Upside case
Bull case
$1308-16.3%
The bull case prices MPWR at 55x on FY1 earnings, assuming continued execution and no meaningful deceleration in the core business.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. (MPWR) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
25
analysts
22 bullish · 0 bearish · 25 covering MPWR
Strong Buy
0
Buy
22
Hold
3
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$1615
+3.3% vs today
Scenario Range
$625 – $1308
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
25
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
65.2x
Forward P/E · Market cap $76.8B
MPWR price targets
Three scenarios for where MPWR stock could go
Current
~$1564
Confidence
52 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $1564
Bear
$625
Base
$993
Bull
$1308
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$993-36.5%
At 41x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$625-60.0%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 39x multiple contraction could push MPWR down roughly 60% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Monolithic Power Systems, Inc.
MPWR · NASDAQTechnologySemiconductorsDecember year-end
Monolithic Power Systems designs and sells high-performance power management chips that convert and control voltages in electronic systems. It generates revenue primarily from DC-DC converter ICs — used in computing, automotive, and industrial applications — and lighting control ICs, with sales through distributors and direct to OEMs. The company's moat lies in its proprietary analog semiconductor technology and deep application expertise in power efficiency, which is critical for modern electronics.
Market Cap
$76.8B
Revenue TTM
$2.8B
Net Income TTM
$616M
Net Margin
22.1%
MPWR Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
100%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
100%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+2.1%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$4.21/$4.12
Revenue
$665M/$652M
Q4 2025
EPS
$4.73/$4.64
Revenue
$737M/$722M
Q1 2026
EPS
$4.79/$4.74
Revenue
$751M/$742M
Q2 2026
EPS
$5.10/$4.90
Revenue
$804M/$782M
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $4.21/$4.12 | +2.2% | $665M/$652M | +1.9% |
| Q4 2025 | $4.73/$4.64 | +1.9% | $737M/$722M | +2.0% |
| Q1 2026 | $4.79/$4.74 | +1.1% | $751M/$742M | +1.2% |
| Q2 2026 | $5.10/$4.90 | +4.1% | $804M/$782M | +2.8% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$3.4B
+21.3% YoY
FY2
$4.0B
+19.1% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$17.96
+43.4% YoY
FY2
$22.06
+22.8% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$664M
FCF Margin: 23.8%
Next Earnings
July 30, 2026
Expected EPS
$5.85
Expected Revenue
$901M
MPWR beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
MPWR Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $2.8B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
CHINA
55.3%
+31.1% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
CHINA is the largest reported region at 55.3%, up 31.1% YoY.
MPWR Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Expensive versus peers
Fair value est. $1040 — implies -33.5% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
33.5%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
MPWR
122.6x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
+402% premium
vs Technology Trailing P/E
MPWR
122.6x
vs
Technology
29.0x
+323% premium
vs MPWR 5Y Avg P/E
Today
122.6x
vs
5Y Average
59.2x
+107% premium
Forward PE
65.2x
S&P 500
18.8x
+247%
Technology
22.3x
+193%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
122.6x
S&P 500
24.4x
+402%
Technology
29.0x
+323%
5Y Avg
59.2x
+107%
PEG Ratio
4.16x
S&P 500
1.66x
+150%
Technology
1.51x
+176%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
97.1x
S&P 500
15.2x
+539%
Technology
16.6x
+484%
5Y Avg
54.4x
+79%
Price/FCF
115.3x
S&P 500
20.7x
+457%
Technology
19.2x
+500%
5Y Avg
72.0x
+60%
Price/Sales
27.5x
S&P 500
3.1x
+790%
Technology
2.4x
+1029%
5Y Avg
15.0x
+84%
Dividend Yield
0.38%
S&P 500
1.91%
-80%
Technology
1.11%
-66%
5Y Avg
0.67%
-44%
| Metric | MPWR | S&P 500 | Technology | 5Y Avg MPWR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 65.2x | 18.8x+247% | 22.3x+193% | — |
| Trailing PE | 122.6x | 24.4x+402% | 29.0x+323% | 59.2x+107% |
| PEG Ratio | 4.16x | 1.66x+150% | 1.51x+176% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 97.1x | 15.2x+539% | 16.6x+484% | 54.4x+79% |
| Price/FCF | 115.3x | 20.7x+457% | 19.2x+500% | 72.0x+60% |
| Price/Sales | 27.5x | 3.1x+790% | 2.4x+1029% | 15.0x+84% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.38% | 1.91% | 1.11% | 0.67% |
MPWR trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 6 of 6 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolMPWR Financial Health
Verdict
Exceptional
MPWR generates $664M in free cash flow at a 23.8% margin — 22.2% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$2.8B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+26.4%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
55.2%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
26.1%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
22.1%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$12.53
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$664M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
23.8%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
22.2%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
15.2%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$1.1B
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$1.1B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
Net cash ✓
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
17.9%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.4%
Dividend
0.4%
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$8M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$5.90
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
46.2%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
49M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageMPWR Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
High Risk
Overvaluation risk
MPWR trades at a trailing P/E of 112.4x, a 251% premium to sector median, with a DCF-implied intrinsic range suggesting a -17% margin of safety.
High Risk
Aggressive risk profile
The stock has a beta of 1.74, indicating high volatility and sensitivity to market movements.
Medium
Margin sustainability
Despite strong net margins of 23.0%, there is uncertainty around maintaining these levels amid competitive pressures.
Lower
Sector cyclicality
MPWR's exposure to AI servers, EVs, and industrial automation makes it vulnerable to cyclical downturns in these sectors.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why MPWR Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
Strong revenue growth
MPWR posted $804M in Q1 2026 revenue, a 26% YoY increase, with Enterprise Data surging 97.7%.
Fabless model advantages
The company's fabless operations contribute to high margins and strong pricing power.
Diversified customer base
MPWR benefits from a diversified customer base, reducing reliance on any single market or client.
AI exposure
The company has significant exposure to AI, which is a growing and high-margin market.
Balance sheet strength
MPWR's strong balance sheet supports capital returns and long-term earnings durability.
High stock appreciation
The stock has appreciated approximately 100.08% since initial coverage, reflecting strong performance.
Enterprise data growth
Enterprise Data segment surged 97.7%, indicating strong demand in this high-growth area.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
MPWR Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$1563.70
52W Range Position
86%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$671.18
+133.0% from the low
52-Week High
$1714.09
-8.8% from the high
1 Month
+5.21%
3 Month
+45.42%
YTD
+67.0%
1 Year
+125.6%
3Y CAGR
+45.3%
5Y CAGR
+34.6%
10Y CAGR
+36.7%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
MPWR vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
65.2x
vs 49.1x median
+33% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+21.3%
vs +5.1% median
+321% above peer median
Net Margin
22.1%
vs 5.5% median
+301% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MPW MPWR Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. | $76.8B | 65.2x | +21.3% | 22.1% | Buy | +3.3% |
ENT ENTG Entegris, Inc. | $27.2B | 49.1x | +5.1% | 8.2% | Buy | -14.6% |
POW POWI Power Integrations, Inc. | $4.9B | 65.3x | +2.9% | 3.7% | Buy | +3.3% |
DIO DIOD Diodes Incorporated | $5.5B | 45.5x | +7.7% | 5.5% | Buy | +0.5% |
SLA SLAB Silicon Laboratories Inc. | $7.2B | 79.4x | +13.1% | -6.1% | Buy | -3.7% |
IOS IOSP Innospec Inc. | $2.0B | 17.1x | +1.4% | 6.4% | Hold | +39.0% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
MPWR Dividend and Capital Return
MPWR returns 0.4% total yield, led by a 0.38% dividend, raised 8 consecutive years.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
0.4%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.0%
Dividend Yield
0.38%
Payout Ratio
46.2%
How MPWR Splits Its Return
Div 0.38%
Dividend 0.38%Buybacks 0.0%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$5.90
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
8Y
3Y Div CAGR
27.7%
5Y Div CAGR
25.6%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Semi-Annual
5 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$8M
Estimated Shares Retired
4.9K
Approx. Share Reduction
0.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
49M
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $4.00 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $6.24 | +24.8% | 0.0% | 0.7% |
| 2024 | $5.00 | +25.0% | 2.2% | 3.0% |
| 2023 | $4.00 | +33.3% | 0.0% | 0.6% |
| 2022 | $3.00 | +25.0% | 0.0% | 0.8% |
FAQ
7 questionsMPWR Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. (MPWR) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. (MPWR) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 25 analysts covering the stock, 22 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 3 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $1615, implying +3.3% from the current price of $1564. The bear case scenario is $625 and the bull case is $1308.
02What is the MPWR stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for MPWR is $1615 based on 25 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $2000 (+27.9% from today), and the low-end target is $1200 (-23.3%). The base case model target is $993.
03Is Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. (MPWR) stock overvalued in 2026?
MPWR trades at 65.2x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals expensive versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. (MPWR) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for MPWR in 2026 are: (1) Overvaluation risk — MPWR trades at a trailing P/E of 112. (2) Aggressive risk profile — The stock has a beta of 1. (3) Margin sustainability — Despite strong net margins of 23. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Monolithic Power Systems, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates MPWR will report consensus revenue of $3.4B (+21.3% year-over-year) and EPS of $17.96 (+43.4% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $4.0B in revenue.
06When does Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. (MPWR) report its next earnings?
Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-07-30. Consensus expects EPS of $5.85 and revenue of $901M. Over recent quarters, MPWR has beaten EPS estimates 100% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. generate?
Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. (MPWR) generated $664M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 23.8%. MPWR returns capital to shareholders through dividends (0.4% yield) and share repurchases ($8M TTM).