Upside case
Bull case
$15-41.1%
The bull case prices JHX at 13x on FY1 earnings, assuming continued execution and no meaningful deceleration in the core business.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
James Hardie Industries plc (JHX) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
16
analysts
11 bullish · 2 bearish · 16 covering JHX
Strong Buy
0
Buy
11
Hold
3
Sell
2
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$26
+2.5% vs today
Scenario Range
$7 – $15
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
16
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
22.7x
Forward P/E · Market cap $14.4B
JHX price targets
Three scenarios for where JHX stock could go
Current
~$25
Confidence
47 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $25
Bear
$7
Base
$11
Bull
$15
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$11-55.3%
At 10x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$7-71.8%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 16x multiple contraction could push JHX down roughly 72% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
James Hardie Industries plc
JHX · NYSEBasic MaterialsConstruction MaterialsMarch year-end
James Hardie is a global manufacturer of fiber cement building products used primarily for exterior siding and interior applications in residential and commercial construction. It generates revenue through three geographic segments — North America Fiber Cement (~80% of sales), Asia Pacific Fiber Cement, and Europe Building Products — selling siding, interior linings, and related accessories. The company's moat lies in its leading brand recognition for durable, low-maintenance fiber cement siding and its extensive distribution network across key construction markets.
Market Cap
$14.4B
Revenue TTM
$4.8B
Net Income TTM
$104M
Net Margin
2.2%
JHX Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
73%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
50%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+1.6%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 2 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.29/$0.33
Revenue
$900M/$952M
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.26/$0.26
Revenue
$1.3B/$1.3B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.24/$0.23
Revenue
$1.2B/$1.2B
Q2 2026
EPS
$0.30/$0.30
Revenue
$1.4B/$1.4B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.29/$0.33 | -13.2% | $900M/$952M | -5.5% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.26/$0.26 | +1.1% | $1.3B/$1.3B | +0.7% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.24/$0.23 | +4.3% | $1.2B/$1.2B | +2.4% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.30/$0.30 | -0.2% | $1.4B/$1.4B | -0.6% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$5.2B
+6.6% YoY
FY2
$5.5B
+6.0% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$0.48
+149.8% YoY
FY2
$0.62
+29.7% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$203M
FCF Margin: 4.2%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
JHX beat EPS estimates in 2 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
JHX Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2026
Total disclosed revenue $4.8B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
73.3%
+30.9% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 73.3%, up 30.9% YoY.
JHX Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Expensive versus peers
Fair value est. $13 — implies -46.7% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
46.7%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
JHX
130.9x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
+435% premium
vs Basic Materials Trailing P/E
JHX
130.9x
vs
Basic Materials
23.6x
+455% premium
vs JHX 5Y Avg P/E
Today
130.9x
vs
5Y Average
41.3x
+217% premium
Forward PE
22.7x
S&P 500
18.8x
+21%
Basic Materials
14.9x
+53%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
130.9x
S&P 500
24.4x
+435%
Basic Materials
23.6x
+455%
5Y Avg
41.3x
+217%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.66x
—
Basic Materials
1.23x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
27.8x
S&P 500
15.2x
+83%
Basic Materials
11.0x
+153%
5Y Avg
16.5x
+69%
Price/FCF
70.1x
S&P 500
20.7x
+239%
Basic Materials
29.0x
+142%
5Y Avg
35.5x
+97%
Price/Sales
3.0x
S&P 500
3.1x
-3%
Basic Materials
1.9x
+59%
5Y Avg
3.1x
-4%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.91%
—
Basic Materials
1.41%
—
5Y Avg
2.47%
—
| Metric | JHX | S&P 500 | Basic Materials | 5Y Avg JHX |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 22.7x | 18.8x+21% | 14.9x+53% | — |
| Trailing PE | 130.9x | 24.4x+435% | 23.6x+455% | 41.3x+217% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.66x | 1.23x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 27.8x | 15.2x+83% | 11.0x+153% | 16.5x+69% |
| Price/FCF | 70.1x | 20.7x+239% | 29.0x+142% | 35.5x+97% |
| Price/Sales | 3.0x | 3.1x | 1.9x+59% | 3.1x |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.91% | 1.41% | 2.47% |
JHX trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 4 of 5 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolJHX Financial Health
Verdict
Adequate
Key financial metrics for JHX are shown below.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$4.8B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+24.7%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
35.8%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
13.3%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
2.2%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$0.19
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$203M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
4.2%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
4.9%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
0.9%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$344M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$4.4B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
21.9× FCF
~21.9 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
1.9%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.0%
Dividend
—
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
580M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageJHX Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
High Risk
Housing market weakness
Weakness in the global housing industry is impacting demand for James Hardie's products, contributing to a significant share price decline.
High Risk
Acquisition integration risk
The acquisition of Azek, the largest in its history, has introduced integration risks and contributed to weak earnings guidance for fiscal 2026.
Medium
Earnings guidance downgrade
Weak earnings guidance for fiscal 2026 has negatively impacted investor sentiment and the stock's performance.
Medium
Macroeconomic sensitivity
James Hardie's performance is highly sensitive to macroeconomic conditions, particularly in the housing sector, which remains uncertain.
Lower
Governance and synergies
Governance upgrades and progressing synergies have partially offset downside risks, but challenges remain in execution.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why JHX Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
AZEK acquisition synergy
The acquisition of AZEK presents significant synergy potential, driving margin expansion and long-term growth.
Strong R&R market exposure
James Hardie benefits from robust exposure to the repair and remodeling (R&R) market, supporting steady demand.
Margin expansion story
The company is positioned as a margin-expansion play, with integration risks balanced by structural growth opportunities.
Synergy realization key
The bullish thesis hinges on the successful realization of synergies from recent acquisitions, which remains a critical driver.
Cash-rich recovery play
James Hardie is viewed as a cash-rich recovery play, offering complementary growth opportunities alongside margin expansion.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
JHX Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$24.87
52W Range Position
63%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$16.46
+51.1% from the low
52-Week High
$29.83
-16.6% from the high
1 Month
+25.48%
3 Month
+23.36%
YTD
+19.5%
1 Year
+2.4%
3Y CAGR
-3.2%
5Y CAGR
-6.3%
10Y CAGR
+5.0%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
JHX vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
22.7x
vs 19.0x median
+19% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+6.6%
vs +5.1% median
+30% above peer median
Net Margin
2.2%
vs 16.3% median
-87% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
JHX JHX James Hardie Industries plc | $14.4B | 22.7x | +6.6% | 2.2% | Buy | +2.5% |
MAS MAS Masco Corporation | $15.0B | 17.4x | +0.5% | 10.9% | Buy | +11.1% |
TRE TREX Trex Company, Inc. | $4.9B | 28.1x | +5.1% | 16.3% | Hold | +2.8% |
IBP IBP Installed Building Products, Inc. | $5.9B | 21.5x | +7.2% | 8.6% | Hold | +15.7% |
AWI AWI Armstrong World Industries, Inc. | $6.7B | 19.0x | +7.5% | 18.6% | Buy | +25.1% |
EXP EXP Eagle Materials Inc. | $7.0B | 17.4x | +3.7% | 18.4% | Buy | -2.8% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
JHX Dividend and Capital Return
JHX does not currently return meaningful capital to shareholders.
Dividend UnknownFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
0.0%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.0%
Dividend Yield
—
Payout Ratio
—
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.00
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
62.4%
5Y Div CAGR
32.0%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Annual
0 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$0
Estimated Shares Retired
0
Approx. Share Reduction
0.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
580M
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | $0.30 | -72.7% | 0.0% | 3.6% |
| 2021 | $1.10 | — | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2019 | $0.33 | -10.8% | 0.0% | 3.0% |
| 2018 | $0.37 | +5.7% | 0.0% | 2.2% |
| 2017 | $0.35 | -4.1% | 1.4% | 3.9% |
FAQ
7 questionsJHX Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is James Hardie Industries plc (JHX) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
James Hardie Industries plc (JHX) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 16 analysts covering the stock, 11 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 3 rate it Hold, and 2 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $26, implying +2.5% from the current price of $25. The bear case scenario is $7 and the bull case is $15.
02What is the JHX stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for JHX is $26 based on 16 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $30 (+20.6% from today), and the low-end target is $21 (-15.6%). The base case model target is $11.
03Is James Hardie Industries plc (JHX) stock overvalued in 2026?
JHX trades at 22.7x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals expensive versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for James Hardie Industries plc (JHX) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for JHX in 2026 are: (1) Housing market weakness — Weakness in the global housing industry is impacting demand for James Hardie's products, contributing to a significant share price decline. (2) Acquisition integration risk — The acquisition of Azek, the largest in its history, has introduced integration risks and contributed to weak earnings guidance for fiscal 2026. (3) Earnings guidance downgrade — Weak earnings guidance for fiscal 2026 has negatively impacted investor sentiment and the stock's performance. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is James Hardie Industries plc's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates JHX will report consensus revenue of $5.2B (+6.6% year-over-year) and EPS of $0.48 (+149.8% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $5.5B in revenue.
06When does James Hardie Industries plc (JHX) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for JHX is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does James Hardie Industries plc generate?
James Hardie Industries plc (JHX) generated $203M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 4.2%. JHX returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($0 TTM).