Upside case
Bull case
$222+61.6%
MLI would need investors to value it at roughly 27x earnings — about 10x more generous than today's 17x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Mueller Industries, Inc. (MLI) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
6
analysts
1 bullish · 0 bearish · 6 covering MLI
Strong Buy
0
Buy
1
Hold
5
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
—
— vs today
Scenario Range
$106 – $222
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
6
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
17.0x
Forward P/E · Market cap $15.2B
MLI price targets
Three scenarios for where MLI stock could go
Current
~$137
Confidence
50 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $137
Bear
$106
Base
$168
Bull
$222
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$168+22.6%
At 21x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$106-22.7%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 4x multiple contraction could push MLI down roughly 23% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Mueller Industries, Inc.
MLI · NYSEIndustrialsManufacturing - Metal FabricationDecember year-end
Mueller Industries is a manufacturer of copper, brass, aluminum, and plastic products used primarily in plumbing, HVAC, and industrial applications. It generates revenue through three main segments: Piping Systems (copper tubes, fittings, and PEX plumbing systems), Industrial Metals (brass rods, valves, and forgings), and Climate (HVAC components and line sets). The company's competitive advantage lies in its vertical integration—controlling production from raw materials to finished goods—and its established distribution network serving wholesalers, OEMs, and retailers across multiple markets.
Market Cap
$15.2B
Revenue TTM
$4.4B
Net Income TTM
$847M
Net Margin
19.4%
MLI Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
67%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+21.6%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$1.96/$1.65
Revenue
$1.1B/$1.1B
Q4 2025
EPS
$1.88/$1.67
Revenue
$1.1B/$928M
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.39/$1.67
Revenue
$962M/$942M
Q2 2026
EPS
$2.16/$1.50
Revenue
$1.2B/$1.1B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $1.96/$1.65 | +18.8% | $1.1B/$1.1B | +1.6% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.88/$1.67 | +12.6% | $1.1B/$928M | +16.1% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.39/$1.67 | -16.8% | $962M/$942M | +2.2% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.16/$1.50 | +44.0% | $1.2B/$1.1B | +8.3% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$4.7B
+7.4% YoY
FY2
$5.0B
+7.1% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$7.90
+3.5% YoY
FY2
$8.37
+5.9% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$652M
FCF Margin: 14.9%
Next Earnings
July 21, 2026
Expected EPS
$2.11
Expected Revenue
$1.3B
MLI beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
MLI Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $4.2B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Piping Systems
64.0%
+7.7% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
78.6%
+16.2% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Piping Systems is the largest disclosed segment at 64.0% of FY 2025 revenue, up 7.7% YoY.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 78.6%, up 16.2% YoY.
MLI Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Cheap versus peers
Fair value est. $182 — implies +32.2% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
32.2%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
MLI
20.0x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
18% discount
vs Industrials Trailing P/E
MLI
20.0x
vs
Industrials
25.6x
22% discount
vs MLI 5Y Avg P/E
Today
20.0x
vs
5Y Average
10.7x
+88% premium
Forward PE
17.0x
S&P 500
18.8x
-10%
Industrials
21.2x
-20%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
20.0x
S&P 500
24.4x
-18%
Industrials
25.6x
-22%
5Y Avg
10.7x
+88%
PEG Ratio
0.49x
S&P 500
1.66x
-70%
Industrials
1.65x
-70%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
14.4x
S&P 500
15.2x
-5%
Industrials
13.9x
+4%
5Y Avg
7.0x
+105%
Price/FCF
22.2x
S&P 500
20.7x
+7%
Industrials
20.0x
+11%
5Y Avg
12.1x
+83%
Price/Sales
3.6x
S&P 500
3.1x
+18%
Industrials
1.6x
+134%
5Y Avg
1.8x
+106%
Dividend Yield
0.72%
S&P 500
1.91%
-63%
Industrials
1.21%
-41%
5Y Avg
1.12%
-36%
| Metric | MLI | S&P 500 | Industrials | 5Y Avg MLI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 17.0x | 18.8x | 21.2x-20% | — |
| Trailing PE | 20.0x | 24.4x-18% | 25.6x-22% | 10.7x+88% |
| PEG Ratio | 0.49x | 1.66x-70% | 1.65x-70% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 14.4x | 15.2x | 13.9x | 7.0x+105% |
| Price/FCF | 22.2x | 20.7x | 20.0x+11% | 12.1x+83% |
| Price/Sales | 3.6x | 3.1x+18% | 1.6x+134% | 1.8x+106% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.72% | 1.91% | 1.21% | 1.12% |
MLI trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 1 of 6 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolMLI Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
MLI generates $652M in free cash flow at a 14.9% margin — 44.7% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 2.3% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$4.4B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+11.5%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
27.8%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
22.9%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
19.4%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$7.63
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$652M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
14.9%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
44.7%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
23.9%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$1.4B
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$1.3B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
Net cash ✓
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
28.4%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
2.3%
Dividend
0.7%
Buyback
1.6%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$244M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$0.98
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
14.3%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
111M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageMLI Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
High Risk
Earnings Volatility
Recent earnings show significant fluctuation, with last quarter's earnings at $1.38 compared to year-ago earnings of $7.15, indicating potential instability.
Medium
Market Competition
Mueller Industries operates in competitive sectors like water infrastructure and sports medicine, where maintaining leadership may require continuous innovation.
Medium
Regulatory Risks
As a manufacturer in multiple industries, Mueller faces regulatory scrutiny, especially in water and metal products, which could impact operations.
Lower
Legacy Dependence
The company's long-standing legacy in water infrastructure may create reliance on outdated standards, limiting adaptability to modern demands.
High Risk
Financial Reporting Risks
Mueller disclosed 10 risk factors in its recent earnings report, suggesting potential financial or operational vulnerabilities.
Medium
Commodity Price Exposure
As a manufacturer of copper, aluminum, and steel products, Mueller is susceptible to price volatility in raw materials.
Lower
Geographic Concentration
Mueller's operations are concentrated in the southwest U.S., which may limit diversification and increase regional risk exposure.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why MLI Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Strong industry legacy
Mueller Industries has a long-standing reputation and pioneering developments in the water and industrial sectors, establishing industry standards.
Attractive valuation metrics
The company's trailing and forward P/E ratios suggest it may be undervalued, presenting a potential investment opportunity.
Price momentum
MLI stock has shown significant upward movement, nearing its 52-week high, indicating strong investor confidence.
Diverse industrial manufacturing
Mueller Industries specializes in copper and copper alloy manufacturing, along with other industrial products, providing diversified revenue streams.
Bullish analyst coverage
Several bullish theses have been published, highlighting the company's growth potential and favorable market position.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
MLI Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$137.39
52W Range Position
94%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$72.16
+90.4% from the low
52-Week High
$141.90
-3.2% from the high
1 Month
+0.92%
3 Month
+24.38%
YTD
+17.6%
1 Year
+88.8%
3Y CAGR
+50.4%
5Y CAGR
+45.3%
10Y CAGR
+23.9%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
MLI vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
17.0x
vs 17.8x median
-5% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+7.4%
vs +6.8% median
+10% above peer median
Net Margin
19.4%
vs 7.0% median
+176% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MLI MLI Mueller Industries, Inc. | $15.2B | 17.0x | +7.4% | 19.4% | Hold | — |
MWA MWA Mueller Water Products, Inc. | $4.1B | 17.7x | +3.8% | 14.2% | Hold | +23.4% |
III IIIN Insteel Industries, Inc. | $565M | 17.8x | +6.8% | 7.0% | Buy | — |
NVT NVT nVent Electric plc | $28.6B | 38.6x | +13.0% | 11.4% | Buy | +6.3% |
WCC WCC WESCO International, Inc. | $17.8B | 22.7x | +7.1% | 2.8% | Buy | +4.9% |
GFF GFF Griffon Corporation | $4.2B | 17.5x | +0.2% | 1.3% | Buy | +26.2% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
MLI Dividend and Capital Return
MLI returns capital mainly through $244M/year in buybacks (1.6% buyback yield), with a modest 0.72% dividend — combining for 2.3% total shareholder yield. The dividend has grown for 5 consecutive years.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
2.3%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
1.6%
Dividend Yield
0.72%
Payout Ratio
14.3%
How MLI Splits Its Return
Div 0.72%
Buyback 1.6%
Dividend 0.72%Buybacks 1.6%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.98
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
5Y
3Y Div CAGR
26.0%
5Y Div CAGR
38.0%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$244M
Estimated Shares Retired
2M
Approx. Share Reduction
1.6%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
111M
At 1.6%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.70 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $1.00 | +25.0% | 1.9% | 2.7% |
| 2024 | $0.80 | +33.3% | 0.5% | 1.5% |
| 2023 | $0.60 | +20.0% | 0.4% | 1.6% |
| 2022 | $0.50 | +92.3% | 1.1% | 2.8% |
FAQ
6 questionsMLI Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Mueller Industries, Inc. (MLI) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Mueller Industries, Inc. (MLI) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 6 analysts covering the stock, 1 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 5 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The bear case scenario is $106 and the bull case is $222.
02Is Mueller Industries, Inc. (MLI) stock overvalued in 2026?
MLI trades at 17.0x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals cheap versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
03What are the main risks for Mueller Industries, Inc. (MLI) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for MLI in 2026 are: (1) Earnings Volatility — Recent earnings show significant fluctuation, with last quarter's earnings at $1. (2) Financial Reporting Risks — Mueller disclosed 10 risk factors in its recent earnings report, suggesting potential financial or operational vulnerabilities. (3) Market Competition — Mueller Industries operates in competitive sectors like water infrastructure and sports medicine, where maintaining leadership may require continuous innovation. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
04What is Mueller Industries, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates MLI will report consensus revenue of $4.7B (+7.4% year-over-year) and EPS of $7.90 (+3.5% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $5.0B in revenue.
05When does Mueller Industries, Inc. (MLI) report its next earnings?
Mueller Industries, Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-07-21. Consensus expects EPS of $2.11 and revenue of $1.3B. Over recent quarters, MLI has beaten EPS estimates 83% of the time.
06How much free cash flow does Mueller Industries, Inc. generate?
Mueller Industries, Inc. (MLI) generated $652M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 14.9%. MLI returns capital to shareholders through dividends (0.7% yield) and share repurchases ($244M TTM).