Upside case
Bull case
$36-86.8%
The bull case prices ONC at 5x on FY1 earnings, assuming continued execution and no meaningful deceleration in the core business.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
BeOne Medicines Ltd. (ONC) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
14
analysts
13 bullish · 0 bearish · 14 covering ONC
Strong Buy
0
Buy
13
Hold
1
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$399
+47.7% vs today
Scenario Range
$17 – $36
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
14
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
40.1x
Forward P/E · Market cap $28.9B
ONC price targets
Three scenarios for where ONC stock could go
Current
~$270
Confidence
57 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $270
Bear
$17
Base
$27
Bull
$36
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$27-90.0%
At 4x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$17-93.7%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 38x multiple contraction could push ONC down roughly 94% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
BeOne Medicines Ltd.
ONC · NASDAQHealthcareMedical - PharmaceuticalsDecember year-end
BeOne Medicines is a global oncology company that discovers, develops, and commercializes innovative cancer therapies. It generates revenue primarily from sales of its approved drugs—including Brukinsa (zanubrutinib) and Tevimbra (tislelizumab)—which target hematologic malignancies and solid tumors across major global markets. The company's competitive advantage lies in its deep expertise in immuno-oncology and targeted therapies, combined with a global commercial footprint that spans over 45 countries.
Market Cap
$28.9B
Revenue TTM
$5.7B
Net Income TTM
$513M
Net Margin
8.9%
ONC Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
63%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
50%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+56.9%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.84/$0.48
Revenue
$1.3B/$1.4B
Q4 2025
EPS
$1.09/$0.72
Revenue
$1.4B/$1.5B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.58/$1.60
Revenue
$1.5B/$1.5B
Q2 2026
EPS
$1.96/$0.73
Revenue
$1.5B/$1.5B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.84/$0.48 | +75.0% | $1.3B/$1.4B | -8.8% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.09/$0.72 | +51.4% | $1.4B/$1.5B | -2.7% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.58/$1.60 | -63.7% | $1.5B/$1.5B | +2.2% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.96/$0.73 | +168.5% | $1.5B/$1.5B | +2.5% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$6.6B
+14.3% YoY
FY2
$7.5B
+14.2% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$3.76
-15.1% YoY
FY2
$3.35
-10.8% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$847M
FCF Margin: 14.8%
Next Earnings
August 5, 2026
Expected EPS
$1.65
Expected Revenue
$1.6B
ONC beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
ONC Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $6.8B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Product
99.1%
YoY unavailable
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
55.7%
YoY unavailable
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Product is the largest disclosed segment at 99.1% of FY 2025 revenue, with no year-over-year comparison yet.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 55.7%, with no year-over-year comparison yet.
ONC Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Premium mostly justified
Fair value est. $226 — implies -16.5% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
16.5%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
ONC
8.2x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
66% discount
vs Healthcare Trailing P/E
ONC
8.2x
vs
Healthcare
22.1x
63% discount
vs ONC 5Y Avg P/E
Today
8.2x
vs
5Y Average
9.2x
11% discount
Forward PE
40.1x
S&P 500
18.8x
+113%
Healthcare
18.3x
+119%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
8.2x
S&P 500
24.4x
-66%
Healthcare
22.1x
-63%
5Y Avg
9.2x
-11%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.66x
—
Healthcare
1.59x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
44.7x
S&P 500
15.2x
+194%
Healthcare
14.2x
+214%
5Y Avg
54.2x
-18%
Price/FCF
30.7x
S&P 500
20.7x
+48%
Healthcare
18.5x
+65%
5Y Avg
36.6x
-16%
Price/Sales
5.4x
S&P 500
3.1x
+75%
Healthcare
2.6x
+105%
5Y Avg
11.3x
-52%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.91%
—
Healthcare
1.50%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | ONC | S&P 500 | Healthcare | 5Y Avg ONC |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 40.1x | 18.8x+113% | 18.3x+119% | — |
| Trailing PE | 8.2x | 24.4x-66% | 22.1x-63% | 9.2x-11% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.66x | 1.59x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 44.7x | 15.2x+194% | 14.2x+214% | 54.2x-18% |
| Price/FCF | 30.7x | 20.7x+48% | 18.5x+65% | 36.6x-16% |
| Price/Sales | 5.4x | 3.1x+75% | 2.6x+105% | 11.3x-52% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.91% | 1.50% | — |
ONC trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 4 of 5 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolONC Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
ONC generates $847M in free cash flow at a 14.8% margin — 18.6% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$5.7B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+37.4%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
88.3%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
12.0%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
8.9%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$4.43
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$847M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
14.8%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
18.6%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
6.7%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$4.5B
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$2.5B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
Net cash ✓
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
12.1%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.0%
Dividend
—
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
107M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageONC Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Medium
Share price volatility
Despite analyst upgrades and positive ASCO 2026 data, BeOne Medicines' 1-month share price return is down 13.46%, indicating potential investor skepticism or market volatility.
High Risk
Earnings sustainability
The company's transition to GAAP profitability and its ability to support durable earnings beyond its key product Brukinza remain critical risks.
Medium
Oncology portfolio execution
While BeOne has plans for multiple registrational trials, the success of its solid tumor candidates and broader oncology portfolio is uncertain.
Lower
Market sentiment shifts
The stock has experienced choppy performance, with a 1-month share price return of -13.71%, reflecting potential shifts in investor sentiment.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why ONC Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
B-cell malignancy market opportunity
BeOne Medicines is positioned to capitalize on the $15 billion B-cell malignancy market, with upcoming data catalysts expected to validate its clinical and commercial potential.
Investor relations transparency
The company provides comprehensive business information for stockholders, potential investors, and financial analysts through its Investor Relations website.
Detailed analyst coverage
MarketBeat offers extensive SEC filings and reports on BeOne Medicines, including annual and quarterly filings, providing transparency and insights for investors.
Clinical data catalysts
Upcoming 2026 data releases are expected to validate BeOne Medicines' clinical progress and commercial potential, serving as key milestones for investors.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
ONC Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$270.15
52W Range Position
21%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$239.25
+12.9% from the low
52-Week High
$385.22
-29.9% from the high
1 Month
-7.83%
3 Month
-4.30%
YTD
-13.1%
1 Year
+6.9%
3Y CAGR
+12.1%
5Y CAGR
-3.4%
10Y CAGR
+24.6%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
ONC vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
40.1x
vs 27.7x median
+45% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+14.3%
vs +22.0% median
-35% below peer median
Net Margin
8.9%
vs -126.3% median
+107% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ONC ONC BeOne Medicines Ltd. | $28.9B | 40.1x | +14.3% | 8.9% | Buy | +47.7% |
ZYM ZYME Zymeworks Inc. | $1.7B | 16.9x | +22.0% | -126.3% | Buy | +75.8% |
RCU RCUS Arcus Biosciences, Inc. | $2.4B | — | +35.0% | -156.4% | Buy | +27.5% |
TGT TGTX TG Therapeutics, Inc. | $8.1B | 38.6x | +20.8% | 66.0% | Buy | +2.4% |
KYM KYMR Kymera Therapeutics, Inc. | $7.4B | — | +23.7% | -612.2% | Buy | +24.5% |
MGN MGNX MacroGenics, Inc. | $263M | — | +5.0% | -44.8% | Buy | +45.3% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
FAQ
7 questionsONC Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is BeOne Medicines Ltd. (ONC) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
BeOne Medicines Ltd. (ONC) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 14 analysts covering the stock, 13 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 1 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $399, implying +47.7% from the current price of $270. The bear case scenario is $17 and the bull case is $36.
02What is the ONC stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for ONC is $399 based on 14 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $436 (+61.4% from today), and the low-end target is $340 (+25.9%). The base case model target is $27.
03Is BeOne Medicines Ltd. (ONC) stock overvalued in 2026?
ONC trades at 40.1x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals premium mostly justified. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for BeOne Medicines Ltd. (ONC) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for ONC in 2026 are: (1) Earnings sustainability — The company's transition to GAAP profitability and its ability to support durable earnings beyond its key product Brukinza remain critical risks. (2) Share price volatility — Despite analyst upgrades and positive ASCO 2026 data, BeOne Medicines' 1-month share price return is down 13. (3) Oncology portfolio execution — While BeOne has plans for multiple registrational trials, the success of its solid tumor candidates and broader oncology portfolio is uncertain. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is BeOne Medicines Ltd.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates ONC will report consensus revenue of $6.6B (+14.3% year-over-year) and EPS of $3.76 (-15.1% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $7.5B in revenue.
06When does BeOne Medicines Ltd. (ONC) report its next earnings?
BeOne Medicines Ltd. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-08-05. Consensus expects EPS of $1.65 and revenue of $1.6B. Over recent quarters, ONC has beaten EPS estimates 63% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does BeOne Medicines Ltd. generate?
BeOne Medicines Ltd. (ONC) generated $847M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 14.8%. ONC returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($0 TTM).