Upside case
Bull case
$2637+66.0%
MPWR would need investors to value it at roughly 122x earnings — about 49x more generous than today's 74x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. (MPWR) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
25
analysts
22 bullish · 0 bearish · 25 covering MPWR
Strong Buy
0
Buy
22
Hold
3
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$1615
+1.7% vs today
Scenario Range
$867 – $2637
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
25
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
73.7x
Forward P/E · Market cap $78.0B
MPWR price targets
Three scenarios for where MPWR stock could go
Current
~$1589
Confidence
76 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $1589
Bear
$867
Base
$1589
Bull
$2637
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$1589+0.0%
This is close to how the market is already pricing MPWR — at roughly 74x forward earnings. No dramatic re-rating needed, just steady execution on the core business.
Stress case
Bear case
$867-45.4%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 33x multiple contraction could push MPWR down roughly 45% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Monolithic Power Systems, Inc.
MPWR · NASDAQTechnologySemiconductorsDecember year-end
Monolithic Power Systems designs and sells high-performance power management chips that convert and control voltages in electronic systems. It generates revenue primarily from DC-DC converter ICs — used in computing, automotive, and industrial applications — and lighting control ICs, with sales through distributors and direct to OEMs. The company's moat lies in its proprietary analog semiconductor technology and deep application expertise in power efficiency, which is critical for modern electronics.
Market Cap
$78.0B
Revenue TTM
$2.8B
Net Income TTM
$616M
Net Margin
22.1%
MPWR Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
100%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
100%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+2.1%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$4.21/$4.12
Revenue
$665M/$652M
Q4 2025
EPS
$4.73/$4.64
Revenue
$737M/$722M
Q1 2026
EPS
$4.79/$4.74
Revenue
$751M/$742M
Q2 2026
EPS
$5.10/$4.90
Revenue
$804M/$782M
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $4.21/$4.12 | +2.2% | $665M/$652M | +1.9% |
| Q4 2025 | $4.73/$4.64 | +1.9% | $737M/$722M | +2.0% |
| Q1 2026 | $4.79/$4.74 | +1.1% | $751M/$742M | +1.2% |
| Q2 2026 | $5.10/$4.90 | +4.1% | $804M/$782M | +2.8% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$3.4B
+22.7% YoY
FY2
$4.2B
+21.9% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$20.30
+62.0% YoY
FY2
$27.47
+35.3% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$664M
FCF Margin: 23.8%
Next Earnings
May 7, 2026
Expected EPS
$4.89
Expected Revenue
$782M
MPWR beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
MPWR Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $2.8B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
CHINA
55.3%
+31.1% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
CHINA is the largest reported region at 55.3%, up 31.1% YoY.
MPWR Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Overvalued
Fair value est. $782 — implies -50.6% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
50.6%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
MPWR
124.6x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
+396% premium
vs Technology Trailing P/E
MPWR
124.6x
vs
Technology
26.7x
+366% premium
vs MPWR 5Y Avg P/E
Today
124.6x
vs
5Y Average
59.2x
+110% premium
Forward PE
73.7x
S&P 500
19.1x
+286%
Technology
22.1x
+233%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
124.6x
S&P 500
25.1x
+396%
Technology
26.7x
+366%
5Y Avg
59.2x
+110%
PEG Ratio
4.22x
S&P 500
1.72x
+146%
Technology
1.52x
+177%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
98.7x
S&P 500
15.2x
+549%
Technology
17.5x
+465%
5Y Avg
54.4x
+81%
Price/FCF
117.1x
S&P 500
21.1x
+456%
Technology
19.5x
+500%
5Y Avg
72.0x
+63%
Price/Sales
28.0x
S&P 500
3.1x
+795%
Technology
2.4x
+1045%
5Y Avg
15.0x
+87%
Dividend Yield
0.37%
S&P 500
1.87%
-80%
Technology
1.16%
-68%
5Y Avg
0.67%
-45%
| Metric | MPWR | S&P 500 | Technology | 5Y Avg MPWR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 73.7x | 19.1x+286% | 22.1x+233% | — |
| Trailing PE | 124.6x | 25.1x+396% | 26.7x+366% | 59.2x+110% |
| PEG Ratio | 4.22x | 1.72x+146% | 1.52x+177% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 98.7x | 15.2x+549% | 17.5x+465% | 54.4x+81% |
| Price/FCF | 117.1x | 21.1x+456% | 19.5x+500% | 72.0x+63% |
| Price/Sales | 28.0x | 3.1x+795% | 2.4x+1045% | 15.0x+87% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.37% | 1.87% | 1.16% | 0.67% |
MPWR trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 6 of 6 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolMPWR Financial Health
Verdict
Exceptional
MPWR generates $664M in free cash flow at a 23.8% margin — 22.2% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$2.8B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+26.4%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
55.2%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
26.1%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
22.1%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$12.53
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$664M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
23.8%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
22.2%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
15.2%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$1.1B
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$1.1B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
Net cash ✓
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
17.9%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.4%
Dividend
0.4%
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$8M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$5.90
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
46.2%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
49M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageMPWR Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
China Exposure
Approximately 37% to 40% of MPWR’s revenue comes from China. Geopolitical tensions or U.S. export controls could disrupt operations, even though the company is diversifying its supply chain to Malaysia and South Korea.
High Risk
Customer Concentration
A large portion of MPWR’s growth is tied to NVIDIA. Any shift in NVIDIA’s design strategy or a slowdown in GPU demand could materially reduce MPWR’s revenue.
Medium
Accounting Controls & Restatements
An early‑2026 financial restatement highlighted weaknesses in internal controls, leading to a trust discount. Management must address these issues to restore investor confidence.
Medium
High Valuation
MPWR trades at over 60× earnings, leaving little margin for error. A miss on quarterly guidance could trigger a sharp price decline.
Medium
Historical Drawdowns
During credit and liquidity crises, MPWR has averaged a -33% decline, larger than the S&P 500. This indicates heightened volatility during market stress.
Medium
Legal Issues
A class‑action lawsuit alleges MPWR misled investors about performance and quality control of products supplied to NVIDIA, potentially harming the company’s reputation.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why MPWR Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Robust 2025 Revenue Growth
Monolithic Power Systems posted a 26.4% year‑over‑year revenue increase in 2025, reaching $2.8 billion. The company’s net margin stayed healthy, exceeding 22%.
AI Data Center & EV Demand
MPWR’s power‑management semiconductors are essential for AI data centers and high‑end electronics. The Enterprise Data segment saw accelerated growth, while automotive non‑enterprise markets grew over 40% in 2025.
Margin Expansion via High‑ASP Mix
The firm is shifting its product mix toward higher average‑selling‑price module and system solutions. This strategy is expected to lift operating margins into the 55%‑60% range.
Consistent Earnings Beat
MPWR has a track record of exceeding analyst expectations. For Q4 2025, the company reported an EPS of $4.79, beating estimates.
Shareholder Return Focus
The company has a history of returning free cash flow through share repurchases and dividends. Its most recent quarterly dividend increased by 28%.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
MPWR Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$1588.72
52W Range Position
93%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$612.95
+159.2% from the low
52-Week High
$1661.79
-4.4% from the high
1 Month
+34.63%
3 Month
+37.43%
YTD
+69.7%
1 Year
+153.2%
3Y CAGR
+56.9%
5Y CAGR
+36.3%
10Y CAGR
+38.4%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
MPWR vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
73.7x
vs 48.4x median
+52% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+22.7%
vs +2.4% median
+854% above peer median
Net Margin
22.1%
vs 5.0% median
+343% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MPW MPWR Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. | $78.0B | 73.7x | +22.7% | 22.1% | Buy | +1.7% |
ENT ENTG Entegris, Inc. | $22.7B | 41.8x | +2.4% | 8.2% | Buy | +1.8% |
POW POWI Power Integrations, Inc. | $4.3B | 59.6x | +0.0% | 5.0% | Buy | +2.5% |
DIO DIOD Diodes Incorporated | $5.2B | 48.4x | +6.1% | 4.5% | Buy | -34.2% |
SLA SLAB Silicon Laboratories Inc. | $7.2B | 80.6x | +16.7% | -8.3% | Buy | -3.1% |
IOS IOSP Innospec Inc. | $1.9B | 15.8x | -0.2% | 6.6% | Hold | +47.1% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
MPWR Dividend and Capital Return
MPWR returns 0.4% total yield, led by a 0.37% dividend, raised 8 consecutive years.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
0.4%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.0%
Dividend Yield
0.37%
Payout Ratio
46.2%
How MPWR Splits Its Return
Div 0.37%
Dividend 0.37%Buybacks 0.0%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$5.90
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
8Y
3Y Div CAGR
27.7%
5Y Div CAGR
25.6%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$8M
Estimated Shares Retired
4.8K
Approx. Share Reduction
0.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
49M
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $2.00 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $6.24 | +24.8% | 0.0% | 0.7% |
| 2024 | $5.00 | +25.0% | 2.2% | 3.0% |
| 2023 | $4.00 | +33.3% | 0.0% | 0.6% |
| 2022 | $3.00 | +25.0% | 0.0% | 0.8% |
FAQ
7 questionsMPWR Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. (MPWR) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. (MPWR) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 25 analysts covering the stock, 22 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 3 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $1615, implying +1.7% from the current price of $1589. The bear case scenario is $867 and the bull case is $2637.
02What is the MPWR stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for MPWR is $1615 based on 25 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $2000 (+25.9% from today), and the low-end target is $1200 (-24.5%). The base case model target is $1589.
03Is Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. (MPWR) stock overvalued in 2026?
MPWR trades at 73.7x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly overvalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. (MPWR) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for MPWR in 2026 are: (1) China Exposure — Approximately 37% to 40% of MPWR’s revenue comes from China. (2) Customer Concentration — A large portion of MPWR’s growth is tied to NVIDIA. (3) Accounting Controls & Restatements — An early‑2026 financial restatement highlighted weaknesses in internal controls, leading to a trust discount. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Monolithic Power Systems, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates MPWR will report consensus revenue of $3.4B (+22.7% year-over-year) and EPS of $20.30 (+62.0% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $4.2B in revenue.
06When does Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. (MPWR) report its next earnings?
Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-05-07. Consensus expects EPS of $4.89 and revenue of $782M. Over recent quarters, MPWR has beaten EPS estimates 100% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. generate?
Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. (MPWR) generated $664M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 23.8%. MPWR returns capital to shareholders through dividends (0.4% yield) and share repurchases ($8M TTM).