Upside case
Bull case
—
The bull case requires both strong earnings delivery and the market pricing NTNX more generously than it does today.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Nutanix, Inc. (NTNX) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
31
analysts
19 bullish · 0 bearish · 31 covering NTNX
Strong Buy
0
Buy
19
Hold
12
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$60
+38.3% vs today
Scenario Range
$596 – —
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
31
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
23.6x
Forward P/E · Market cap $11.7B
NTNX price targets
Three scenarios for where NTNX stock could go
Current
~$43
Confidence
54 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $43
Bear
$596
Base
$125
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$125+188.9%
At 68x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$596+1282.3%
The bear case assumes sentiment or fundamentals disappoint enough to push NTNX down roughly 1282% from the current price.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Nutanix, Inc.
NTNX · NASDAQTechnologySoftware - InfrastructureJuly year-end
Nutanix provides a hyperconverged infrastructure platform that combines computing, storage, and virtualization into a single software solution. It generates revenue primarily through subscription software licenses — about 90% of total revenue — with the remainder from hardware sales and support services. The company's key advantage is its software-defined architecture that simplifies data center management and enables seamless hybrid cloud operations.
Market Cap
$11.7B
Revenue TTM
$2.7B
Net Income TTM
$267M
Net Margin
9.9%
NTNX Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
100%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+36.2%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$0.42/$0.38
Revenue
$639M/$626M
Q3 2025
EPS
$0.37/$0.33
Revenue
$653M/$642M
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.41/$0.41
Revenue
$671M/$677M
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.56/$0.44
Revenue
$723M/$710M
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $0.42/$0.38 | +10.1% | $639M/$626M | +2.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $0.37/$0.33 | +13.4% | $653M/$642M | +1.7% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.41/$0.41 | +0.1% | $671M/$677M | -0.9% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.56/$0.44 | +27.3% | $723M/$710M | +1.8% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$3.0B
+12.2% YoY
FY2
$3.5B
+16.9% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$1.52
+67.7% YoY
FY2
$1.88
+23.3% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$777M
FCF Margin: 28.9%
Next Earnings
May 27, 2026
Expected EPS
$0.35
Expected Revenue
$686M
NTNX beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
NTNX Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2024
Total disclosed revenue $2.1B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Subscription and Circulation
93.9%
YoY unavailable
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
55.3%
+14.4% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Subscription and Circulation is the largest disclosed segment at 93.9% of FY 2024 revenue, with no year-over-year comparison yet.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 55.3%, up 14.4% YoY.
NTNX Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Undervalued
Fair value est. $58 — implies +35.1% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
35.1%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
NTNX
66.4x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
+163% premium
vs Technology Trailing P/E
NTNX
66.4x
vs
Technology
27.5x
+141% premium
vs NTNX 5Y Avg P/E
Today
66.4x
vs
5Y Average
115.6x
43% discount
Forward PE
23.6x
S&P 500
19.1x
+24%
Technology
21.7x
+9%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
66.4x
S&P 500
25.2x
+163%
Technology
27.5x
+141%
5Y Avg
115.6x
-43%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.75x
—
Technology
1.47x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
50.5x
S&P 500
15.3x
+231%
Technology
17.4x
+191%
5Y Avg
93.0x
-46%
Price/FCF
15.6x
S&P 500
21.3x
-27%
Technology
19.8x
-21%
5Y Avg
66.2x
-76%
Price/Sales
4.6x
S&P 500
3.1x
+47%
Technology
2.4x
+91%
5Y Avg
5.1x
-10%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.88%
—
Technology
1.18%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | NTNX | S&P 500 | Technology | 5Y Avg NTNX |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 23.6x | 19.1x+24% | 21.7x | — |
| Trailing PE | 66.4x | 25.2x+163% | 27.5x+141% | 115.6x-43% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.75x | 1.47x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 50.5x | 15.3x+231% | 17.4x+191% | 93.0x-46% |
| Price/FCF | 15.6x | 21.3x-27% | 19.8x-21% | 66.2x-76% |
| Price/Sales | 4.6x | 3.1x+47% | 2.4x+91% | 5.1x-10% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.88% | 1.18% | — |
NTNX trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 4 of 5 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolNTNX Financial Health
Verdict
Exceptional
NTNX generates $777M in free cash flow at a 28.9% margin — 688.9% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 2.6% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$2.7B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+15.9%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
87.1%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
8.0%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
9.9%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$0.91
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$777M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
28.9%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
688.9%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
8.2%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$770M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$713M
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
0.9× FCF
~0.9 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
—
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
2.6%
Dividend
—
Buyback
2.6%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$308M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
294M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageNTNX Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Financial and Corporate Risks
Approximately 42% of Nutanix's identified risks are financial and corporate, including potential dilution of stockholder ownership from note conversions, which could depress stock prices. The company's historical financial performance may not predict future results, and failure to meet investor expectations could lead to significant stock price declines.
High Risk
Class Action Lawsuit
Nutanix is currently facing a class action lawsuit stemming from allegations of materially misleading business information issued to the public. This legal challenge could result in substantial financial liabilities and reputational damage.
Medium
Competition Risks
Nutanix faces intense competition, particularly from VMware, which was recently acquired by Broadcom. This competitive pressure could adversely affect Nutanix's market share and pricing power.
Medium
Public Cloud Shift
The ongoing shift towards public cloud infrastructure may negatively impact Nutanix's demand for its solutions in the long term. Despite strategic partnerships, such as with AMD, this trend poses a risk to future revenue growth.
Medium
Revenue Recognition Issues
In November 2025, Nutanix reported Q1 fiscal year 2026 results at the lower end of its guidance due to a revenue shift attributed to increased customer demand for flexible start dates. This has led to a lowered full-year revenue projection and a significant drop in stock price.
Lower
OEM Relationship Challenges
Nutanix has noted challenges with its OEM relationship with Dell, which could impact its ability to sell products effectively. This relationship is crucial for maintaining revenue streams.
Lower
Supply Chain Risks
Ongoing supply chain issues, particularly with CPU and memory components, may continue to hinder Nutanix's overall performance and growth. These challenges could lead to delays in product availability and increased costs.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why NTNX Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Strong Growth Potential
Nutanix is expected to continue its strong growth by increasing its customer base and platform attachment rates. Analysts see significant upside potential, with some price targets suggesting around 46.8% to 50% upside from current levels.
AI and Strategic Partnerships
Investments in AI and strategic partnerships, such as the one with AMD, are seen as drivers for future growth. The company's 'neocloud' strategy and its ability to displace VMware are also considered catalysts.
Robust Financial Strength
Nutanix boasts strong free cash flow (FCF), which is becoming increasingly critical to its valuation. FCF has shown year-over-year growth, and the company has boosted its FCF guidance, supported by a strong balance sheet with significant cash reserves.
Strategic Hybrid Cloud Positioning
Nutanix's hybrid multi-cloud positioning is viewed as strategic, especially amid rising AI complexity. This positioning allows the company to cater to diverse customer needs in an evolving market.
Opportunity to Displace VMware
The company is seen as being in the 'middle innings' of its opportunity to gain market share from VMware, which presents a significant growth avenue. This potential for market share gain is a crucial aspect of Nutanix's growth strategy.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
NTNX Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$43.13
52W Range Position
18%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$34.01
+26.8% from the low
52-Week High
$83.36
-48.3% from the high
1 Month
+9.13%
3 Month
+7.13%
YTD
-14.8%
1 Year
-40.4%
3Y CAGR
+20.7%
5Y CAGR
+8.9%
10Y CAGR
+1.5%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
NTNX vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
23.6x
vs 14.0x median
+69% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+12.2%
vs +11.0% median
+11% above peer median
Net Margin
9.9%
vs 5.1% median
+94% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NTN NTNX Nutanix, Inc. | $11.7B | 23.6x | +12.2% | 9.9% | Buy | +38.3% |
CVL CVLT Commvault Systems, Inc. | $4.5B | 24.2x | +11.0% | 6.0% | Buy | +39.9% |
SCS SCSC ScanSource, Inc. | $886M | 10.4x | -3.9% | 2.4% | Hold | +5.1% |
PST PSTG Pure Storage, Inc. | $22.0B | 29.2x | +16.4% | 5.1% | Buy | +29.4% |
HPE HPE Hewlett Packard Enterprise Company | $40.3B | 12.6x | +11.7% | -0.4% | Hold | -5.4% |
NTA NTAP NetApp, Inc. | $22.1B | 14.0x | +3.0% | 18.1% | Hold | +7.8% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
NTNX Dividend and Capital Return
NTNX returns 2.6% annually — null% through dividends and 2.6% through buybacks.
Dividend UnknownFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
2.6%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
2.6%
Dividend Yield
—
Payout Ratio
—
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.00
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
—
5Y Div CAGR
—
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
—
0 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$308M
Estimated Shares Retired
7M
Approx. Share Reduction
2.4%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
294M
At 2.4%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
FAQ
7 questionsNTNX Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Nutanix, Inc. (NTNX) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Nutanix, Inc. (NTNX) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 31 analysts covering the stock, 19 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 12 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $60, implying +38.3% from the current price of $43.
02What is the NTNX stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for NTNX is $60 based on 31 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $90 (+108.7% from today), and the low-end target is $43 (-0.3%). The base case model target is $125.
03Is Nutanix, Inc. (NTNX) stock overvalued in 2026?
NTNX trades at 23.6x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Nutanix, Inc. (NTNX) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for NTNX in 2026 are: (1) Financial and Corporate Risks — Approximately 42% of Nutanix's identified risks are financial and corporate, including potential dilution of stockholder ownership from note conversions, which could depress stock prices. (2) Class Action Lawsuit — Nutanix is currently facing a class action lawsuit stemming from allegations of materially misleading business information issued to the public. (3) Competition Risks — Nutanix faces intense competition, particularly from VMware, which was recently acquired by Broadcom. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Nutanix, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates NTNX will report consensus revenue of $3.0B (+12.2% year-over-year) and EPS of $1.52 (+67.7% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $3.5B in revenue.
06When does Nutanix, Inc. (NTNX) report its next earnings?
Nutanix, Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-05-27. Consensus expects EPS of $0.35 and revenue of $686M. Over recent quarters, NTNX has beaten EPS estimates 100% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Nutanix, Inc. generate?
Nutanix, Inc. (NTNX) generated $777M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 28.9%. NTNX returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($308M TTM).