Upside case
Bull case
$404+174.6%
NBIX would need investors to value it at roughly 65x earnings — about 41x more generous than today's 24x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc. (NBIX) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
37
analysts
32 bullish · 0 bearish · 37 covering NBIX
Strong Buy
0
Buy
32
Hold
5
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$178
+21.1% vs today
Scenario Range
— – $404
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
37
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
23.7x
Forward P/E · Market cap $14.8B
NBIX price targets
Three scenarios for where NBIX stock could go
Current
~$147
Confidence
36 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $147
Base
$307
Bull
$404
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$307+108.5%
At 49x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc.
NBIX · NASDAQHealthcareDrug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericDecember year-end
Neurocrine Biosciences is a biopharmaceutical company focused on developing and commercializing treatments for neurological, endocrine, and psychiatric disorders. It generates revenue primarily from sales of its lead drug INGREZZA for tardive dyskinesia — which drives the majority of its sales — along with other marketed products for Parkinson's disease and women's health conditions. The company's competitive advantage lies in its specialized neuroscience expertise and first-mover advantage with INGREZZA, the only FDA-approved treatment for tardive dyskinesia.
Market Cap
$14.8B
Revenue TTM
$3.1B
Net Income TTM
$669M
Net Margin
21.6%
NBIX Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
50%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
67%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
-12.6%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$1.06/$0.98
Revenue
$688M/$746M
Q4 2025
EPS
$2.04/$1.58
Revenue
$795M/$807M
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.88/$1.80
Revenue
$806M/$790M
Q2 2026
EPS
$1.94/$1.68
Revenue
$815M/$768M
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $1.06/$0.98 | +8.2% | $688M/$746M | -7.9% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.04/$1.58 | +29.1% | $795M/$807M | -1.5% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.88/$1.80 | +4.4% | $806M/$790M | +1.9% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.94/$1.68 | +15.5% | $815M/$768M | +6.0% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$3.7B
+19.4% YoY
FY2
$4.5B
+20.5% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$7.61
+17.7% YoY
FY2
$9.74
+27.9% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$831M
FCF Margin: 26.8%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
NBIX beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
NBIX Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $2.9B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Product
99.1%
+21.6% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Product is the largest disclosed segment at 99.1% of FY 2025 revenue, up 21.6% YoY.
NBIX Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Slightly Undervalued
Fair value est. $148 — implies +12.0% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
12.0%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
NBIX
31.5x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
+25% premium
vs Healthcare Trailing P/E
NBIX
31.5x
vs
Healthcare
22.1x
+42% premium
vs NBIX 5Y Avg P/E
Today
31.5x
vs
5Y Average
58.9x
47% discount
Forward PE
23.7x
S&P 500
19.1x
+24%
Healthcare
19.0x
+24%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
31.5x
S&P 500
25.2x
+25%
Healthcare
22.1x
+42%
5Y Avg
58.9x
-47%
PEG Ratio
13.45x
S&P 500
1.75x
+671%
Healthcare
1.52x
+784%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
22.3x
S&P 500
15.3x
+46%
Healthcare
14.1x
+57%
5Y Avg
42.9x
-48%
Price/FCF
19.7x
S&P 500
21.3x
-8%
Healthcare
18.7x
+6%
5Y Avg
30.8x
-36%
Price/Sales
5.2x
S&P 500
3.1x
+65%
Healthcare
2.8x
+81%
5Y Avg
6.7x
-23%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.88%
—
Healthcare
1.40%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | NBIX | S&P 500 | Healthcare | 5Y Avg NBIX |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 23.7x | 19.1x+24% | 19.0x+24% | — |
| Trailing PE | 31.5x | 25.2x+25% | 22.1x+42% | 58.9x-47% |
| PEG Ratio | 13.45x | 1.75x+671% | 1.52x+784% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 22.3x | 15.3x+46% | 14.1x+57% | 42.9x-48% |
| Price/FCF | 19.7x | 21.3x | 18.7x | 30.8x-36% |
| Price/Sales | 5.2x | 3.1x+65% | 2.8x+81% | 6.7x-23% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.88% | 1.40% | — |
NBIX trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 5 of 6 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolNBIX Financial Health
Verdict
Exceptional
NBIX generates $831M in free cash flow at a 26.8% margin — 16.1% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 1.1% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$3.1B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+28.6%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
98.2%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
25.4%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
21.6%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$6.47
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$831M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
26.8%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
16.1%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
15.1%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$713M
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$298M
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
Net cash ✓
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
21.6%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
1.1%
Dividend
—
Buyback
1.1%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$168M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
100M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageNBIX Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Competition and Pricing Pressure
Ingrezza, a key revenue source for Neurocrine, is facing increasing competition and pricing pressures that could lead to revenue declines. The VMAT2 inhibitor market is becoming more competitive, with potential price erosion due to negotiations with the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services.
High Risk
Acquisition Risks
The acquisition of Soleno Therapeutics introduces significant financial risks, including increased debt and potential short-term dilution of earnings. There are uncertainties regarding the future success and market penetration of the acquired drug, Vykat XR.
Medium
Clinical Trial and Regulatory Risks
Neurocrine may encounter risks related to clinical trials and regulatory approvals for its drug candidates. A Phase 3 trial for valbenazine in dyskinetic cerebral palsy patients did not meet its primary or key secondary endpoints, and meaningful clinical catalysts are not expected until 2027.
Medium
Valuation Concerns
Analysts have raised concerns about Neurocrine's high valuation relative to its near-term growth prospects. The company's current price-earnings (P/E) ratio is considered high compared to the Biotechnology industry median, leading some to label the stock as 'Expensive'.
Lower
Market and Macroeconomic Factors
Broader market dynamics, such as the reintroduction of tariffs and potential trade wars, can impact market volatility and corporate earnings. Investors are also moving away from traditional hedge fund strategies due to concerns over market fluctuations.
Lower
Pipeline Development Uncertainty
While Neurocrine's pipeline is expanding, there is uncertainty surrounding the development of certain candidates, such as CRFR2 for obesity, which is seen as outside the company's core expertise.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why NBIX Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Strong Analyst Ratings
A significant number of Wall Street analysts have issued 'Strong Buy' ratings for NBIX, indicating strong overall analyst conviction. The stock is ranked highly within the Pharmaceutical industry, reflecting positive sentiment among analysts.
Promising Pipeline Developments
Neurocrine Biosciences is a leader in neuroscience-focused biopharmaceuticals, with a strong commercial franchise in tardive dyskinesia. The drug Ingrezza is a key revenue driver, and the recent two-year results for CRENEVITY indicate sustained glucocorticoid dose reductions, showcasing its 'blockbuster potential'.
Acquisition of Soleno Therapeutics
The acquisition of Soleno Therapeutics, which includes the FDA-approved treatment Vykat XR for Prader-Willi Syndrome, is expected to be immediately accretive to revenue and earnings. This acquisition also opens potential expansion into other obesity markets.
Strong Financial Growth Projections
NBIX demonstrates outstanding fundamentals with top-tier 'A' grades in Value and Financials, and earnings are projected to grow by 29.3% this year, outpacing the industry average. Revenue is also forecasted to grow at approximately 12.5% annually.
Multiple Late-Stage Catalysts
Neurocrine has multiple late-stage pipeline catalysts and Phase II readouts expected, which could drive significant share price upside if successful. The company's strategic investments in R&D and commercial expansion are seen as well-spent for long-term shareholder benefit.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
NBIX Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$147.02
52W Range Position
70%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$115.66
+27.1% from the low
52-Week High
$160.18
-8.2% from the high
1 Month
+10.98%
3 Month
+4.12%
YTD
+4.6%
1 Year
+23.6%
3Y CAGR
+14.5%
5Y CAGR
+10.5%
10Y CAGR
+13.1%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
NBIX vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
23.7x
vs 40.6x median
-42% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+19.4%
vs +24.5% median
-21% below peer median
Net Margin
21.6%
vs 36.5% median
-41% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NBI NBIX Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc. | $14.8B | 23.7x | +19.4% | 21.6% | Buy | +21.1% |
INV INVA Innoviva, Inc. | $1.9B | 11.8x | +11.8% | 118.9% | Buy | +67.3% |
ACA ACAD ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc. | $3.7B | 48.5x | +24.5% | 36.5% | Buy | +61.9% |
PTC PTCT PTC Therapeutics, Inc. | $5.5B | — | +28.1% | 39.4% | Buy | +34.6% |
RAR RARE Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. | $2.5B | — | +16.6% | -91.0% | Buy | +98.6% |
FOL FOLD Amicus Therapeutics, Inc. | $4.5B | 40.6x | +26.7% | -2.3% | Buy | +0.1% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
NBIX Dividend and Capital Return
NBIX returns 1.2% annually — null% through dividends and 1.2% through buybacks.
Dividend UnknownFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
1.2%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
1.2%
Dividend Yield
—
Payout Ratio
—
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.00
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
—
5Y Div CAGR
—
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
—
0 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$168M
Estimated Shares Retired
1M
Approx. Share Reduction
1.1%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
100M
At 1.1%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
FAQ
7 questionsNBIX Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc. (NBIX) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc. (NBIX) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 37 analysts covering the stock, 32 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 5 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $178, implying +21.1% from the current price of $147.
02What is the NBIX stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for NBIX is $178 based on 37 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $220 (+49.6% from today), and the low-end target is $140 (-4.8%). The base case model target is $307.
03Is Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc. (NBIX) stock overvalued in 2026?
NBIX trades at 23.7x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals slightly undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc. (NBIX) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for NBIX in 2026 are: (1) Competition and Pricing Pressure — Ingrezza, a key revenue source for Neurocrine, is facing increasing competition and pricing pressures that could lead to revenue declines. (2) Acquisition Risks — The acquisition of Soleno Therapeutics introduces significant financial risks, including increased debt and potential short-term dilution of earnings. (3) Clinical Trial and Regulatory Risks — Neurocrine may encounter risks related to clinical trials and regulatory approvals for its drug candidates. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates NBIX will report consensus revenue of $3.7B (+19.4% year-over-year) and EPS of $7.61 (+17.7% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $4.5B in revenue.
06When does Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc. (NBIX) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for NBIX is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc. generate?
Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc. (NBIX) generated $831M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 26.8%. NBIX returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($168M TTM).