Revenue volatility and significant margin compression are evident, with net margins falling from 67.8% in 2024Q1 to 20.2% in 2026Q1, signaling potential pressure on core profitability.
| Sales/Revenue | 157.85M | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Revenue Growth % | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Cost of Goods Sold | 0 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| COGS % of Revenue | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Gross Profit | 95.93M | 171.31M | 111.42M | 86.03M | 23.39M | 29.43M | 4.22M | 13.93M | 4.08M |
| Gross Margin % | 60.77% | 84.87% | 59.91% | 59.74% | 49.96% | 74.97% | 48.5% | 87.67% | 89.05% |
| Gross Profit Growth % | - | 53.74% | 29.52% | 267.79% | -20.51% | 596.5% | -69.66% | 241.26% | - |
| Operating Expenses | 18.46M | 27.64M | -5.05M | 9.26M | 6.08M | 2.16M | 2.08M | -6.75M | -2.2M |
| OpEx % of Revenue | - | 13.69% | -2.72% | 6.43% | 12.99% | 5.51% | 23.88% | -42.47% | -48.05% |
| Selling, General & Admin | 6.66M | 7.61M | 6.54M | 6.19M | 3.99M | 2.68M | 2.5M | 0 | 0 |
| SG&A % of Revenue | - | 3.77% | 3.52% | 4.3% | 8.52% | 6.83% | 28.75% | 0% | 0% |
| Research & Development | 0 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| R&D % of Revenue | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Other Operating Expenses | 0 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Operating Income | 77.47M | 143.66M | 116.48M | 76.77M | 17.31M | 27.27M | 2.15M | 17.25M | 3.08M |
| Operating Margin % | 49.08% | 71.18% | 62.62% | 53.31% | 36.98% | 69.46% | 24.62% | 108.59% | 67.26% |
| Operating Income Growth % | - | 23.34% | 51.73% | 343.49% | -36.51% | 1171.14% | -87.57% | 459.64% | - |
| EBITDA | 77.47M | 143.66M | 116.48M | 76.77M | 17.31M | 27.27M | 2.15M | 19.11M | 4.03M |
| EBITDA Margin % | 49.08% | 71.18% | 62.62% | 53.31% | 36.98% | 69.46% | 24.62% | 120.27% | 87.9% |
| EBITDA Growth % | -42.36% | 23.34% | 51.73% | 343.49% | -36.51% | 1171.14% | -88.77% | 374.27% | - |
| D&A (Non-Cash Add-back) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.85M | 946K |
| EBIT | 77.47M | 143.66M | 116.48M | 76.77M | 17.31M | 27.27M | 2.15M | 14.03M | 3.64M |
| Net Interest Income | 126.02M | 118M | 133.22M | 99.31M | 54.96M | 25.19M | 8.56M | 0 | 0 |
| Interest Income | 198.54M | 195.9M | 213.1M | 160.51M | 80.66M | 35.02M | 13.05M | 0 | 0 |
| Interest Expense | 72.52M | 77.9M | 79.88M | 61.21M | 25.7M | 9.83M | 4.49M | 0 | 0 |
| Other Income/Expense | 0 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Pretax Income | 59.72M | 65.76M | 116.48M | 76.77M | 17.31M | 27.27M | 2.15M | 14.03M | 3.64M |
| Pretax Margin % | 37.83% | 32.58% | 62.62% | 53.31% | 36.98% | 69.46% | 24.62% | 88.32% | 79.36% |
| Income Tax | 443K | 149K | 154K | 830K | 24K | 0 | 0 | 14.03M | 3.64M |
| Effective Tax Rate % | 0.74% | 0.23% | 0.13% | 1.08% | 0.14% | 0% | 0% | 100% | 100% |
| Net Income | 59.28M | 65.61M | 116.32M | 75.94M | 17.29M | 27.27M | 2.15M | 7.29M | 1.44M |
| Net Margin % | 37.55% | 32.51% | 62.54% | 52.73% | 36.92% | 69.46% | 24.62% | 45.86% | 31.31% |
| Net Income Growth % | -47.87% | -43.59% | 53.18% | 339.3% | -36.6% | 1171.14% | -70.56% | 407.67% | - |
| Net Income (Continuing) | 59.28M | 65.61M | 116.32M | 75.94M | 17.29M | 27.27M | 2.15M | 7.29M | 1.44M |
| Discontinued Operations | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Minority Interest | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 84.67M |
| EPS (Diluted) | 1.20 | 1.30 | 2.15 | 2.27 | 0.74 | 2.12 | 0.43 | 1.79 | 0.35 |
| EPS Growth % | -43.13% | -39.53% | -5.29% | 206.76% | -65.09% | 393.02% | -75.98% | 411.43% | - |
| EPS (Basic) | - | 1.30 | 2.15 | 2.27 | 0.74 | 2.12 | 0.43 | 1.79 | 0.35 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 49.39M | 50.29M | 54.12M | 33.39M | 23.28M | 12.85M | 4.96M | 4.07M | 4.07M |
| Basic Shares Outstanding | 49.39M | 50.29M | 54.12M | 33.39M | 23.28M | 12.85M | 4.96M | 4.07M | 4.07M |
| Dividend Payout Ratio | - | 155.84% | - | 83.22% | - | - | - | - | 61.46% |
Middle-market credit quality deterioration
As indicated by the quarterly income statement data, NCDL's revenue has fluctuated between $36.7 million and $56.0 million over the last ten quarters, reflecting a lack of consistent top-line growth that warrants further investigation into the company's ability to deploy capital effectively in the current environment.
The inconsistent revenue trajectory suggests that NCDL may be struggling to maintain a steady pipeline of originations amidst a competitive middle-market lending landscape. Investors should monitor whether this volatility is a byproduct of the company's recent public transition or a more structural limitation in its deal-sourcing funnel.
Based on the provided financial figures, NCDL's net margin has experienced significant contraction, falling from 67.8% in 2024Q1 to 20.2% by 2026Q1, which suggests that the company is facing mounting pressure on its profitability that may not be fully explained by interest rate cycles alone.
The sharp decline in net margins indicates that the firm's cost of capital or potential credit-related adjustments are increasingly weighing on the bottom line. This trend appears to deviate from the performance of more established peers, suggesting that NCDL's current profitability profile may be less resilient than previously anticipated.
According to the reported income statement, operating margins have demonstrated extreme volatility, swinging from a high of 68.1% in 2024Q1 to a low of 41.7% in 2025Q2, which implies that the company's ability to scale operating income relative to its gross profit is currently inconsistent.
The lack of stable operating leverage suggests that NCDL may be incurring lumpy expenses or experiencing unpredictable shifts in its fee structure. This variability makes it difficult to forecast future earnings power and suggests that management's expense discipline may be tested as the portfolio matures.
As reported in the financial statements, the significant drop in EPS from $0.70 in 2023Q4 to $0.18 in 2026Q1 highlights a concerning trend in earnings quality, suggesting that the company's net income is highly sensitive to non-operating factors or potential portfolio valuation adjustments.
The dramatic decline in EPS growth, particularly the 66% year-over-year contraction observed in 2026Q1, raises questions about the sustainability of dividend distributions. Investors should be wary of whether these earnings are supported by cash-yielding assets or if they are increasingly reliant on non-cash accruals that could mask underlying credit deterioration.
Based on the provided data, the sharp decline in net income and margin compression suggests that NCDL's business model may be more vulnerable to middle-market credit cycles than the market currently prices in, potentially challenging the narrative of a stable, institutional-backed direct lender.
Short-sellers would likely focus on the rapid deterioration of net margins as a signal that the company's underwriting standards may be loosening to maintain deal flow. The inability to sustain historical profitability levels suggests that the competitive advantage provided by the Churchill platform may be insufficient to offset broader macroeconomic pressures on borrower interest coverage.
Quick answers to the most common questions about buying NCDL stock.
Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. (NCDL) is profitable, generating $65.6M in net income for the fiscal year ending 2025 with a net profit margin of 32.5%.
Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. (NCDL) reported an operating income of $143.7M, resulting in an operating profit margin of 71.2%. This margin reflects the operational efficiency of the business before interest and taxes.
Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. (NCDL) generated $171.3M in gross profit for the year, representing a gross profit margin of 84.9%. This demonstrates the company's core pricing power and production efficiency.