Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc. (REFI) Price Target Analysis
Updated Jun 18, 2026
Analyst Rating: Buy
Based on 6 analysts48.5% Below Target
REFI trades 48.5% below Wall Street's consensus target of $17.00.
Current Price$11.45
Average Target$17.00
Target
Current
Low$14.00
Median$17.00
High$20.00
Analyst Target Range
Forward P/E6.0x
(Value)
PEG Ratio—
Implied Growth+32.5%
(High Growth)
Analyst Spread35.3%
(Moderate)
Price Forecast (1 Year)
Last 12 months price action with 12-month analyst target path
Consensus Scenario Assumptions
The base valuation assumes REFI achieves its forward estimates and maintains a stable P/E multiple of 6.0x. This scenario reflects the blended consensus of 6 Wall Street analysts, balancing both positive catalysts and macroeconomic headwinds over the next 12 months.
REFI Price Target Analysis
Updated June 22, 2026As of June 22, 2026, Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc. (REFI) has a Wall Street consensus price target of $17.00, based on estimates from 6 covering analysts. With the stock currently trading at $11.45, this represents a potential upside of +48.5%. The company has a market capitalization of $243M.
Analyst price targets range from a low of $14.00 to a high of $20.00, representing a 35% spread in expectations. The median target of $17.00 aligns closely with the consensus average.
The current analyst consensus rating is Buy, with 5 analysts rating the stock as a Buy or Strong Buy,1 rating it Hold, and 0 rating it Sell or Strong Sell. This overwhelmingly bullish sentiment suggests analysts see significant catalysts for upside ahead.
From a valuation perspective, REFI trades at a trailing P/E of 6.8x and forward P/E of 6.0x. Analysts expect EPS to grow +32.5% over the next year.
Our proprietary valuation model, which blends historical multiples with forward estimates, suggests a base-case price target of $637.52, with bear and bull scenarios of $401.64 and $840.00 respectively. Model confidence stands at 45/100, suggesting limited visibility into future performance.
Investment Context: Price targets represent analyst expectations for the next 12 months and should be considered alongside your own research. Targets are based on analysts' assumptions about earnings growth, margins, and market conditions which may change. For sector-specific context, view other Real Estate stocks.
Analyst Sentiment Comparison
Industry Peer AnalysisAvg Peer Upside
+40.8%
Industry Consensus
Avg Forward P/E
12.1x
(Value)
Peers with Coverage
10 / 10
Active Analyst Tracking
| Company | Market Cap | Price | Target | Upside Potential | Rating | Fwd P/E | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 SUNSSunrise Realty Trust, Inc. | $114M | $8.46 | $15.25 | +80.3% | Hold | 7.0x | 8 |
 TPVGTriplePoint Venture Growth BDC Corp. | $203M | $5.00 | $8.95 | +79.0% | Hold | 5.3x | 12 |
 IIPRInnovative Industrial Properties, Inc. | $1.7B | $59.60 | $84.67 | +42.1% | Hold | 13.9x | 11 |
 STWDStarwood Property Trust, Inc. | $6.2B | $16.70 | $19.33 | +15.7% | Buy | 9.7x | 21 |
 ACREAres Commercial Real Estate Corporation | $256M | $4.62 | $5.25 | +13.6% | Buy | 35.6x | 13 |
 BXMTBlackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. | $3.1B | $18.09 | $21.00 | +16.1% | Hold | 12.4x | 18 |
 RCReady Capital Corporation | $289M | $1.75 | $2.50 | +42.9% | Buy | — | 16 |
 GPMTGranite Point Mortgage Trust Inc. | $63M | $1.32 | $2.50 | +89.4% | Hold | — | 12 |
 TRTXTPG RE Finance Trust, Inc. | $665M | $8.60 | $10.00 | +16.3% | Buy | 8.2x | 11 |
 PSECProspect Capital Corporation | $1.1B | $2.21 | $2.50 | +13.1% | Hold | 4.8x | 20 |
REFI — Frequently Asked Questions
Quick answers to the most common questions about buying REFI stock.
What is the REFI stock price target for 2026?
The consensus Wall Street price target for REFI is $17, representing 48.5% upside from the current price of $11.45. With 6 analysts covering the stock, this strong upside suggests significant value not yet reflected in today's share price.
Is REFI a buy, sell, or hold?
REFI has a consensus rating of "Buy" based on 6 Wall Street analysts. The rating breakdown is predominantly bullish, with 5 Buy/Strong Buy ratings. The consensus 12-month price target of $17 implies 48.5% upside from current levels.
Is REFI stock overvalued or undervalued?
With a forward P/E of 6.0263x, REFI trades at a relatively low valuation. The consensus target of $17 implies 48.5% appreciation, suggesting meaningful undervaluation.
How high can REFI stock go?
The most bullish Wall Street analyst has a price target of $20 for REFI, while the most conservative target is $14. The consensus of $17 represents the median expectation. Our quantitative valuation model projects a bull case target of $840 based on optimistic growth and margin assumptions. These targets typically reflect 12-month expectations.
How many analysts cover REFI stock?
REFI is moderately covered, with 6 analysts providing price targets and ratings. Of these, 0 have Strong Buy ratings, 5 have Buy ratings, 1 recommend Hold, and 0 have Sell or Strong Sell ratings. Higher analyst coverage generally indicates greater institutional interest and more reliable consensus estimates.
What is the REFI stock forecast?
The 12-month REFI stock forecast based on 6 Wall Street analysts shows a consensus price target of $17, with estimates ranging from $14 (bear case) to $20 (bull case). The median consensus rating is "Buy". Our proprietary valuation model produces a base case fair value of $638, with bear/bull scenarios of $402/$840.
What is REFI's fair value based on fundamentals?
Our quantitative valuation model calculates REFI's fair value at $638 (base case), with a bear case of $402 and bull case of $840. The model uses discounted cash flow analysis, historical growth rates, and margin mean-reversion to project FY+2 earnings, then applies an appropriate P/E multiple. The model confidence score is 45/100.
What is REFI's forward P/E ratio?
REFI trades at a forward P/E ratio of 6.0x based on next-twelve-months earnings estimates compared to a trailing P/E of 6.8x. The lower forward P/E indicates analysts expect earnings growth. A forward P/E is useful for comparing valuations when earnings are expected to change significantly.
Should I buy REFI stock?
Wall Street analysts are very optimistic on REFI, with a "Buy" consensus rating and $17 price target (48.5% upside). 5 of 6 analysts rate it Buy or Strong Buy. This information is for educational purposes only. Always conduct your own research, consider your financial situation, and consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Why do REFI price targets vary so much?
REFI analyst price targets range from $14 to $20, a 35% moderate spread showing some variance in outlooks. Differences stem from varying assumptions about revenue growth, profit margins, competitive dynamics, and valuation multiples. The $17 consensus represents the middle ground. Our model's $402-$840 range provides an independent fundamental perspective.
Consensus-Based Analysis Tools
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