Upside case
Bull case
$982+241.4%
MKSI would need investors to value it at roughly 99x earnings — about 70x more generous than today's 29x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
MKS Inc. (MKSI) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
29
analysts
24 bullish · 2 bearish · 29 covering MKSI
Strong Buy
0
Buy
24
Hold
3
Sell
2
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$273
-5.1% vs today
Scenario Range
— – $982
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
29
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
29.0x
Forward P/E · Market cap $19.4B
MKSI price targets
Three scenarios for where MKSI stock could go
Current
~$288
Confidence
46 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $288
Base
$313
Bull
$982
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$313+8.9%
This is close to how the market is already pricing MKSI — at roughly 32x forward earnings. No dramatic re-rating needed, just steady execution on the core business.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
MKS Inc.
MKSI · NASDAQTechnologyHardware, Equipment & PartsDecember year-end
MKS Inc. is a technology company that provides precision instruments and process control solutions for advanced manufacturing — particularly in semiconductor fabrication and other high-tech industries. It generates revenue primarily through two segments: Vacuum & Analysis (roughly 60% of sales) for pressure control and plasma systems, and Light & Motion (roughly 40%) for lasers and photonics equipment. The company's moat lies in its deep expertise in critical process control parameters and its entrenched position in semiconductor manufacturing ecosystems where precision and reliability are paramount.
Market Cap
$19.4B
Revenue TTM
$3.9B
Net Income TTM
$295M
Net Margin
7.5%
MKSI Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
100%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+44.8%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$1.71/$1.42
Revenue
$936M/$938M
Q3 2025
EPS
$1.77/$1.61
Revenue
$973M/$946M
Q4 2025
EPS
$1.93/$1.85
Revenue
$988M/$968M
Q1 2026
EPS
$2.47/$2.46
Revenue
$1.0B/$1.0B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $1.71/$1.42 | +20.4% | $936M/$938M | -0.3% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.77/$1.61 | +9.9% | $973M/$946M | +2.8% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.93/$1.85 | +4.3% | $988M/$968M | +2.1% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.47/$2.46 | +0.4% | $1.0B/$1.0B | +1.1% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$4.3B
+9.6% YoY
FY2
$4.7B
+8.5% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$5.19
+19.7% YoY
FY2
$4.76
-8.4% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$496M
FCF Margin: 12.6%
Next Earnings
May 6, 2026
Expected EPS
$2.04
Expected Revenue
$1.0B
MKSI beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
MKSI Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2024
Total disclosed revenue $3.6B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Product
87.1%
-2.4% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Other countries
26.1%
+6.1% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Product is the largest disclosed segment at 87.1% of FY 2024 revenue, down 2.4% YoY.
Other countries is the largest reported region at 26.1%, up 6.1% YoY.
MKSI Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Slightly Overvalued
Fair value est. $262 — implies -6.3% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
6.3%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
MKSI
65.8x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
+162% premium
vs Technology Trailing P/E
MKSI
65.8x
vs
Technology
26.7x
+146% premium
vs MKSI 5Y Avg P/E
Today
65.8x
vs
5Y Average
26.6x
+147% premium
Forward PE
29.0x
S&P 500
19.1x
+52%
Technology
22.1x
+31%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
65.8x
S&P 500
25.1x
+162%
Technology
26.7x
+146%
5Y Avg
26.6x
+147%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.72x
—
Technology
1.52x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
25.7x
S&P 500
15.2x
+69%
Technology
17.5x
+47%
5Y Avg
13.2x
+95%
Price/FCF
39.0x
S&P 500
21.1x
+85%
Technology
19.5x
+100%
5Y Avg
20.0x
+95%
Price/Sales
4.9x
S&P 500
3.1x
+58%
Technology
2.4x
+102%
5Y Avg
2.3x
+118%
Dividend Yield
0.30%
S&P 500
1.87%
-84%
Technology
1.16%
-74%
5Y Avg
0.75%
-60%
| Metric | MKSI | S&P 500 | Technology | 5Y Avg MKSI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 29.0x | 19.1x+52% | 22.1x+31% | — |
| Trailing PE | 65.8x | 25.1x+162% | 26.7x+146% | 26.6x+147% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.72x | 1.52x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 25.7x | 15.2x+69% | 17.5x+47% | 13.2x+95% |
| Price/FCF | 39.0x | 21.1x+85% | 19.5x+100% | 20.0x+95% |
| Price/Sales | 4.9x | 3.1x+58% | 2.4x+102% | 2.3x+118% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.30% | 1.87% | 1.16% | 0.75% |
MKSI trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 5 of 5 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolMKSI Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
MKSI generates $496M in free cash flow at a 12.6% margin.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$3.9B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+9.6%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
45.2%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
13.7%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
7.5%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$4.34
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$496M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
12.6%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
6.5%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
3.4%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$675M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$4.0B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
8.1× FCF
~8.1 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
10.8%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.5%
Dividend
0.3%
Buyback
0.2%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$45M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$0.87
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
20.0%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
68M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageMKSI Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
High Debt Load
MKSI carries a significant amount of debt, particularly from its acquisition of Atotech, with a debt-to-equity ratio as high as 1.84 and a net debt to equity ratio of 129.7%. This elevated debt level makes the company vulnerable to economic downturns and rising interest rates, raising concerns about long-term stability.
High Risk
Bankruptcy Risk
The company's Altman Z-Score of 1.71 is below the threshold of 3, indicating an increased risk of bankruptcy. This financial metric suggests that MKSI may face significant challenges in meeting its obligations if conditions worsen.
Medium
Customer Concentration
A significant portion of MKSI's semiconductor revenue is derived from a few key customers, including Lam Research, Applied Materials, ASML, and KLA. A loss of share allocation from these customers could negatively impact the company's growth trajectory.
Medium
Market Cyclicality
The demand for wafer fab equipment (WFE) is subject to market cyclicality, and a slowdown in capital expenditures, particularly in AI, could harm overall WFE spending. Additionally, rising trade and tariff pressures may undermine valuation assumptions.
Medium
Integration of Acquisitions
Challenges in integrating major acquisitions, such as Atotech, can lead to substantial indebtedness and potential asset impairments. These integration issues may hinder MKSI's operational efficiency and financial performance.
Lower
Supplier Dependence
MKSI relies on sole and limited-source suppliers, which poses a risk of operational disruptions. Any issues with these suppliers could adversely affect production and delivery timelines.
Lower
Overvaluation
Some analyses suggest that MKSI is significantly overvalued, with its current market price far exceeding its estimated intrinsic value. This overvaluation can place the stock in risky territory for investors.
Lower
Volatility
MKSI has exhibited higher volatility than the S&P 500, with a beta of 2.49. Its 14-day Average True Range (ATR) is also in the top 10%, indicating high price swings that may deter risk-averse investors.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why MKSI Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Strong Financial Performance
MKS Instruments reported robust financial results for Q4 and full-year 2025, with revenue reaching $3.93 billion, a 9.62% increase from the previous year. Earnings grew by 55.26% to $295 million, with Q4 net income at $108 million and net income per diluted share of $1.58.
Growth Drivers from AI and Tech
The company's broad technology portfolio is well-positioned to capitalize on secular growth driven by AI transformation, next-generation semiconductor manufacturing, and advanced packaging. MKS's focus on AI integration and successful acquisitions have contributed to strong earnings and future growth potential.
Positive Analyst Sentiment
The consensus among analysts is largely positive, with a 'Buy' rating from 13 analysts. Many analysts recommend a 'Strong Buy,' indicating confidence in the company's future performance.
Projected Revenue and EPS Growth
Analysts forecast significant revenue growth of 10.87% for the next year and substantial EPS growth of 21.17%. For 2025, EPS was $4.37, projected to grow to $11.75 per share in the next year, reflecting a 19.29% increase.
Strategic Financial Management
MKS has strengthened its financial position by refinancing debt and extending maturities, which diversifies its capital structure and reduces interest rates. This strategic management enhances the company's financial stability and growth prospects.
Strong Market Position
MKS is considered a strong, well-positioned company in the semiconductor and electronics industries due to its advanced technology solutions and market standing. This competitive edge supports its growth trajectory in a rapidly evolving market.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
MKSI Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$287.65
52W Range Position
95%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$71.49
+302.4% from the low
52-Week High
$298.00
-3.5% from the high
1 Month
+21.38%
3 Month
+26.81%
YTD
+70.9%
1 Year
+286.3%
3Y CAGR
+48.1%
5Y CAGR
+10.3%
10Y CAGR
+23.1%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
MKSI vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
29.0x
vs 41.8x median
-31% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+9.6%
vs +5.3% median
+80% above peer median
Net Margin
7.5%
vs 6.9% median
+9% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MKS MKSI MKS Inc. | $19.4B | 29.0x | +9.6% | 7.5% | Buy | -5.1% |
ENT ENTG Entegris, Inc. | $22.7B | 41.8x | +2.4% | 8.2% | Buy | +1.8% |
ICH ICHR Ichor Holdings, Ltd. | $2.4B | 59.2x | +5.4% | -5.3% | Buy | -26.5% |
ONT ONTO Onto Innovation Inc. | $15.2B | 43.1x | +20.6% | 10.3% | Buy | +1.1% |
NOV NOVT Novanta Inc. | $4.7B | 37.1x | +5.3% | 5.5% | Buy | +13.4% |
FEL FELE Franklin Electric Co., Inc. | $4.4B | 21.8x | +5.0% | 6.9% | Hold | -0.0% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
MKSI Dividend and Capital Return
MKSI returns 0.5% total yield, led by a 0.30% dividend.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
0.5%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.2%
Dividend Yield
0.30%
Payout Ratio
20.0%
How MKSI Splits Its Return
Div 0.30%
Buyback 0.2%
Dividend 0.30%Buybacks 0.2%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.87
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
0.0%
5Y Div CAGR
1.9%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$45M
Estimated Shares Retired
156.4K
Approx. Share Reduction
0.2%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
68M
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.25 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $0.88 | 0.0% | 0.4% | 1.0% |
| 2024 | $0.88 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.8% |
| 2023 | $0.88 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.9% |
| 2022 | $0.88 | +2.3% | 0.0% | 1.0% |
FAQ
7 questionsMKSI Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is MKS Inc. (MKSI) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
MKS Inc. (MKSI) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 29 analysts covering the stock, 24 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 3 rate it Hold, and 2 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $273, implying -5.1% from the current price of $288.
02What is the MKSI stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for MKSI is $273 based on 29 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $320 (+11.2% from today), and the low-end target is $175 (-39.2%). The base case model target is $313.
03Is MKS Inc. (MKSI) stock overvalued in 2026?
MKSI trades at 29.0x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals slightly overvalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for MKS Inc. (MKSI) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for MKSI in 2026 are: (1) High Debt Load — MKSI carries a significant amount of debt, particularly from its acquisition of Atotech, with a debt-to-equity ratio as high as 1. (2) Bankruptcy Risk — The company's Altman Z-Score of 1. (3) Customer Concentration — A significant portion of MKSI's semiconductor revenue is derived from a few key customers, including Lam Research, Applied Materials, ASML, and KLA. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is MKS Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates MKSI will report consensus revenue of $4.3B (+9.6% year-over-year) and EPS of $5.19 (+19.7% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $4.7B in revenue.
06When does MKS Inc. (MKSI) report its next earnings?
MKS Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-05-06. Consensus expects EPS of $2.04 and revenue of $1.0B. Over recent quarters, MKSI has beaten EPS estimates 100% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does MKS Inc. generate?
MKS Inc. (MKSI) generated $496M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 12.6%. MKSI returns capital to shareholders through dividends (0.3% yield) and share repurchases ($45M TTM).