest rates, can affect the company's performance. Investor sentiment towards cyclical and industrial stocks may introduce additional volatility.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why JHX Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Market Leadership and Material Substitution
James Hardie is the largest manufacturer of fiber cement in North America, a key material for exterior siding. The company benefits from a trend where builders and consumers are increasingly opting for fiber cement over traditional materials.
Synergies from Acquisitions
The acquisition of The AZEK Company is expected to create significant cross-selling opportunities and drive operating leverage, leading to margin expansion.
Margin Improvement Potential
Analysts believe that James Hardie can improve its EBITDA margins from around 25% to 30% through disciplined cost control and operational efficiencies.
Revenue Growth
The company is projected to achieve revenue growth of 6-7% annually through FY28, driven by cross-selling synergies and strong demand in the repair and remodel (R&R) sector.
Strong Recent Financial Performance
Despite some short-term cyclical headwinds, the company has demonstrated robust financial performance, with net sales rising 30% in a recent quarter, driven by the AZEK acquisition and disciplined execution.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
JHX Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$21.42
52W Range Position
37%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$16.46
+30.1% from the low
52-Week High
$29.83
-28.2% from the high
1 Month
+12.62%
3 Month
-9.39%
YTD
+2.9%
1 Year
-9.8%
3Y CAGR
-2.9%
5Y CAGR
-8.8%
10Y CAGR
+4.1%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
JHX vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
19.5x
vs 20.0x median
-2% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+3.0%
vs +2.9% median
+5% above peer median
Net Margin
2.7%
vs 16.2% median
-83% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
JHX JHX James Hardie Industries plc | $12.4B | 19.5x | +3.0% | 2.7% | Buy | +14.4% |
MAS MAS Masco Corporation | $14.5B | 16.9x | -1.1% | 10.9% | Buy | +14.5% |
TRE TREX Trex Company, Inc. | $4.2B | 24.4x | +2.9% | 16.2% | Hold | +11.5% |
IBP IBP Installed Building Products, Inc. | $8.1B | 26.9x | +3.3% | 8.9% | Hold | -2.0% |
AWI AWI Armstrong World Industries, Inc. | $7.1B | 20.0x | +10.6% | 18.6% | Buy | +18.8% |
EXP EXP Eagle Materials Inc. | $7.0B | 16.8x | +2.6% | 19.4% | Buy | +3.3% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
JHX Dividend and Capital Return
JHX returns 1.2% annually — null% through dividends and 1.2% through buybacks.
Dividend UnknownFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
1.2%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
1.2%
Dividend Yield
—
Payout Ratio
—
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.00
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
—
5Y Div CAGR
—
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Annual
0 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$150M
Estimated Shares Retired
7M
Approx. Share Reduction
1.6%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
432M
At 1.6%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | $0.30 | -72.7% | 0.0% | 3.6% |
| 2021 | $1.10 | — | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2019 | $0.33 | -10.8% | 0.0% | 3.0% |
| 2018 | $0.37 | +5.7% | 0.0% | 2.2% |
| 2017 | $0.35 | -4.1% | 1.4% | 3.9% |
FAQ
7 questionsJHX Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is James Hardie Industries plc (JHX) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
James Hardie Industries plc (JHX) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 16 analysts covering the stock, 11 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 3 rate it Hold, and 2 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $25, implying +14.4% from the current price of $21. The bear case scenario is $15 and the bull case is $40.
02What is the JHX stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for JHX is $25 based on 16 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $30 (+40.1% from today), and the low-end target is $21 (-2.0%). The base case model target is $19.
03Is James Hardie Industries plc (JHX) stock overvalued in 2026?
JHX trades at 19.5x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for James Hardie Industries plc (JHX) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for JHX in 2026 are: (1) US Housing Market Sensitivity — Approximately 70% of James Hardie's revenue in 2024 is derived from the North American residential market. (2) Legal Challenges and Liabilities — James Hardie is currently facing multiple class-action lawsuits, including allegations of securities fraud, which could result in substantial financial liabilities. (3) Acquisition Integration Risks — The integration of acquisitions, such as the AZEK acquisition, presents execution risks that could negatively affect earnings. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is James Hardie Industries plc's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates JHX will report consensus revenue of $4.5B (+3.0% year-over-year) and EPS of $0.67 (+225.9% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $4.7B in revenue.
06When does James Hardie Industries plc (JHX) report its next earnings?
James Hardie Industries plc is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-05-19. Consensus expects EPS of $0.29 and revenue of $1.4B. Over recent quarters, JHX has beaten EPS estimates 82% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does James Hardie Industries plc generate?
James Hardie Industries plc (JHX) generated $206M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 4.7%. JHX returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($150M TTM).