Upside case
Bull case
—
The bull case requires both strong earnings delivery and the market pricing HPE more generously than it does today.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated May 1, 2026
Hewlett Packard Enterprise Company (HPE) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
37
analysts
15 bullish · 1 bearish · 37 covering HPE
Strong Buy
0
Buy
15
Hold
21
Sell
1
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$29
-4.4% vs today
Scenario Range
— – —
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
37
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
12.5x
Forward P/E · Market cap $39.9B
HPE price targets
Three scenarios for where HPE stock could go
Current
~$30
Confidence
58 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
—
The base case reflects analyst consensus expectations — steady delivery without requiring a major catalyst or re-rating.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Hewlett Packard Enterprise Company
HPE · NYSETechnologyCommunication EquipmentOctober year-end
Hewlett Packard Enterprise is a global technology company that provides enterprise hardware, software, and services for hybrid cloud and edge computing environments. It generates revenue primarily through server and storage sales (~40% of revenue), intelligent edge networking solutions (~30%), and high-performance computing and AI systems (~15%), supplemented by financial services and software. The company's key advantage lies in its integrated HPE GreenLake platform — which offers everything-as-a-service consumption models — and its deep enterprise relationships built over decades.
Market Cap
$39.9B
Revenue TTM
$35.8B
Net Income TTM
-$156M
Net Margin
-0.4%
HPE Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
67%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+6.5%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$0.38/$0.35
Revenue
$7.6B/$7.5B
Q3 2025
EPS
$0.44/$0.42
Revenue
$9.1B/$8.8B
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.62/$0.58
Revenue
$9.7B/$9.9B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.65/$0.59
Revenue
$9.3B/$9.3B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $0.38/$0.35 | +9.7% | $7.6B/$7.5B | +1.9% |
| Q3 2025 | $0.44/$0.42 | +5.5% | $9.1B/$8.8B | +3.3% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.62/$0.58 | +7.1% | $9.7B/$9.9B | -2.1% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.65/$0.59 | +10.7% | $9.3B/$9.3B | -0.5% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$40.0B
+11.7% YoY
FY2
$43.2B
+8.2% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$1.11
+1066.4% YoY
FY2
$1.26
+13.3% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$4.4B
FCF Margin: 12.2%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
HPE beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
HPE Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $34.3B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Server Segment
51.4%
+10.7% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Americas
46.2%
+19.7% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Server Segment is the largest disclosed segment at 51.4% of FY 2025 revenue, up 10.7% YoY.
Americas is the largest reported region at 46.2%, up 19.7% YoY.
HPE Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Undervalued
Fair value est. $33 — implies +16.9% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
16.9%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
HPE
-673.5x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
2782% discount
vs Technology Trailing P/E
HPE
-673.5x
vs
Technology
26.7x
2620% discount
vs HPE 5Y Avg P/E
Today
-673.5x
vs
5Y Average
11.8x
5786% discount
Forward PE
12.5x
S&P 500
19.1x
-35%
Technology
22.1x
-44%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
-673.5x
S&P 500
25.1x
-2782%
Technology
26.7x
-2620%
5Y Avg
11.8x
-5786%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.72x
—
Technology
1.52x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
12.9x
S&P 500
15.2x
-15%
Technology
17.5x
-26%
5Y Avg
7.2x
+79%
Price/FCF
63.7x
S&P 500
21.1x
+202%
Technology
19.5x
+226%
5Y Avg
19.2x
+232%
Price/Sales
1.2x
S&P 500
3.1x
-63%
Technology
2.4x
-52%
5Y Avg
0.8x
+50%
Dividend Yield
2.00%
S&P 500
1.87%
+7%
Technology
1.16%
+73%
5Y Avg
2.92%
-32%
| Metric | HPE | S&P 500 | Technology | 5Y Avg HPE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 12.5x | 19.1x-35% | 22.1x-44% | — |
| Trailing PE | -673.5x | 25.1x-2782% | 26.7x-2620% | 11.8x-5786% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.72x | 1.52x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.9x | 15.2x-15% | 17.5x-26% | 7.2x+79% |
| Price/FCF | 63.7x | 21.1x+202% | 19.5x+226% | 19.2x+232% |
| Price/Sales | 1.2x | 3.1x-63% | 2.4x-52% | 0.8x+50% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.00% | 1.87% | 1.16% | 2.92% |
HPE trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 1 of 5 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolHPE Financial Health
Verdict
Stressed
HPE generates $4.4B in free cash flow at a 12.2% margin — returns 2.5% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$35.8B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+14.9%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
30.7%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
5.8%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
-0.4%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$-0.12
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$4.4B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
12.2%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
3.5%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
-0.2%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$5.8B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$16.6B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
3.8× FCF
~3.8 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
-0.6%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
2.5%
Dividend
2.0%
Buyback
0.5%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$202M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$0.60
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
1396.5%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
1.3B
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageHPE Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Debt & Liquidity Constraints
HPE carries $17.7B total debt with a debt‑to‑equity of 0.98. Current and quick ratios of 1.01 and 0.76, plus $1.3B negative working capital, place the company in a fragile liquidity position. Altman Z‑score of 0.73 signals a 4.4‑6.7% bankruptcy probability within two years.
High Risk
Cybersecurity Threats (APT)
HPE has been targeted by sophisticated APT campaigns such as Midnight Blizzard, exposing it to state‑sponsored attacks that can cause data loss and prolonged downtime. The increasing frequency of long‑standing vulnerabilities and faster attack containment cycles heighten the risk of operational disruption.
High Risk
Profitability & Margin Pressure
Net margin sits at a razor‑thin 0.17% and EPS is currently negative at –$0.06. Gross margins have slipped roughly 6% due to aggressive pricing and intense competition, threatening the company’s ability to generate sustainable earnings.
High Risk
Acquisition‑Related Debt Risk
The planned $14B purchase of Juniper Networks could significantly raise HPE’s debt load and interest expenses, especially if AI and cloud margins remain uncertain. DOJ scrutiny adds regulatory uncertainty that could delay or derail the deal, impacting projected synergies.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why HPE Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Juniper Acquisition Fuels Networking Expansion
HPE’s $14 billion purchase of Juniper Networks is expected to double its networking revenue and broaden its total addressable market. The deal brings Juniper’s Mist AI platform, enabling unified network management and targeting high‑margin AI‑driven operations revenue.
AI Infrastructure Backlog Drives Growth
HPE boasts an AI systems backlog exceeding $5 billion, positioning it as a leader in AI infrastructure. By bundling supercomputing, storage, and NVIDIA GPUs into “AI factories,” the company offers turnkey solutions that are projected to lift EPS by 39.9% annually.
GreenLake Subscription Model Expands Recurring Revenue
HPE’s consumption‑based GreenLake services are a key driver of recurring revenue, with the firm aiming to convert its entire portfolio to subscription offerings by fiscal 2026. This shift is expected to accelerate ARR expansion and provide a stable revenue base.
Strong Q1 Results Validate Strategy
In the first quarter, HPE delivered double‑digit revenue growth and earnings that beat expectations, prompting an upward revision of its networking and free‑cash‑flow outlook. For FY2026, the company reaffirmed a revenue growth guidance of 17%‑22% and raised its non‑GAAP diluted EPS guidance.
Strategic Shift to Higher‑Margin Services
HPE is moving away from low‑margin hardware toward higher‑value networking, AI, and hybrid‑cloud services, supported by the Juniper acquisition. This transition is expected to increase profitability and create more recurring revenue streams.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
HPE Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$30.04
52W Range Position
99%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$16.17
+85.8% from the low
52-Week High
$30.15
-0.4% from the high
1 Month
+22.21%
3 Month
+32.28%
YTD
+24.3%
1 Year
+80.2%
3Y CAGR
+28.6%
5Y CAGR
+13.5%
10Y CAGR
+12.6%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
HPE vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
12.5x
vs 18.4x median
-32% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+11.7%
vs +4.2% median
+176% above peer median
Net Margin
-0.4%
vs 15.6% median
-103% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HPE HPE Hewlett Packard Enterprise Company | $39.9B | 12.5x | +11.7% | -0.4% | Hold | -4.4% |
DEL DELL Dell Technologies Inc. | $72.3B | 21.7x | +4.6% | 5.2% | Buy | -22.1% |
IBM IBM International Business Machines Corporation | $214.8B | 18.4x | +4.9% | 15.6% | Hold | +35.2% |
NTA NTAP NetApp, Inc. | $22.6B | 14.3x | +3.0% | 18.1% | Hold | +5.6% |
HPQ HPQ HP Inc. | $19.4B | 7.4x | +0.1% | 4.5% | Hold | -6.4% |
CSC CSCO Cisco Systems, Inc. | $373.4B | 22.7x | +4.2% | 18.8% | Buy | +2.3% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
HPE Dividend and Capital Return
HPE returns 2.5% total yield, led by a 2.00% dividend. Buybacks add another 0.5%.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
2.5%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.5%
Dividend Yield
2.00%
Payout Ratio
14.0%
How HPE Splits Its Return
Div 2.00%
Buyback 0.5%
Dividend 2.00%Buybacks 0.5%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.60
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
3Y
3Y Div CAGR
3.5%
5Y Div CAGR
2.1%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$202M
Estimated Shares Retired
7M
Approx. Share Reduction
0.5%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
1.3B
At 0.5%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.14 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $0.53 | +2.4% | 0.6% | 3.1% |
| 2024 | $0.52 | +6.1% | 0.6% | 3.2% |
| 2023 | $0.49 | +2.1% | 2.1% | 5.1% |
| 2022 | $0.48 | 0.0% | 2.7% | 6.0% |
FAQ
7 questionsHPE Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Hewlett Packard Enterprise Company (HPE) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Hewlett Packard Enterprise Company (HPE) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 37 analysts covering the stock, 15 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 21 rate it Hold, and 1 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $29, implying -4.4% from the current price of $30.
02What is the HPE stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for HPE is $29 based on 37 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $31 (+3.2% from today), and the low-end target is $23 (-23.4%).
03Is Hewlett Packard Enterprise Company (HPE) stock overvalued in 2026?
HPE trades at 12.5x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Hewlett Packard Enterprise Company (HPE) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for HPE in 2026 are: (1) Debt & Liquidity Constraints — HPE carries $17. (2) Cybersecurity Threats (APT) — HPE has been targeted by sophisticated APT campaigns such as Midnight Blizzard, exposing it to state‑sponsored attacks that can cause data loss and prolonged downtime. (3) Profitability & Margin Pressure — Net margin sits at a razor‑thin 0. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Hewlett Packard Enterprise Company's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates HPE will report consensus revenue of $40.0B (+11.7% year-over-year) and EPS of $1.11 (+1066.4% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $43.2B in revenue.
06When does Hewlett Packard Enterprise Company (HPE) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for HPE is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Hewlett Packard Enterprise Company generate?
Hewlett Packard Enterprise Company (HPE) generated $4.4B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 12.2%. HPE returns capital to shareholders through dividends (2.0% yield) and share repurchases ($202M TTM).