Upside case
Bull case
$16+14.4%
RKT would need investors to value it at roughly 22x earnings — about 3x more generous than today's 19x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Rocket Companies, Inc. (RKT) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
25
analysts
6 bullish · 3 bearish · 25 covering RKT
Strong Buy
0
Buy
6
Hold
16
Sell
3
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$22
+50.0% vs today
Scenario Range
$8 – $16
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
25
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
19.5x
Forward P/E · Market cap $40.7B
RKT price targets
Three scenarios for where RKT stock could go
Current
~$14
Confidence
54 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $14
Bear
$8
Base
$13
Bull
$16
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$13-13.2%
At 17x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$8-45.4%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 9x multiple contraction could push RKT down roughly 45% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Rocket Companies, Inc.
RKT · NYSEFinancial ServicesFinancial - MortgagesDecember year-end
Rocket Companies is a technology-driven financial services firm primarily focused on mortgage lending and real estate services. It generates revenue mainly through mortgage origination fees and interest income from its Rocket Mortgage platform — which accounts for the vast majority of its business — supplemented by title insurance, real estate services, and other financial products. The company's key advantage is its proprietary technology platform that enables fast, digital mortgage processing, creating significant scale and customer experience advantages over traditional lenders.
Market Cap
$40.7B
Revenue TTM
$8.5B
Net Income TTM
$239M
Net Margin
2.8%
RKT Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+53.1%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.04/$0.03
Revenue
$1.3B/$1.3B
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.07/$0.04
Revenue
$1.6B/$1.7B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.11/$0.09
Revenue
$2.7B/$2.2B
Q2 2026
EPS
$0.15/$0.12
Revenue
$2.9B/$2.8B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.04/$0.03 | +46.5% | $1.3B/$1.3B | +2.1% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.07/$0.04 | +55.8% | $1.6B/$1.7B | -6.5% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.11/$0.09 | +22.8% | $2.7B/$2.2B | +21.1% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.15/$0.12 | +30.4% | $2.9B/$2.8B | +6.7% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$10.2B
+20.3% YoY
FY2
$12.3B
+20.9% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$0.23
+173.1% YoY
FY2
$0.63
+172.4% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)-$1.4B
FCF Margin: -16.4%
Next Earnings
July 30, 2026
Expected EPS
$0.19
Expected Revenue
$2.9B
RKT beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
RKT Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $5.5B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Direct To Customer Segment
87.8%
+23.1% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Direct To Customer Segment is the largest disclosed segment at 87.8% of FY 2025 revenue, up 23.1% YoY.
RKT Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Expensive versus peers
Fair value est. $4 — implies -70.5% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
70.5%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
RKT
-524.4x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
2245% discount
vs Financial Services Trailing P/E
RKT
-524.4x
vs
Financial Services
13.6x
3960% discount
vs RKT 5Y Avg P/E
Today
-524.4x
vs
5Y Average
93.3x
662% discount
Forward PE
19.5x
S&P 500
18.8x
+3%
Financial Services
10.7x
+82%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
-524.4x
S&P 500
24.4x
-2245%
Financial Services
13.6x
-3960%
5Y Avg
93.3x
-662%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.66x
—
Financial Services
0.95x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
42.7x
S&P 500
15.2x
+181%
Financial Services
11.4x
+275%
5Y Avg
33.1x
+29%
Price/FCF
—
S&P 500
20.7x
—
Financial Services
11.1x
—
5Y Avg
2.5x
—
Price/Sales
5.9x
S&P 500
3.1x
+91%
Financial Services
2.3x
+154%
5Y Avg
4.6x
+30%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.91%
—
Financial Services
2.63%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | RKT | S&P 500 | Financial Services | 5Y Avg RKT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 19.5x | 18.8x | 10.7x+82% | — |
| Trailing PE | -524.4x | 24.4x-2245% | 13.6x-3960% | 93.3x-662% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.66x | 0.95x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 42.7x | 15.2x+181% | 11.4x+275% | 33.1x+29% |
| Price/FCF | — | 20.7x | 11.1x | 2.5x |
| Price/Sales | 5.9x | 3.1x+91% | 2.3x+154% | 4.6x+30% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.91% | 2.63% | — |
RKT trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 2 of 4 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolRKT Financial Health
Verdict
Adequate
RKT generates 1.5% ROE and 0.5% return on assets — the two primary signals for banking profitability. FCF-based metrics are not applicable to financial companies.
Earnings Engine
Revenue, profitability, and return on capital
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$8.5B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
—
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
15.6%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
2.8%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$0.08
ROE
Return on equity — the primary profitability signal for banks
1.5%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
2.0%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
0.5%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$2.7B
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$2.7B
FCF Analysis
Traditional FCF and debt/FCF ratios are not meaningful for financial companies. Focus on ROE and ROA above.
ROE
Return on equity — the headline bank profitability metric
1.5%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.0%
Dividend
—
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
2.8B
All figures from the trailing twelve months. For financial companies, ROE and ROA are the primary health signals — FCF-based metrics are not applicable.
Open full ratios pageRKT Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
Based on the latest company results, valuation, and market data
High Risk
Direct To Customer Segment dependence
Direct To Customer Segment contributes 87.8% of the disclosed revenue mix, with the latest annual change at 23.1%. If demand in the lead segment cools, the rest of the portfolio may not be large enough to fully offset the slowdown.
Medium
Valuation de-rating
RKT trades at -524.4x trailing earnings versus 24.4x for the S&P 500 and 13.6x for its sector. If earnings delivery or sentiment slips, the stock could re-rate lower and move closer to the bear case target of $8.
Medium
Estimate execution
The next fiscal year requires Street estimates of $10.2B in revenue (20.3% growth) and $0.23 in EPS. Missing those operating targets would undermine the premium multiple investors are paying today.
Lower
Capital return support
Part of the per-share support comes from capital returns, backed by -$1.4B in trailing free cash flow, a 0.0% buyback yield. If cash generation softens, the EPS lift and downside cushion from repurchases can narrow.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why RKT Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
Based on recent company results and analyst estimates
High-margin cash engine
Rocket Companies, Inc. already operates from a position of scale, with 90.2% gross margin, 15.6% operating margin, and -$1.4B in trailing free cash flow. That combination gives management room to keep funding product investment without relying on outside capital.
Direct To Customer Segment still matters
Direct To Customer Segment accounts for 87.8% of disclosed revenue and the latest annual change was 23.1%. When the biggest revenue lines are still holding up, even modest execution improvement can translate into meaningful earnings leverage.
Upside and capital returns align
Consensus still points to $22, or 50.0% upside, while the modeled bull target reaches $16. If $10.2B in forward revenue and $0.23 in EPS are delivered, ongoing shareholder returns running at 0.0% can amplify the equity upside.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
RKT Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$14.42
52W Range Position
18%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$12.17
+18.5% from the low
52-Week High
$24.36
-40.8% from the high
1 Month
+10.58%
3 Month
+1.34%
YTD
-27.5%
1 Year
+4.6%
3Y CAGR
+17.1%
5Y CAGR
-5.8%
10Y CAGR
-3.9%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
RKT vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
19.5x
vs 8.2x median
+137% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+20.3%
vs +13.9% median
+46% above peer median
Net Margin
2.8%
vs 9.7% median
-71% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RKT RKT Rocket Companies, Inc. | $40.7B | 19.5x | +20.3% | 2.8% | Hold | +50.0% |
UWM UWMC UWM Holdings Corporation | $345M | 5.8x | +18.7% | 1.2% | Hold | +143.2% |
PFS PFSI PennyMac Financial Services, Inc. | $4.3B | 8.1x | +13.6% | 14.3% | Buy | +44.2% |
GHL GHLD Guild Holdings Company | $439M | 10.2x | +14.8% | 9.7% | Hold | -11.9% |
LDI LDI loanDepot, Inc. | $392M | — | +13.9% | -5.4% | Hold | +105.1% |
WAL WAL Western Alliance Bancorporation | $8.8B | 8.3x | +8.1% | 18.3% | Buy | +10.0% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
RKT Dividend and Capital Return
RKT does not currently return meaningful capital to shareholders.
Dividend UnknownFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
0.0%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.0%
Dividend Yield
—
Payout Ratio
—
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.00
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
-7.5%
5Y Div CAGR
—
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Annual
0 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$0
Estimated Shares Retired
0
Approx. Share Reduction
0.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
2.8B
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | $0.80 | — |
| 2022 | $1.01 | -9.0% |
| 2021 | $1.11 | — |
FAQ
7 questionsRKT Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Rocket Companies, Inc. (RKT) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Rocket Companies, Inc. (RKT) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 25 analysts covering the stock, 6 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 16 rate it Hold, and 3 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $22, implying +50.0% from the current price of $14. The bear case scenario is $8 and the bull case is $16.
02What is the RKT stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for RKT is $22 based on 25 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $25 (+73.4% from today), and the low-end target is $17 (+17.9%). The base case model target is $13.
03Is Rocket Companies, Inc. (RKT) stock overvalued in 2026?
RKT trades at 19.5x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals expensive versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Rocket Companies, Inc. (RKT) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for RKT in 2026 are: (1) Direct To Customer Segment dependence — Direct To Customer Segment contributes 87. (2) Valuation de-rating — RKT trades at -524. (3) Estimate execution — The next fiscal year requires Street estimates of $10. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Rocket Companies, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates RKT will report consensus revenue of $10.2B (+20.3% year-over-year) and EPS of $0.23 (+173.1% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $12.3B in revenue.
06When does Rocket Companies, Inc. (RKT) report its next earnings?
Rocket Companies, Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-07-30. Consensus expects EPS of $0.19 and revenue of $2.9B. Over recent quarters, RKT has beaten EPS estimates 75% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Rocket Companies, Inc. generate?
Rocket Companies, Inc. (RKT) had a free cash outflow of $1.4B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 16.4%. RKT returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($0 TTM).