Upside case
Bull case
$362+0.5%
RL would need investors to value it at roughly 22x earnings — about 0x more generous than today's 22x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Ralph Lauren Corporation (RL) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
48
analysts
32 bullish · 3 bearish · 48 covering RL
Strong Buy
1
Buy
31
Hold
13
Sell
3
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$429
+19.1% vs today
Scenario Range
$4 – $362
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
48
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
22.1x
Forward P/E · Market cap $48.7B
RL price targets
Three scenarios for where RL stock could go
Current
~$360
Confidence
60 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $360
Bear
$4
Base
$347
Bull
$362
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$347-3.7%
This is close to how the market is already pricing RL — at roughly 21x forward earnings. No dramatic re-rating needed, just steady execution on the core business.
Stress case
Bear case
$4-98.8%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 22x multiple contraction could push RL down roughly 99% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Ralph Lauren Corporation
RL · NYSEConsumer CyclicalApparel - ManufacturersMarch year-end
Ralph Lauren is a global lifestyle brand that designs, markets, and distributes premium apparel, accessories, home goods, and fragrances. It generates revenue primarily through wholesale distribution to department stores and specialty retailers (~60% of sales) and direct-to-consumer channels including its own retail stores and e-commerce (~40%). The company's moat lies in its iconic brand equity—particularly the Polo Ralph Lauren label—which commands premium pricing and customer loyalty across generations.
Market Cap
$48.7B
Revenue TTM
$7.8B
Net Income TTM
$919M
Net Margin
11.7%
RL Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
100%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
100%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+11.4%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$2.27/$2.04
Revenue
$1.7B/$1.6B
Q3 2025
EPS
$3.77/$3.51
Revenue
$1.7B/$1.7B
Q4 2025
EPS
$3.79/$3.45
Revenue
$2.0B/$1.9B
Q1 2026
EPS
$6.22/$5.80
Revenue
$2.4B/$2.3B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $2.27/$2.04 | +11.3% | $1.7B/$1.6B | +3.0% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.77/$3.51 | +7.4% | $1.7B/$1.7B | +3.6% |
| Q4 2025 | $3.79/$3.45 | +9.9% | $2.0B/$1.9B | +6.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $6.22/$5.80 | +7.2% | $2.4B/$2.3B | +4.1% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$8.2B
+4.1% YoY
FY2
$8.6B
+5.6% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$10.56
-28.2% YoY
FY2
$11.19
+5.9% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$695M
FCF Margin: 8.9%
Next Earnings
May 21, 2026
Expected EPS
$2.46
Expected Revenue
$1.8B
RL beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
RL Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $7.1B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Americas
45.4%
+3.0% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Americas is the largest reported region at 45.4%, up 3.0% YoY.
RL Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Overvalued
Fair value est. $214 — implies -41.0% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
41.0%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
RL
31.0x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
+23% premium
vs Consumer Cyclical Trailing P/E
RL
31.0x
vs
Consumer Cyclical
19.3x
+61% premium
vs RL 5Y Avg P/E
Today
31.0x
vs
5Y Average
16.8x
+85% premium
Forward PE
22.1x
S&P 500
19.1x
+16%
Consumer Cyclical
15.1x
+46%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
31.0x
S&P 500
25.1x
+23%
Consumer Cyclical
19.3x
+61%
5Y Avg
16.8x
+85%
PEG Ratio
1.68x
S&P 500
1.72x
-2%
Consumer Cyclical
0.91x
+85%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
43.0x
S&P 500
15.2x
+182%
Consumer Cyclical
11.3x
+279%
5Y Avg
19.0x
+126%
Price/FCF
47.8x
S&P 500
21.1x
+127%
Consumer Cyclical
14.6x
+227%
5Y Avg
23.4x
+104%
Price/Sales
6.9x
S&P 500
3.1x
+120%
Consumer Cyclical
0.7x
+863%
5Y Avg
1.7x
+307%
Dividend Yield
0.87%
S&P 500
1.87%
-53%
Consumer Cyclical
2.23%
-61%
5Y Avg
1.57%
-44%
| Metric | RL | S&P 500 | Consumer Cyclical | 5Y Avg RL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 22.1x | 19.1x+16% | 15.1x+46% | — |
| Trailing PE | 31.0x | 25.1x+23% | 19.3x+61% | 16.8x+85% |
| PEG Ratio | 1.68x | 1.72x | 0.91x+85% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 43.0x | 15.2x+182% | 11.3x+279% | 19.0x+126% |
| Price/FCF | 47.8x | 21.1x+127% | 14.6x+227% | 23.4x+104% |
| Price/Sales | 6.9x | 3.1x+120% | 0.7x+863% | 1.7x+307% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.87% | 1.87% | 2.23% | 1.57% |
RL trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 5 of 6 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolRL Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
RL generates $695M in free cash flow at a 8.9% margin — 20.6% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 1.9% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$7.8B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+12.7%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
69.6%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
15.0%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
11.7%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$14.72
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$695M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
8.9%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
20.6%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
11.8%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$1.9B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$746M
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
1.1× FCF
~1.1 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
31.8%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
1.9%
Dividend
0.9%
Buyback
1.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$481M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$3.14
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
27.1%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
135M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageRL Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Macroeconomic Headwinds
Ralph Lauren’s sales are highly sensitive to broader economic conditions such as inflation, rising interest rates, and shifts in discretionary consumer spending, especially in its key North American and European markets. Tariff and trade policy changes could further increase costs and squeeze profitability.
High Risk
Geopolitical & Trade Dynamics
Evolving international trade relationships and geopolitical uncertainties can disrupt supply chains, raise costs, and alter consumer behavior, potentially impacting product availability and margins.
Medium
Consumer Price Sensitivity & Demand
The company’s ability to sustain premium pricing while managing consumer elasticity is a key concern. A more promotional environment in the U.S. and Europe could pressure sales volumes and compress margins.
Medium
Supply Chain & Production Risks
Disruptions from natural disasters, human‑caused events, or geopolitical instability, coupled with concentration of production and commodity price volatility, threaten the company’s ability to meet delivery requirements.
Medium
International Operations & Currency Fluctuations
As Ralph Lauren expands globally, it faces exposure to foreign currency exchange rate fluctuations. While hedging strategies are in place, unforeseen currency movements can adversely affect financial results.
Medium
Brand Relevance & Competition
Maintaining relevance among younger demographics is challenging for a heritage brand, and intense competition from other premium and fast‑fashion brands requires continuous strategic adaptation.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why RL Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Robust Financial Performance
Ralph Lauren posted a 12% revenue increase on a reported basis and 10% in constant currency in Q3 Fiscal 2026, surpassing market expectations. Earnings per diluted share rose 25% year‑over‑year on a reported basis, while net income climbed 30% and operating income grew 29% YoY.
Brand Strength and Global Reach
With 50 years of heritage, the Polo brand remains globally iconic, enabling Ralph Lauren to serve a broad customer base across multiple price points. The company’s worldwide presence fuels consistent demand and brand equity.
Strategic Growth Initiatives
Investments in marketing and AI, such as the “Ask Ralph” shopping feature, have delivered healthy returns and expanded operating margins in North America and Asia. These initiatives enhance consumer experience and internal operations.
Margin Expansion and Profitability
Gross margins are in the high 60s, driven by a favorable channel mix and higher average selling prices. Operating margins have improved, particularly in North America and Asia, reflecting efficient cost management.
Shareholder Returns and Financial Health
Ralph Lauren maintains a strong balance sheet with substantial cash and short‑term investments. The company returns capital through dividends and share repurchases while focusing on reinvesting profits for growth.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
RL Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$360.02
52W Range Position
79%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$231.86
+55.3% from the low
52-Week High
$393.41
-8.5% from the high
1 Month
+0.40%
3 Month
+6.31%
YTD
-0.7%
1 Year
+51.4%
3Y CAGR
+46.8%
5Y CAGR
+21.7%
10Y CAGR
+14.7%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
RL vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
22.1x
vs 13.3x median
+66% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+4.1%
vs -5.6% median
+173% above peer median
Net Margin
11.7%
vs 5.3% median
+120% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RL RL Ralph Lauren Corporation | $48.7B | 22.1x | +4.1% | 11.7% | Buy | +19.1% |
PVH PVH PVH Corp. | $4.0B | 8.1x | -2.7% | 5.3% | Buy | +13.2% |
HBI HBI Hanesbrands Inc. | $2.3B | 9.8x | -8.3% | 9.6% | Buy | +12.1% |
VFC VFC V.F. Corporation | $7.2B | 22.2x | -5.6% | 2.3% | Hold | +10.6% |
TPR TPR Tapestry, Inc. | $28.7B | 21.7x | +4.3% | 7.0% | Buy | +14.8% |
CPR CPRI Capri Holdings Limited | $2.2B | 13.3x | -6.3% | -13.6% | Hold | +36.2% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
RL Dividend and Capital Return
RL returns 1.9% annually — 0.87% through dividends and 1.0% through buybacks.
Dividend SustainableFCF Adequate
Total Shareholder Yield
1.9%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
1.0%
Dividend Yield
0.87%
Payout Ratio
27.1%
How RL Splits Its Return
Div 0.87%
Buyback 1.0%
Dividend 0.87%Buybacks 1.0%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$3.14
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
5Y
3Y Div CAGR
6.6%
5Y Div CAGR
39.0%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$481M
Estimated Shares Retired
1M
Approx. Share Reduction
1.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
135M
At 1.0%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.91 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $3.56 | +10.5% | 3.5% | 4.9% |
| 2024 | $3.22 | +7.5% | 3.6% | 5.2% |
| 2023 | $3.00 | +2.1% | 6.1% | 8.5% |
| 2022 | $2.94 | +42.4% | 5.9% | 7.7% |
FAQ
7 questionsRL Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Ralph Lauren Corporation (RL) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Ralph Lauren Corporation (RL) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 48 analysts covering the stock, 32 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 13 rate it Hold, and 3 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $429, implying +19.1% from the current price of $360. The bear case scenario is $4 and the bull case is $362.
02What is the RL stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for RL is $429 based on 48 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $477 (+32.5% from today), and the low-end target is $400 (+11.1%). The base case model target is $347.
03Is Ralph Lauren Corporation (RL) stock overvalued in 2026?
RL trades at 22.1x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly overvalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Ralph Lauren Corporation (RL) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for RL in 2026 are: (1) Macroeconomic Headwinds — Ralph Lauren’s sales are highly sensitive to broader economic conditions such as inflation, rising interest rates, and shifts in discretionary consumer spending, especially in its key North American and European markets. (2) Geopolitical & Trade Dynamics — Evolving international trade relationships and geopolitical uncertainties can disrupt supply chains, raise costs, and alter consumer behavior, potentially impacting product availability and margins. (3) Consumer Price Sensitivity & Demand — The company’s ability to sustain premium pricing while managing consumer elasticity is a key concern. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Ralph Lauren Corporation's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates RL will report consensus revenue of $8.2B (+4.1% year-over-year) and EPS of $10.56 (-28.2% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $8.6B in revenue.
06When does Ralph Lauren Corporation (RL) report its next earnings?
Ralph Lauren Corporation is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-05-21. Consensus expects EPS of $2.46 and revenue of $1.8B. Over recent quarters, RL has beaten EPS estimates 100% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Ralph Lauren Corporation generate?
Ralph Lauren Corporation (RL) generated $695M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 8.9%. RL returns capital to shareholders through dividends (0.9% yield) and share repurchases ($481M TTM).