Upside case
Bull case
$289-13.4%
The bull case prices ONTO at 40x on FY1 earnings, assuming continued execution and no meaningful deceleration in the core business.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Onto Innovation Inc. (ONTO) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
11
analysts
11 bullish · 0 bearish · 11 covering ONTO
Strong Buy
0
Buy
11
Hold
0
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$339
+1.5% vs today
Scenario Range
$138 – $289
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
11
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
46.5x
Forward P/E · Market cap $16.6B
ONTO price targets
Three scenarios for where ONTO stock could go
Current
~$334
Confidence
43 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $334
Bear
$138
Base
$219
Bull
$289
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$219-34.3%
At 31x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$138-58.6%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 27x multiple contraction could push ONTO down roughly 59% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Onto Innovation Inc.
ONTO · NYSETechnologySemiconductorsJanuary year-end
Onto Innovation is a semiconductor equipment company that makes process control tools for defect inspection, optical metrology, and lithography systems used in chip manufacturing. It generates revenue primarily from selling these capital equipment systems — along with software licenses and spare parts — to semiconductor manufacturers and advanced packaging facilities. The company's competitive advantage lies in its integrated portfolio of inspection, metrology, and lithography technologies that help chipmakers improve yields and process control across multiple manufacturing steps.
Market Cap
$16.6B
Revenue TTM
$1.0B
Net Income TTM
$106M
Net Margin
10.3%
ONTO Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
67%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
33%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+2.8%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 2 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$1.25/$1.27
Revenue
$254M/$222M
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.92/$0.89
Revenue
$218M/$220M
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.26/$1.28
Revenue
$267M/$267M
Q2 2026
EPS
$1.42/$1.42
Revenue
$292M/$292M
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $1.25/$1.27 | -1.6% | $254M/$222M | +14.5% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.92/$0.89 | +2.9% | $218M/$220M | -0.9% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.26/$1.28 | -1.6% | $267M/$267M | -0.2% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.42/$1.42 | +0.0% | $292M/$292M | -0.0% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$1.1B
+11.5% YoY
FY2
$1.3B
+14.9% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$3.74
+75.5% YoY
FY2
$4.87
+30.5% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$239M
FCF Margin: 23.2%
Next Earnings
August 6, 2026
Expected EPS
$1.68
Expected Revenue
$325M
ONTO beat EPS estimates in 2 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
ONTO Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $1.0B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Systems And Software Revenue
84.3%
-0.3% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
TAIWAN
31.7%
+3.7% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Systems And Software Revenue is the largest disclosed segment at 84.3% of FY 2025 revenue, down 0.3% YoY.
TAIWAN is the largest reported region at 31.7%, up 3.7% YoY.
ONTO Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Cheap versus peers
Fair value est. $500 — implies +49.7% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
49.7%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
ONTO
120.1x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
+391% premium
vs Technology Trailing P/E
ONTO
120.1x
vs
Technology
29.0x
+314% premium
vs ONTO 5Y Avg P/E
Today
120.1x
vs
5Y Average
42.9x
+180% premium
Forward PE
46.5x
S&P 500
18.8x
+147%
Technology
22.3x
+109%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
120.1x
S&P 500
24.4x
+391%
Technology
29.0x
+314%
5Y Avg
42.9x
+180%
PEG Ratio
3.47x
S&P 500
1.66x
+109%
Technology
1.51x
+131%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
84.2x
S&P 500
15.2x
+453%
Technology
16.6x
+406%
5Y Avg
29.3x
+187%
Price/FCF
55.4x
S&P 500
20.7x
+168%
Technology
19.2x
+188%
5Y Avg
35.4x
+57%
Price/Sales
16.5x
S&P 500
3.1x
+434%
Technology
2.4x
+577%
5Y Avg
7.1x
+131%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.91%
—
Technology
1.11%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | ONTO | S&P 500 | Technology | 5Y Avg ONTO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 46.5x | 18.8x+147% | 22.3x+109% | — |
| Trailing PE | 120.1x | 24.4x+391% | 29.0x+314% | 42.9x+180% |
| PEG Ratio | 3.47x | 1.66x+109% | 1.51x+131% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 84.2x | 15.2x+453% | 16.6x+406% | 29.3x+187% |
| Price/FCF | 55.4x | 20.7x+168% | 19.2x+188% | 35.4x+57% |
| Price/Sales | 16.5x | 3.1x+434% | 2.4x+577% | 7.1x+131% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.91% | 1.11% | — |
ONTO trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 6 of 6 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolONTO Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
ONTO generates $239M in free cash flow at a 23.2% margin.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$1.0B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
-1.5%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
48.8%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
10.0%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
10.3%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$2.13
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$239M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
23.2%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
5.7%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
4.7%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$346M
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$329M
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
Net cash ✓
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
5.2%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.5%
Dividend
—
Buyback
0.5%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$75M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
50M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageONTO Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
High Risk
Market skepticism
The stock's 26% monthly drop reflects skepticism about Onto's ability to maintain margins amid AI packaging market corrections.
High Risk
Customer concentration
High customer concentration risk could amplify downside if chipmakers delay capex.
Medium
Inventory risk
High inventory levels may pose challenges if demand softens in the semiconductor industry.
Medium
Margin pressure
Dynamic market environment may pressure Onto's margins despite robust financial performance.
Lower
Valuation sensitivity
Sensitivity to revenue growth and margin changes could affect DCF valuation in various scenarios.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why ONTO Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
TSMC share regain
Onto Innovation has potential to regain market share with TSMC, a key player in the semiconductor industry.
Advanced packaging growth
The company stands to benefit from back-end advanced packaging trends in the semiconductor sector.
Semilab acquisition upside
The acquisition of Semilab is expected to be accretive and drive significant upside for Onto Innovation.
New system shipment
A new system shipment to TSMC is projected to contribute to substantial stock price appreciation.
Strong industry tailwinds
Onto Innovation is positioned to capitalize on favorable industry trends, similar to peers like KLAC.
Bullish analyst projections
Analysts project potential stock upside of 80-100% over the next two years based on growth drivers.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
ONTO Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$333.76
52W Range Position
94%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$89.40
+273.3% from the low
52-Week High
$348.76
-4.3% from the high
1 Month
+31.13%
3 Month
+65.33%
YTD
+101.2%
1 Year
+244.2%
3Y CAGR
+46.4%
5Y CAGR
+37.2%
10Y CAGR
+33.0%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
ONTO vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
46.5x
vs 55.7x median
-17% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+11.5%
vs +7.1% median
+62% above peer median
Net Margin
10.3%
vs 8.1% median
+27% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ONT ONTO Onto Innovation Inc. | $16.6B | 46.5x | +11.5% | 10.3% | Buy | +1.5% |
KLI KLIC Kulicke and Soffa Industries, Inc. | $6.4B | 35.7x | +1.7% | 0.4% | Buy | -42.6% |
COH COHU Cohu, Inc. | $3.3B | 119.3x | +3.3% | -11.5% | Buy | -28.3% |
FOR FORM FormFactor, Inc. | $11.7B | 61.0x | +7.1% | 8.1% | Buy | -10.4% |
ACM ACMR ACM Research, Inc. | $7.3B | 55.2x | +20.0% | 9.5% | Buy | -9.0% |
CAM CAMT Camtek Ltd. | $8.9B | 55.7x | +17.2% | 28.4% | Buy | -8.5% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
ONTO Dividend and Capital Return
ONTO returns 0.5% annually — null% through dividends and 0.5% through buybacks.
Dividend UnknownFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
0.5%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.5%
Dividend Yield
—
Payout Ratio
—
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.00
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
—
5Y Div CAGR
—
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
—
0 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$75M
Estimated Shares Retired
224.8K
Approx. Share Reduction
0.5%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
50M
FAQ
7 questionsONTO Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Onto Innovation Inc. (ONTO) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Onto Innovation Inc. (ONTO) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 11 analysts covering the stock, 11 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 0 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $339, implying +1.5% from the current price of $334. The bear case scenario is $138 and the bull case is $289.
02What is the ONTO stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for ONTO is $339 based on 11 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $371 (+11.2% from today), and the low-end target is $275 (-17.6%). The base case model target is $219.
03Is Onto Innovation Inc. (ONTO) stock overvalued in 2026?
ONTO trades at 46.5x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals cheap versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Onto Innovation Inc. (ONTO) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for ONTO in 2026 are: (1) Market skepticism — The stock's 26% monthly drop reflects skepticism about Onto's ability to maintain margins amid AI packaging market corrections. (2) Customer concentration — High customer concentration risk could amplify downside if chipmakers delay capex. (3) Inventory risk — High inventory levels may pose challenges if demand softens in the semiconductor industry. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Onto Innovation Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates ONTO will report consensus revenue of $1.1B (+11.5% year-over-year) and EPS of $3.74 (+75.5% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $1.3B in revenue.
06When does Onto Innovation Inc. (ONTO) report its next earnings?
Onto Innovation Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-08-06. Consensus expects EPS of $1.68 and revenue of $325M. Over recent quarters, ONTO has beaten EPS estimates 67% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Onto Innovation Inc. generate?
Onto Innovation Inc. (ONTO) generated $239M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 23.2%. ONTO returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($75M TTM).