Upside case
Bull case
$65-79.4%
The bull case prices ONC at 11x on FY1 earnings, assuming continued execution and no meaningful deceleration in the core business.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
BeOne Medicines Ltd. (ONC) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
13
analysts
12 bullish · 0 bearish · 13 covering ONC
Strong Buy
0
Buy
12
Hold
1
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$401
+28.1% vs today
Scenario Range
— – $65
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
13
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
51.3x
Forward P/E · Market cap $33.5B
ONC price targets
Three scenarios for where ONC stock could go
Current
~$313
Confidence
40 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $313
Base
$121
Bull
$65
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$121-61.5%
At 20x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
BeOne Medicines Ltd.
ONC · NASDAQHealthcareMedical - PharmaceuticalsDecember year-end
BeOne Medicines is a global oncology company that discovers, develops, and commercializes innovative cancer therapies. It generates revenue primarily from sales of its approved drugs—including Brukinsa (zanubrutinib) and Tevimbra (tislelizumab)—which target hematologic malignancies and solid tumors across major global markets. The company's competitive advantage lies in its deep expertise in immuno-oncology and targeted therapies, combined with a global commercial footprint that spans over 45 countries.
Market Cap
$33.5B
Revenue TTM
$5.7B
Net Income TTM
$513M
Net Margin
8.9%
ONC Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
63%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
50%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+436.6%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.84/$0.48
Revenue
$1.3B/$1.4B
Q4 2025
EPS
$1.09/$0.72
Revenue
$1.4B/$1.5B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.58/$1.60
Revenue
$1.5B/$1.5B
Q2 2026
EPS
$26.65/$0.81
Revenue
$1.5B/$1.4B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.84/$0.48 | +75.0% | $1.3B/$1.4B | -8.8% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.09/$0.72 | +51.4% | $1.4B/$1.5B | -2.7% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.58/$1.60 | -63.7% | $1.5B/$1.5B | +2.2% |
| Q2 2026 | $26.65/$0.81 | +3206.5% | $1.5B/$1.4B | +5.4% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$6.9B
+29.9% YoY
FY2
$9.1B
+31.4% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$6.89
+172.4% YoY
FY2
$12.66
+83.8% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$846M
FCF Margin: 14.7%
Next Earnings
May 6, 2026
Expected EPS
$1.03
Expected Revenue
$1.4B
ONC beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
ONC Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $6.8B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Product
99.1%
YoY unavailable
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
55.7%
YoY unavailable
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Product is the largest disclosed segment at 99.1% of FY 2025 revenue, with no year-over-year comparison yet.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 55.7%, with no year-over-year comparison yet.
ONC Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Fairly Valued
Fair value est. $283 — implies -3.8% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
3.8%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
ONC
9.5x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
62% discount
vs Healthcare Trailing P/E
ONC
9.5x
vs
Healthcare
22.1x
57% discount
vs ONC 5Y Avg P/E
Today
9.5x
vs
5Y Average
9.2x
In line with benchmark
Forward PE
51.3x
S&P 500
19.1x
+169%
Healthcare
19.0x
+169%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
9.5x
S&P 500
25.2x
-62%
Healthcare
22.1x
-57%
5Y Avg
9.2x
+3%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.75x
—
Healthcare
1.52x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
52.5x
S&P 500
15.3x
+244%
Healthcare
14.1x
+272%
5Y Avg
54.2x
-3%
Price/FCF
35.6x
S&P 500
21.3x
+67%
Healthcare
18.7x
+91%
5Y Avg
36.6x
-3%
Price/Sales
6.3x
S&P 500
3.1x
+100%
Healthcare
2.8x
+120%
5Y Avg
11.3x
-45%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.88%
—
Healthcare
1.40%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | ONC | S&P 500 | Healthcare | 5Y Avg ONC |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 51.3x | 19.1x+169% | 19.0x+169% | — |
| Trailing PE | 9.5x | 25.2x-62% | 22.1x-57% | 9.2x |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.75x | 1.52x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 52.5x | 15.3x+244% | 14.1x+272% | 54.2x |
| Price/FCF | 35.6x | 21.3x+67% | 18.7x+91% | 36.6x |
| Price/Sales | 6.3x | 3.1x+100% | 2.8x+120% | 11.3x-45% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.88% | 1.40% | — |
ONC trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 4 of 5 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolONC Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
ONC generates $846M in free cash flow at a 14.7% margin — 18.6% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$5.7B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+37.4%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
88.3%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
12.0%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
8.9%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$4.43
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$846M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
14.7%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
18.6%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
6.7%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$4.5B
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$2.5B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
Net cash ✓
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
12.1%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.0%
Dividend
—
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
107M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageONC Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Cash Burn Risk
ONC’s operating cash burn remains high, with no guaranteed return on the outflows. The lack of a clear path to recouping these expenditures threatens financial stability if funding gaps arise.
High Risk
Pipeline Development Risk
The company faces potential failures in additional indications and slower‑than‑expected uptake of current products, which could materially reduce future revenue streams. Pipeline programs that do not meet milestones may significantly impact the projected growth trajectory.
Medium
Market Competition Risk
The oncology market is intensely competitive, particularly for the flagship product BRUKINSA. Rival therapies and emerging competitors could erode market share and pricing power.
Medium
Geopolitical Perception Risk
Perceptions related to geopolitical factors can influence investor sentiment and access to capital, potentially affecting ONC’s financial prospects. Unfavorable geopolitical developments may also impact regulatory approvals or market entry.
Lower
Valuation Concerns Risk
Analysts assign a Value Score of D, suggesting the stock may be overvalued relative to its fundamentals. This perception could deter value‑oriented investors and limit upside potential.
Lower
Technical Indicator Weakness
Technical analyses flag a "Strong Sell" or "Sell" sentiment based on RSI and moving averages, with a negative volume balance indicating weakness. Such signals may presage short‑term price declines.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why ONC Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
BRUKINSA Peak Sales Potential
BRUKINSA, BeOne’s flagship BTK inhibitor, is projected to reach peak sales of approximately $7.1 billion. This represents a major growth driver that could significantly boost the company’s top line.
Robust 2025 Revenue Growth
Full‑year 2025 revenue hit $5.343 billion, up 40% YoY, and the company achieved GAAP profitability and strong free cash flow. Guidance for 2026 revenue is $6.2–$6.4 billion, indicating continued momentum.
Expanding Pipeline & 2026 FDA Approvals
Beyond BRUKINSA, the pipeline includes sonrotoclax (BCL2 inhibitor) and a BTK‑CDAC compound, with FDA approvals expected in 2026. These assets diversify revenue streams and support long‑term growth.
Strategic Oncology Market Position
BeOne is actively expanding its oncology footprint, implementing strategies to accelerate BRUKINSA commercialization. Rapid market expansion is viewed as a key driver for sustained growth.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
ONC Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$313.32
52W Range Position
57%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$218.31
+43.5% from the low
52-Week High
$385.22
-18.7% from the high
1 Month
+3.60%
3 Month
-11.47%
YTD
+0.7%
1 Year
+29.6%
3Y CAGR
+7.3%
5Y CAGR
-0.0%
10Y CAGR
+28.1%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
ONC vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
51.3x
vs 27.4x median
+87% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+29.9%
vs -2.5% median
+1314% above peer median
Net Margin
8.9%
vs -76.6% median
+112% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ONC ONC BeOne Medicines Ltd. | $33.5B | 51.3x | +29.9% | 8.9% | Buy | +28.1% |
ZYM ZYME Zymeworks Inc. | $2.1B | 23.3x | +62.5% | -76.6% | Buy | +38.8% |
RCU RCUS Arcus Biosciences, Inc. | $2.6B | — | -5.0% | -156.4% | Buy | +15.4% |
TGT TGTX TG Therapeutics, Inc. | $6.7B | 31.5x | +59.7% | 66.0% | Buy | -7.1% |
KYM KYMR Kymera Therapeutics, Inc. | $7.0B | — | -16.7% | -612.2% | Buy | +35.7% |
MGN MGNX MacroGenics, Inc. | $191M | — | -2.5% | -49.9% | Buy | +99.3% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
FAQ
7 questionsONC Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is BeOne Medicines Ltd. (ONC) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
BeOne Medicines Ltd. (ONC) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 13 analysts covering the stock, 12 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 1 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $401, implying +28.1% from the current price of $313.
02What is the ONC stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for ONC is $401 based on 13 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $425 (+35.6% from today), and the low-end target is $340 (+8.5%). The base case model target is $121.
03Is BeOne Medicines Ltd. (ONC) stock overvalued in 2026?
ONC trades at 51.3x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals fairly valued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for BeOne Medicines Ltd. (ONC) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for ONC in 2026 are: (1) Cash Burn Risk — ONC’s operating cash burn remains high, with no guaranteed return on the outflows. (2) Pipeline Development Risk — The company faces potential failures in additional indications and slower‑than‑expected uptake of current products, which could materially reduce future revenue streams. (3) Market Competition Risk — The oncology market is intensely competitive, particularly for the flagship product BRUKINSA. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is BeOne Medicines Ltd.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates ONC will report consensus revenue of $6.9B (+29.9% year-over-year) and EPS of $6.89 (+172.4% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $9.1B in revenue.
06When does BeOne Medicines Ltd. (ONC) report its next earnings?
BeOne Medicines Ltd. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-05-06. Consensus expects EPS of $1.03 and revenue of $1.4B. Over recent quarters, ONC has beaten EPS estimates 63% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does BeOne Medicines Ltd. generate?
BeOne Medicines Ltd. (ONC) generated $846M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 14.7%. ONC returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($0 TTM).