Upside case
Bull case
$93+29.1%
MAS would need investors to value it at roughly 22x earnings — about 5x more generous than today's 17x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Masco Corporation (MAS) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
38
analysts
21 bullish · 2 bearish · 38 covering MAS
Strong Buy
0
Buy
21
Hold
15
Sell
2
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$82
+14.5% vs today
Scenario Range
$53 – $93
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
38
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
16.9x
Forward P/E · Market cap $14.5B
MAS price targets
Three scenarios for where MAS stock could go
Current
~$72
Confidence
63 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $72
Bear
$53
Base
$85
Bull
$93
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$85+17.6%
At 20x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$53-26.8%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 5x multiple contraction could push MAS down roughly 27% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Masco Corporation
MAS · NYSEIndustrialsConstructionDecember year-end
Masco Corporation is a leading manufacturer of home improvement and building products, primarily focused on plumbing fixtures and decorative architectural products. It generates revenue through two main segments: Plumbing Products (roughly 70% of sales) and Decorative Architectural Products (roughly 30%), selling through wholesale distributors, home centers, and specialty retailers. The company's competitive advantage lies in its portfolio of strong consumer brands — including Delta, Hansgrohe, and Behr — which command premium pricing and customer loyalty in their respective categories.
Market Cap
$14.5B
Revenue TTM
$7.7B
Net Income TTM
$837M
Net Margin
10.9%
MAS Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
50%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+8.5%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$1.30/$1.09
Revenue
$2.1B/$2.0B
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.97/$1.02
Revenue
$1.9B/$1.8B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.82/$0.78
Revenue
$1.8B/$1.8B
Q2 2026
EPS
$1.04/$0.88
Revenue
$1.9B/$1.8B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $1.30/$1.09 | +19.3% | $2.1B/$2.0B | +2.7% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.97/$1.02 | -4.9% | $1.9B/$1.8B | +5.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.82/$0.78 | +5.1% | $1.8B/$1.8B | -1.3% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.04/$0.88 | +18.2% | $1.9B/$1.8B | +4.6% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$7.6B
-1.1% YoY
FY2
$7.5B
-1.0% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$4.29
+4.0% YoY
FY2
$4.54
+5.8% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$943M
FCF Margin: 12.3%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
MAS beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
MAS Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $7.6B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Plumbing Products
66.0%
+2.9% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
North America
78.7%
-5.0% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Plumbing Products is the largest disclosed segment at 66.0% of FY 2025 revenue, up 2.9% YoY.
North America is the largest reported region at 78.7%, down 5.0% YoY.
MAS Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Undervalued
Fair value est. $88 — implies +23.9% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
23.9%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
MAS
18.6x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
26% discount
vs Industrials Trailing P/E
MAS
18.6x
vs
Industrials
25.9x
28% discount
vs MAS 5Y Avg P/E
Today
18.6x
vs
5Y Average
21.7x
14% discount
Forward PE
16.9x
S&P 500
19.1x
-12%
Industrials
20.8x
-19%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
18.6x
S&P 500
25.2x
-26%
Industrials
25.9x
-28%
5Y Avg
21.7x
-14%
PEG Ratio
3.76x
S&P 500
1.75x
+115%
Industrials
1.59x
+137%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
12.2x
S&P 500
15.3x
-20%
Industrials
13.9x
-12%
5Y Avg
11.5x
+6%
Price/FCF
16.8x
S&P 500
21.3x
-21%
Industrials
20.6x
-19%
5Y Avg
17.1x
-2%
Price/Sales
1.9x
S&P 500
3.1x
-39%
Industrials
1.6x
+21%
5Y Avg
1.8x
+6%
Dividend Yield
1.73%
S&P 500
1.88%
-8%
Industrials
1.24%
+40%
5Y Avg
1.77%
-2%
| Metric | MAS | S&P 500 | Industrials | 5Y Avg MAS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 16.9x | 19.1x-12% | 20.8x-19% | — |
| Trailing PE | 18.6x | 25.2x-26% | 25.9x-28% | 21.7x-14% |
| PEG Ratio | 3.76x | 1.75x+115% | 1.59x+137% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.2x | 15.3x-20% | 13.9x-12% | 11.5x |
| Price/FCF | 16.8x | 21.3x-21% | 20.6x-19% | 17.1x |
| Price/Sales | 1.9x | 3.1x-39% | 1.6x+21% | 1.8x |
| Dividend Yield | 1.73% | 1.88% | 1.24% | 1.77% |
MAS trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 1 of 6 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolMAS Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
MAS generates $943M in free cash flow at a 12.3% margin — 35.4% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 5.7% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$7.7B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
-0.3%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
35.4%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
16.8%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
10.9%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$4.13
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$943M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
12.3%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
35.4%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
15.9%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$647M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$2.8B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
3.0× FCF
~3.0 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE *
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
799.0%
* Elevated by buyback-compressed equity — compare ROIC (35.4%) for an undistorted picture of capital efficiency.
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
5.7%
Dividend
1.7%
Buyback
3.9%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$571M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$1.24
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
32.2%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
202M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt). ROE marked * where buyback-compressed equity base may inflate the figure.
Open full ratios pageMAS Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Declining demand
Masco Corporation's Decorative Architectural Products segment is experiencing declining demand, which could significantly impact revenue. Economic uncertainties, including potential recessions and downturns in the housing market, threaten consumer spending on home improvement projects.
High Risk
Economic conditions
Masco's financial performance is highly sensitive to broader economic conditions. A year-over-year decline in plumbing sales and reduced annual sales projections indicate weaker volumes, which could lead to further margin contraction.
High Risk
Tariffs and input costs
Higher tariffs and input costs are exerting pressure on Masco's margins. The impact of tariffs on international business operations has been noted, contributing to the overall decline in sales.
Medium
Macroeconomic uncertainty
Macroeconomic uncertainty and geopolitical risks pose significant threats to the domestic financial system. These factors could lead to reduced consumer confidence and spending, further impacting Masco's sales.
Medium
Dependence on IT vendors
Masco's reliance on third-party IT vendors introduces potential risks related to service disruptions and data security. Any issues with these vendors could adversely affect operations and financial performance.
Medium
AI-related risks
The rise of AI technologies brings heightened risks of cyberattacks and scams. Masco may face challenges in safeguarding its operations and customer data against these evolving threats.
Lower
Short interest
Masco has a short interest of 4.46%, with 9.00 million shares short and 3.28 days to cover. This indicates some market skepticism about the stock's future performance, which could lead to volatility.
Lower
Valuation concerns
Despite strong fundamentals, Masco is trading at a premium compared to its GF Value, suggesting it may be overvalued. This could lead to price corrections if market sentiment shifts.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why MAS Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Strong R&R Market
The R&R market is expected to experience long-term growth driven by factors such as an aging housing stock and favorable demographics. Masco is well-positioned to benefit from this trend, particularly in its plumbing and decorative architectural segments.
Brand Strength and Market Share
Masco possesses strong brands, which provide pricing power, better channel positioning, and stronger margins compared to many competitors. The company aims to continue gaining market share through innovation and brand development.
Margin Expansion and Operational Efficiency
Analysts point to potential margin expansion, supported by anticipated gains in wholesale plumbing and professional paint sales. Restructuring actions taken in late 2025 and into 2026 are expected to streamline operations, reduce headcount, and generate savings, which can fund growth initiatives and support future margin expansion.
Shareholder Value Creation
Masco has a history of returning value to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases. A new $2.0 billion share repurchase program has been authorized, indicating management's belief that the stock may be undervalued.
Financial Performance
Recent first-quarter 2026 results showed a 6% increase in net sales and a 10% increase in operating profit. The company has maintained its 2026 adjusted EPS guidance and reported a solid cash flow, with free cash flow of roughly $371 million.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
MAS Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$71.95
52W Range Position
66%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$58.16
+23.7% from the low
52-Week High
$79.19
-9.1% from the high
1 Month
+20.54%
3 Month
-1.26%
YTD
+11.6%
1 Year
+18.8%
3Y CAGR
+10.1%
5Y CAGR
+1.7%
10Y CAGR
+8.5%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
MAS vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
16.9x
vs 20.0x median
-16% below peer median
Revenue Growth
-1.1%
vs +2.9% median
-138% below peer median
Net Margin
10.9%
vs 15.2% median
-28% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MAS MAS Masco Corporation | $14.5B | 16.9x | -1.1% | 10.9% | Buy | +14.5% |
MHK MHK Mohawk Industries, Inc. | $6.4B | 11.4x | -0.3% | 3.8% | Hold | +24.5% |
SHW SHW The Sherwin-Williams Company | $79.8B | 27.6x | +2.9% | 10.9% | Buy | +20.3% |
AWI AWI Armstrong World Industries, Inc. | $7.1B | 20.0x | +10.6% | 18.6% | Buy | +18.8% |
TRE TREX Trex Company, Inc. | $4.2B | 24.4x | +2.9% | 16.2% | Hold | +11.5% |
ALL ALLE Allegion plc | $11.6B | 15.4x | +7.1% | 15.2% | Hold | +27.5% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
MAS Dividend and Capital Return
MAS returns capital mainly through $571M/year in buybacks (4.0% buyback yield), with a modest 1.76% dividend — combining for 5.8% total shareholder yield. The dividend has grown for 12 consecutive years.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
5.8%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
4.0%
Dividend Yield
1.76%
Payout Ratio
32.2%
How MAS Splits Its Return
Div 1.76%
Buyback 4.0%
Dividend 1.76%Buybacks 4.0%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$1.24
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
12Y
3Y Div CAGR
3.5%
5Y Div CAGR
12.8%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$571M
Estimated Shares Retired
8M
Approx. Share Reduction
3.9%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
202M
At 3.9%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.32 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $1.24 | +6.9% | 4.3% | 6.2% |
| 2024 | $1.16 | +1.8% | 4.7% | 6.3% |
| 2023 | $1.14 | +1.8% | 2.3% | 4.0% |
| 2022 | $1.12 | +32.5% | 8.4% | 10.8% |
FAQ
7 questionsMAS Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Masco Corporation (MAS) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Masco Corporation (MAS) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 38 analysts covering the stock, 21 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 15 rate it Hold, and 2 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $82, implying +14.5% from the current price of $72. The bear case scenario is $53 and the bull case is $93.
02What is the MAS stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for MAS is $82 based on 38 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $97 (+34.8% from today), and the low-end target is $72 (+0.1%). The base case model target is $85.
03Is Masco Corporation (MAS) stock overvalued in 2026?
MAS trades at 16.9x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Masco Corporation (MAS) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for MAS in 2026 are: (1) Declining demand — Masco Corporation's Decorative Architectural Products segment is experiencing declining demand, which could significantly impact revenue. (2) Economic conditions — Masco's financial performance is highly sensitive to broader economic conditions. (3) Tariffs and input costs — Higher tariffs and input costs are exerting pressure on Masco's margins. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Masco Corporation's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates MAS will report consensus revenue of $7.6B (-1.1% year-over-year) and EPS of $4.29 (+4.0% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $7.5B in revenue.
06When does Masco Corporation (MAS) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for MAS is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Masco Corporation generate?
Masco Corporation (MAS) generated $943M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 12.3%. MAS returns capital to shareholders through dividends (1.8% yield) and share repurchases ($571M TTM).