Upside case
Bull case
—
The bull case requires both strong earnings delivery and the market pricing RVMD more generously than it does today.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Revolution Medicines, Inc. (RVMD) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
22
analysts
21 bullish · 0 bearish · 22 covering RVMD
Strong Buy
1
Buy
20
Hold
1
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$155
+2.5% vs today
Scenario Range
— – —
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
22
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
—
Forward P/E · Market cap $29.8B
RVMD price targets
Three scenarios for where RVMD stock could go
Current
~$151
Confidence
—
Updated
May 1, 2026
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
—
The base case reflects analyst consensus expectations — steady delivery without requiring a major catalyst or re-rating.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Revolution Medicines, Inc.
RVMD · NASDAQHealthcareBiotechnology
Revolution Medicines is a clinical-stage biotechnology company developing precision oncology therapies targeting RAS-addicted cancers. It generates revenue primarily through research collaborations and milestone payments — notably from its partnership with Sanofi on SHP2 inhibitors — while advancing its pipeline toward potential future drug sales. The company's competitive advantage lies in its deep expertise in RAS biology and its portfolio of novel inhibitors targeting multiple RAS pathway vulnerabilities that have historically been difficult to drug.
Market Cap
$29.8B
Revenue TTM
$0
Net Income TTM
-$1.1B
RVMD Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
25%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
-9.5%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 0 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$-1.13/$-1.12
Revenue
—/—
Q3 2025
EPS
$-1.31/$-0.94
Revenue
—/$28M
Q4 2025
EPS
$-1.61/$-1.42
Revenue
—/$2M
Q1 2026
EPS
$-1.86/$-1.58
Revenue
—/$4M
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $-1.13/$-1.12 | -0.9% | —/— | — |
| Q3 2025 | $-1.31/$-0.94 | -39.4% | —/$28M | — |
| Q4 2025 | $-1.61/$-1.42 | -13.4% | —/$2M | — |
| Q1 2026 | $-1.86/$-1.58 | -17.7% | —/$4M | — |
Next Earnings
May 6, 2026
Expected EPS
$-1.83
Expected Revenue
$3M
RVMD beat EPS estimates in 0 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
RVMD Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2022
Total disclosed revenue $35M
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Collaboration Revenue Member
100.0%
+20.4% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Collaboration Revenue Member is the largest disclosed segment at 100.0% of FY 2022 revenue, up 20.4% YoY.
RVMD Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Relative Valuation
Benchmark comparison across market, sector, and history below.
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
RVMD
-25.4x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
201% discount
vs Healthcare Trailing P/E
RVMD
-25.4x
vs
Healthcare
22.2x
215% discount
vs RVMD 5Y Avg P/E
Today
-25.4x
vs
5Y Average
—
Benchmark unavailable
Forward PE
—
S&P 500
19.1x
—
Healthcare
19.0x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
-25.4x
S&P 500
25.2x
-201%
Healthcare
22.2x
-215%
5Y Avg
—
—
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.74x
—
Healthcare
1.52x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
—
S&P 500
15.2x
—
Healthcare
14.1x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
Price/FCF
—
S&P 500
21.3x
—
Healthcare
18.6x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
Price/Sales
—
S&P 500
3.1x
—
Healthcare
2.8x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.87%
—
Healthcare
1.40%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | RVMD | S&P 500 | Healthcare | 5Y Avg RVMD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | — | 19.1x | 19.0x | — |
| Trailing PE | -25.4x | 25.2x-201% | 22.2x-215% | — |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.74x | 1.52x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | — | 15.2x | 14.1x | — |
| Price/FCF | — | 21.3x | 18.6x | — |
| Price/Sales | — | 3.1x | 2.8x | — |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.87% | 1.40% | — |
RVMD trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 0 of 1 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolRVMD Financial Health
Verdict
Stressed
Key financial metrics for RVMD are shown below.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$0
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
—
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
—
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
—
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
—
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$-5.95
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
-$914M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
—
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
-54.3%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
-48.0%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$384M
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$225M
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
Net cash ✓
ROE *
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
-69.3%
* Elevated by buyback-compressed equity — compare ROIC (-54.3%) for an undistorted picture of capital efficiency.
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.0%
Dividend
—
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$8M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
190M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt). ROE marked * where buyback-compressed equity base may inflate the figure.
Open full ratios pageRVMD Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Clinical Trial Uncertainty
RVMD's success is heavily dependent on the outcomes of its clinical trials, particularly the ongoing RASolute-302 study for daraxonrasib. There is no assurance that positive results from earlier testing will be replicated, which poses a significant risk to its drug development pipeline.
High Risk
Financing and Dilution
The company has a high cash burn rate, necessitating ongoing financing to support operations. Recent large equity and convertible note offerings have raised substantial capital but also introduce dilution concerns for existing shareholders and potential future dilution if the notes convert.
High Risk
Patent Infringement Claims
RVMD has accused rival Erasca of patent infringement and trade secret theft, introducing legal uncertainty and potential future costs. This dispute could lead to a lengthy and expensive legal battle, impacting the company's financial stability.
Medium
Operating Expenses
Investors are increasingly sensitive to RVMD's rising operating expenses, which can adversely affect profitability and cash flow. The trajectory of these expenses may raise concerns about the company's ability to manage its financial health.
Medium
Market Competition
RVMD operates in a competitive oncology market, where the success of its targeted therapies must be evaluated against numerous alternatives. Increased competition could hinder the market acceptance and sales of its drug candidates.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why RVMD Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
RAS Oncology Focus
Revolution Medicines is developing novel targeted therapies for RAS-addicted cancers, a significant area of unmet medical need. The company has eight Phase III programs and multiple FDA designations, which could lead to substantial future revenue and earnings.
Pipeline Advancements
The company's lead asset, daraxonrasib, has shown positive Phase 3 data in metastatic pancreatic cancer, demonstrating significant improvements in overall survival compared to chemotherapy. This drug is expected to be submitted for FDA approval, potentially leading to a launch in the second half of 2026.
Market Potential
Analysts estimate that Revolution Medicines' therapies could capture a significant portion of the RAS-driven cancer market, with projections of billions in US revenue by 2035. The company's first-mover advantage in pancreatic cancer could allow it to secure a substantial market share.
Financial Strength and Partnerships
Revolution Medicines has a strong financial position with substantial cash reserves, including $2.03 billion in cash and marketable securities as of September 30, 2025. The company also has a partnership with Royalty Pharma, providing additional committed capital.
Acquisition Potential
There is reported interest from major pharmaceutical companies in acquiring Revolution Medicines, with rumored bids in the range of $28 to $32 billion. This potential M&A activity adds another layer of upside optionality for investors.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
RVMD Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$151.07
52W Range Position
96%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$34.00
+344.3% from the low
52-Week High
$155.70
-3.0% from the high
1 Month
+58.24%
3 Month
+54.96%
YTD
+91.2%
1 Year
+303.5%
3Y CAGR
+83.5%
5Y CAGR
+39.1%
10Y CAGR
+18.0%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
RVMD vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
—
vs — median
Peer median unavailable
Revenue Growth
—
vs +0.1% median
Peer median unavailable
Net Margin
—
vs -96.8% median
Peer median unavailable
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RVM RVMD Revolution Medicines, Inc. | $29.8B | — | — | — | Buy | +2.5% |
MRS MRSN Mersana Therapeutics, Inc. | $145M | — | +49.8% | -211.2% | Buy | -65.6% |
ARV ARVN Arvinas, Inc. | $656M | — | -14.2% | -30.8% | Buy | +26.7% |
BDT BDTX Black Diamond Therapeutics, Inc. | $161M | — | — | 30.7% | Buy | +183.7% |
TNG TNGX Tango Therapeutics, Inc. | $3.2B | — | +0.1% | -162.9% | Buy | -3.7% |
NUV NUVL Nuvalent, Inc. | $6.9B | — | — | — | Buy | +38.5% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
RVMD Dividend and Capital Return
RVMD does not currently return meaningful capital to shareholders.
Dividend UnknownFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
0.0%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.0%
Dividend Yield
—
Payout Ratio
—
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.00
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
—
5Y Div CAGR
—
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
—
0 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$8M
Estimated Shares Retired
53.2K
Approx. Share Reduction
0.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
190M
FAQ
6 questionsRVMD Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Revolution Medicines, Inc. (RVMD) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Revolution Medicines, Inc. (RVMD) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 22 analysts covering the stock, 21 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 1 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $155, implying +2.5% from the current price of $151.
02What is the RVMD stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for RVMD is $155 based on 22 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $200 (+32.4% from today), and the low-end target is $73 (-51.7%).
03Is Revolution Medicines, Inc. (RVMD) stock overvalued in 2026?
Forward earnings data for RVMD is not currently available. Review the valuation table above for trailing P/E, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales comparisons against market and sector benchmarks.
04What are the main risks for Revolution Medicines, Inc. (RVMD) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for RVMD in 2026 are: (1) Clinical Trial Uncertainty — RVMD's success is heavily dependent on the outcomes of its clinical trials, particularly the ongoing RASolute-302 study for daraxonrasib. (2) Financing and Dilution — The company has a high cash burn rate, necessitating ongoing financing to support operations. (3) Patent Infringement Claims — RVMD has accused rival Erasca of patent infringement and trade secret theft, introducing legal uncertainty and potential future costs. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05When does Revolution Medicines, Inc. (RVMD) report its next earnings?
Revolution Medicines, Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-05-06. Consensus expects EPS of $-1.83 and revenue of $3M. Over recent quarters, RVMD has beaten EPS estimates 25% of the time.
06How much free cash flow does Revolution Medicines, Inc. generate?
Revolution Medicines, Inc. (RVMD) had a free cash outflow of $914M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months. RVMD returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($8M TTM).