Upside case
Bull case
$592+43.4%
RL would need investors to value it at roughly 36x earnings — about 11x more generous than today's 25x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Ralph Lauren Corporation (RL) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
48
analysts
32 bullish · 3 bearish · 48 covering RL
Strong Buy
1
Buy
31
Hold
13
Sell
3
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$437
+5.9% vs today
Scenario Range
$283 – $592
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
48
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
25.3x
Forward P/E · Market cap $25.2B
RL price targets
Three scenarios for where RL stock could go
Current
~$413
Confidence
56 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $413
Bear
$283
Base
$450
Bull
$592
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$450+8.8%
This is close to how the market is already pricing RL — at roughly 28x forward earnings. No dramatic re-rating needed, just steady execution on the core business.
Stress case
Bear case
$283-31.4%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 8x multiple contraction could push RL down roughly 31% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Ralph Lauren Corporation
RL · NYSEConsumer CyclicalApparel - ManufacturersMarch year-end
Ralph Lauren is a global lifestyle brand that designs, markets, and distributes premium apparel, accessories, home goods, and fragrances. It generates revenue primarily through wholesale distribution to department stores and specialty retailers (~60% of sales) and direct-to-consumer channels including its own retail stores and e-commerce (~40%). The company's moat lies in its iconic brand equity—particularly the Polo Ralph Lauren label—which commands premium pricing and customer loyalty across generations.
Market Cap
$25.2B
Revenue TTM
$8.1B
Net Income TTM
$941M
Net Margin
11.6%
RL Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
100%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
100%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+9.0%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$3.77/$3.51
Revenue
$1.7B/$1.7B
Q4 2025
EPS
$3.79/$3.45
Revenue
$2.0B/$1.9B
Q1 2026
EPS
$6.22/$5.80
Revenue
$2.4B/$2.3B
Q2 2026
EPS
$2.80/$2.55
Revenue
$2.0B/$1.8B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $3.77/$3.51 | +7.4% | $1.7B/$1.7B | +3.6% |
| Q4 2025 | $3.79/$3.45 | +9.9% | $2.0B/$1.9B | +6.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $6.22/$5.80 | +7.2% | $2.4B/$2.3B | +4.1% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.80/$2.55 | +9.8% | $2.0B/$1.8B | +7.2% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$8.7B
+6.8% YoY
FY2
$8.9B
+3.2% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$15.95
+5.6% YoY
FY2
$16.81
+5.4% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$746M
FCF Margin: 9.2%
Next Earnings
August 6, 2026
Expected EPS
$4.26
Expected Revenue
$1.9B
RL beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
RL Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2026
Total disclosed revenue $8.1B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
North America Segment
41.0%
+9.2% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Americas
43.1%
+8.7% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
North America Segment is the largest disclosed segment at 41.0% of FY 2026 revenue, up 9.2% YoY.
Americas is the largest reported region at 43.1%, up 8.7% YoY.
RL Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Expensive versus peers
Fair value est. $322 — implies -22.0% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
22.0%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
RL
27.3x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
+12% premium
vs Consumer Cyclical Trailing P/E
RL
27.3x
vs
Consumer Cyclical
21.2x
+29% premium
vs RL 5Y Avg P/E
Today
27.3x
vs
5Y Average
17.8x
+54% premium
Forward PE
25.3x
S&P 500
18.8x
+34%
Consumer Cyclical
16.3x
+55%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
27.3x
S&P 500
24.4x
+12%
Consumer Cyclical
21.2x
+29%
5Y Avg
17.8x
+54%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.66x
—
Consumer Cyclical
0.92x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
22.2x
S&P 500
15.2x
+46%
Consumer Cyclical
12.2x
+83%
5Y Avg
13.3x
+67%
Price/FCF
33.8x
S&P 500
20.7x
+63%
Consumer Cyclical
15.6x
+117%
5Y Avg
22.3x
+51%
Price/Sales
3.1x
S&P 500
3.1x
+0%
Consumer Cyclical
0.7x
+345%
5Y Avg
1.8x
+74%
Dividend Yield
0.84%
S&P 500
1.91%
-56%
Consumer Cyclical
2.17%
-61%
5Y Avg
1.67%
-50%
| Metric | RL | S&P 500 | Consumer Cyclical | 5Y Avg RL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 25.3x | 18.8x+34% | 16.3x+55% | — |
| Trailing PE | 27.3x | 24.4x+12% | 21.2x+29% | 17.8x+54% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.66x | 0.92x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 22.2x | 15.2x+46% | 12.2x+83% | 13.3x+67% |
| Price/FCF | 33.8x | 20.7x+63% | 15.6x+117% | 22.3x+51% |
| Price/Sales | 3.1x | 3.1x | 0.7x+345% | 1.8x+74% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.84% | 1.91% | 2.17% | 1.67% |
RL trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 4 of 5 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolRL Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
RL generates $746M in free cash flow at a 9.2% margin — 24.7% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 3.3% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$8.1B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+14.6%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
69.9%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
14.5%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
11.6%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$15.11
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$746M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
9.2%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
24.7%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
12.8%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$2.0B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$1.0B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
1.3× FCF
~1.3 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
34.8%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
3.3%
Dividend
0.8%
Buyback
2.5%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$624M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$3.48
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
23.0%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
61M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageRL Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
High Risk
Sector-wide sentiment risk
Internal disagreements at a leading athleisure company concerning CEO appointment have caused uncertainty in the retail sector, impacting sentiment across companies like Ralph Lauren.
High Risk
Tariff risks
Ralph Lauren faces 20% tariff risks in the US and China, which could pressure margins despite recent revenue growth.
Medium
DTC channel execution
Investors are closely monitoring Ralph Lauren's direct-to-consumer channel expansion, particularly digital and experiential retail, as central to long-term growth.
Lower
Market volatility
The stock experienced a significant bearish movement, down 3.8%, reflecting broader market volatility in the retail sector.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why RL Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Strong brand engagement
Alternative data points to sustained consumer demand and strong brand engagement, positioning RL to outperform consensus expectations.
Premium brand acceleration
Thesis emphasizes premium brand acceleration at Ralph Lauren, supported by alternative data-driven demand momentum.
Robust DTC growth
Global DTC comparable-store sales grew by 17%, with exceptionally strong performance in Asia and China/Lunar New Year demand.
Asia revenue expansion
Asia revenue grew by 31%, highlighting strong regional demand and growth potential.
Full-price selling strength
Management noted stronger full-price selling, indicating pricing power and brand heat.
Free shipping incentives
Free shipping with an RL account and free returns enhance customer acquisition and retention.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
RL Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$413.01
52W Range Position
95%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$259.30
+59.3% from the low
52-Week High
$421.60
-2.0% from the high
1 Month
+26.74%
3 Month
+20.90%
YTD
+13.9%
1 Year
+54.2%
3Y CAGR
+49.6%
5Y CAGR
+29.5%
10Y CAGR
+15.7%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
RL vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
25.3x
vs 14.5x median
+75% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+6.8%
vs -0.4% median
+1805% above peer median
Net Margin
11.6%
vs 3.9% median
+194% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RL RL Ralph Lauren Corporation | $25.2B | 25.3x | +6.8% | 11.6% | Buy | +5.9% |
PVH PVH PVH Corp. | $3.6B | 7.1x | +3.3% | 0.2% | Buy | +19.4% |
HBI HBI Hanesbrands Inc. | $2.3B | 9.8x | -1.6% | 9.6% | Buy | +12.1% |
VFC VFC V.F. Corporation | $6.8B | 21.0x | -0.4% | 2.7% | Hold | +18.3% |
TPR TPR Tapestry, Inc. | $29.0B | 20.6x | +4.7% | 8.4% | Buy | +18.5% |
CPR CPRI Capri Holdings Limited | $2.3B | 14.5x | -1.5% | 3.9% | Hold | +14.6% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
RL Dividend and Capital Return
RL returns capital mainly through $624M/year in buybacks (2.5% buyback yield), with a modest 0.84% dividend — combining for 3.3% total shareholder yield. The dividend has grown for 5 consecutive years.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
3.3%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
2.5%
Dividend Yield
0.84%
Payout Ratio
23.0%
How RL Splits Its Return
Div 0.84%
Buyback 2.5%
Dividend 0.84%Buybacks 2.5%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$3.48
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
5Y
3Y Div CAGR
6.6%
5Y Div CAGR
39.0%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Semi-Annual
5 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$624M
Estimated Shares Retired
2M
Approx. Share Reduction
2.5%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
61M
At 2.5%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $1.91 | — | 3.1% | 4.1% |
| 2025 | $3.56 | +10.5% | 3.5% | 4.9% |
| 2024 | $3.22 | +7.5% | 3.6% | 5.2% |
| 2023 | $3.00 | +2.1% | 6.1% | 8.5% |
| 2022 | $2.94 | +42.4% | 5.9% | 7.7% |
FAQ
7 questionsRL Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Ralph Lauren Corporation (RL) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Ralph Lauren Corporation (RL) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 48 analysts covering the stock, 32 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 13 rate it Hold, and 3 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $437, implying +5.9% from the current price of $413. The bear case scenario is $283 and the bull case is $592.
02What is the RL stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for RL is $437 based on 48 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $511 (+23.7% from today), and the low-end target is $405 (-1.9%). The base case model target is $450.
03Is Ralph Lauren Corporation (RL) stock overvalued in 2026?
RL trades at 25.3x times forward earnings. The stock's valuation is broadly in line with the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals expensive versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Ralph Lauren Corporation (RL) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for RL in 2026 are: (1) Sector-wide sentiment risk — Internal disagreements at a leading athleisure company concerning CEO appointment have caused uncertainty in the retail sector, impacting sentiment across companies like Ralph Lauren. (2) Tariff risks — Ralph Lauren faces 20% tariff risks in the US and China, which could pressure margins despite recent revenue growth. (3) DTC channel execution — Investors are closely monitoring Ralph Lauren's direct-to-consumer channel expansion, particularly digital and experiential retail, as central to long-term growth. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Ralph Lauren Corporation's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates RL will report consensus revenue of $8.7B (+6.8% year-over-year) and EPS of $15.95 (+5.6% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $8.9B in revenue.
06When does Ralph Lauren Corporation (RL) report its next earnings?
Ralph Lauren Corporation is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-08-06. Consensus expects EPS of $4.26 and revenue of $1.9B. Over recent quarters, RL has beaten EPS estimates 100% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Ralph Lauren Corporation generate?
Ralph Lauren Corporation (RL) generated $746M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 9.2%. RL returns capital to shareholders through dividends (0.8% yield) and share repurchases ($624M TTM).