Upside case
Bull case
—
The bull case requires both strong earnings delivery and the market pricing RVMD more generously than it does today.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Revolution Medicines, Inc. (RVMD) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
22
analysts
21 bullish · 0 bearish · 22 covering RVMD
Strong Buy
1
Buy
20
Hold
1
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$166
+1.7% vs today
Scenario Range
— – —
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
22
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
—
Forward P/E · Market cap $34.7B
RVMD price targets
Three scenarios for where RVMD stock could go
Current
~$163
Confidence
48 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
—
The base case reflects analyst consensus expectations — steady delivery without requiring a major catalyst or re-rating.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Revolution Medicines, Inc.
RVMD · NASDAQHealthcareBiotechnologyDecember year-end
Revolution Medicines is a clinical-stage biotechnology company developing precision oncology therapies targeting RAS-addicted cancers. It generates revenue primarily through research collaborations and milestone payments — notably from its partnership with Sanofi on SHP2 inhibitors — while advancing its pipeline toward potential future drug sales. The company's competitive advantage lies in its deep expertise in RAS biology and its portfolio of novel inhibitors targeting multiple RAS pathway vulnerabilities that have historically been difficult to drug.
Market Cap
$34.7B
Revenue TTM
$0
Net Income TTM
-$1.4B
RVMD Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
17%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
67%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
-12.7%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 0 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$-1.31/$-0.94
Revenue
—/$28M
Q4 2025
EPS
$-1.61/$-1.42
Revenue
—/$2M
Q1 2026
EPS
$-1.86/$-1.58
Revenue
—/$4M
Q2 2026
EPS
$-2.29/$-1.84
Revenue
—/$2M
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $-1.31/$-0.94 | -39.4% | —/$28M | — |
| Q4 2025 | $-1.61/$-1.42 | -13.4% | —/$2M | — |
| Q1 2026 | $-1.86/$-1.58 | -17.7% | —/$4M | — |
| Q2 2026 | $-2.29/$-1.84 | -24.5% | —/$2M | — |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$12M
0.0% YoY
FY2
$12M
+2.4% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$-0.01
+99.8% YoY
FY2
$-0.01
+4.8% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)-$1.1B
Next Earnings
August 5, 2026
Expected EPS
$-1.96
Expected Revenue
$18M
RVMD beat EPS estimates in 0 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
RVMD Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2022
Total disclosed revenue $35M
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Collaboration Revenue Member
100.0%
+20.4% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Collaboration Revenue Member is the largest disclosed segment at 100.0% of FY 2022 revenue, up 20.4% YoY.
RVMD Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Relative Valuation
Benchmark comparison across market, sector, and history below.
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
RVMD
-27.4x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
212% discount
vs Healthcare Trailing P/E
RVMD
-27.4x
vs
Healthcare
22.1x
224% discount
vs RVMD 5Y Avg P/E
Today
-27.4x
vs
5Y Average
—
Benchmark unavailable
Forward PE
—
S&P 500
18.8x
—
Healthcare
18.3x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
-27.4x
S&P 500
24.4x
-212%
Healthcare
22.1x
-224%
5Y Avg
—
—
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.66x
—
Healthcare
1.59x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
—
S&P 500
15.2x
—
Healthcare
14.2x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
Price/FCF
—
S&P 500
20.7x
—
Healthcare
18.5x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
Price/Sales
—
S&P 500
3.1x
—
Healthcare
2.6x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.91%
—
Healthcare
1.50%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | RVMD | S&P 500 | Healthcare | 5Y Avg RVMD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | — | 18.8x | 18.3x | — |
| Trailing PE | -27.4x | 24.4x-212% | 22.1x-224% | — |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.66x | 1.59x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | — | 15.2x | 14.2x | — |
| Price/FCF | — | 20.7x | 18.5x | — |
| Price/Sales | — | 3.1x | 2.6x | — |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.91% | 1.50% | — |
RVMD trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 0 of 1 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolRVMD Financial Health
Verdict
Stressed
Key financial metrics for RVMD are shown below.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$0
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
—
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
—
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
—
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
—
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$-6.92
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
-$1.1B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
—
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
-54.3%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
-59.1%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$384M
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$225M
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
Net cash ✓
ROE *
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
-83.2%
* Elevated by buyback-compressed equity — compare ROIC (-54.3%) for an undistorted picture of capital efficiency.
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.0%
Dividend
—
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
213M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt). ROE marked * where buyback-compressed equity base may inflate the figure.
Open full ratios pageRVMD Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
High Risk
Clinical Trial Volatility
The biotechnology sector's high-stakes nature means clinical failures can lead to significant stock price declines, as seen with Revolution Medicines' 20% drop after a failed negotiation.
High Risk
Financial Losses
Revolution Medicines reported widening quarterly and annual losses, with a net loss of US$364.89 million for Q4 and US$1.13 billion for 2025, indicating financial instability.
Medium
Market Expectations
The market has high hopes for Revolution Medicines, but there is uncertainty whether the company can meet these expectations, creating potential downside risk.
Medium
Sector Volatility
The biotech sector is prone to dramatic swings, where even a single negative event can erase significant market value, as evidenced by Revolution Medicines' recent performance.
Lower
Political Analogies
Historical references to revolutions, while not directly related, may indirectly highlight the disruptive and uncertain nature of the biotech industry.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why RVMD Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Pivotal clinical studies
Revolution Medicines plans to initiate pivotal combination studies in 2026 with zoldonrasib or elironrasib, with clinical data expected in 2025.
Strong stock performance
The stock has surged 97% year-to-date, indicating strong investor confidence in the company's potential.
Upcoming clinical data
Clinical data supporting the 2026 pivotal studies is anticipated in Q2 or Q3 2025, which could serve as a catalyst.
Investor relations focus
The company maintains a dedicated Investor Relations website, signaling transparency and engagement with stakeholders.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
RVMD Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$162.99
52W Range Position
97%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$34.00
+379.4% from the low
52-Week High
$166.50
-2.1% from the high
1 Month
+12.90%
3 Month
+66.13%
YTD
+106.3%
1 Year
+308.2%
3Y CAGR
+85.1%
5Y CAGR
+36.8%
10Y CAGR
+18.9%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
RVMD vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
—
vs — median
Peer median unavailable
Revenue Growth
0.0%
vs +33.7% median
-100% below peer median
Net Margin
—
vs -211.2% median
Peer median unavailable
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RVM RVMD Revolution Medicines, Inc. | $34.7B | — | 0.0% | — | Buy | +1.7% |
MRS MRSN Mersana Therapeutics, Inc. | $145M | — | +35.0% | -211.2% | Buy | -65.6% |
ARV ARVN Arvinas, Inc. | $495M | — | +32.6% | -247.5% | Buy | +92.3% |
BDT BDTX Black Diamond Therapeutics, Inc. | $95M | — | +8.1% | — | Buy | +381.9% |
TNG TNGX Tango Therapeutics, Inc. | $3.2B | — | +34.9% | -188.2% | Buy | +52.7% |
NUV NUVL Nuvalent, Inc. | $9.1B | — | — | — | Hold | +7.5% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
FAQ
7 questionsRVMD Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Revolution Medicines, Inc. (RVMD) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Revolution Medicines, Inc. (RVMD) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 22 analysts covering the stock, 21 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 1 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $166, implying +1.7% from the current price of $163.
02What is the RVMD stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for RVMD is $166 based on 22 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $205 (+25.8% from today), and the low-end target is $73 (-55.2%).
03Is Revolution Medicines, Inc. (RVMD) stock overvalued in 2026?
Forward earnings data for RVMD is not currently available. Review the valuation table above for trailing P/E, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales comparisons against market and sector benchmarks.
04What are the main risks for Revolution Medicines, Inc. (RVMD) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for RVMD in 2026 are: (1) Clinical Trial Volatility — The biotechnology sector's high-stakes nature means clinical failures can lead to significant stock price declines, as seen with Revolution Medicines' 20% drop after a failed negotiation. (2) Financial Losses — Revolution Medicines reported widening quarterly and annual losses, with a net loss of US$364. (3) Market Expectations — The market has high hopes for Revolution Medicines, but there is uncertainty whether the company can meet these expectations, creating potential downside risk. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Revolution Medicines, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates RVMD will report consensus revenue of $12M (0.0% year-over-year) and EPS of $-0.01 (+99.8% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $12M in revenue.
06When does Revolution Medicines, Inc. (RVMD) report its next earnings?
Revolution Medicines, Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-08-05. Consensus expects EPS of $-1.96 and revenue of $18M. Over recent quarters, RVMD has beaten EPS estimates 17% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Revolution Medicines, Inc. generate?
Revolution Medicines, Inc. (RVMD) had a free cash outflow of $1.1B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months. RVMD returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($0 TTM).