Upside case
Bull case
$284+261.5%
SGI would need investors to value it at roughly 88x earnings — about 63x more generous than today's 24x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Somnigroup International Inc (SGI) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
11
analysts
9 bullish · 0 bearish · 11 covering SGI
Strong Buy
1
Buy
8
Hold
2
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$102
+29.7% vs today
Scenario Range
$5 – $284
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
11
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
24.2x
Forward P/E · Market cap $16.5B
SGI price targets
Three scenarios for where SGI stock could go
Current
~$79
Confidence
47 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $79
Bear
$5
Base
$137
Bull
$284
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$137+74.7%
At 42x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$5-93.3%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 23x multiple contraction could push SGI down roughly 93% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Somnigroup International Inc
SGI · NYSEConsumer DefensiveHousehold & Personal ProductsDecember year-end
SomniGroup International is a sleep technology and wellness company that develops science-backed products to enhance sleep quality and overall well-being. It generates revenue primarily from direct-to-consumer sales of smart sleep devices — including sleep trackers, smart pillows, and sleep environment controllers — supplemented by subscription services for personalized sleep coaching and data analytics. The company's competitive advantage lies in its proprietary sleep algorithms and integrated ecosystem that combines hardware, software, and behavioral science to create a comprehensive sleep improvement platform.
Market Cap
$16.5B
Revenue TTM
$7.5B
Net Income TTM
$384M
Net Margin
5.1%
SGI Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
60%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
30%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
-3.4%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$0.49/$0.47
Revenue
$1.6B/$2.0B
Q3 2025
EPS
$0.53/$0.51
Revenue
$1.9B/$2.0B
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.95/$0.86
Revenue
$2.1B/$2.1B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.72/$0.72
Revenue
$1.9B/$1.9B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $0.49/$0.47 | +4.3% | $1.6B/$2.0B | -19.4% |
| Q3 2025 | $0.53/$0.51 | +3.9% | $1.9B/$2.0B | -7.7% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.95/$0.86 | +10.7% | $2.1B/$2.1B | +3.0% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.72/$0.72 | +0.1% | $1.9B/$1.9B | -3.2% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$9.5B
+27.0% YoY
FY2
$12.4B
+30.2% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$2.58
+43.1% YoY
FY2
$3.21
+24.5% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$633M
FCF Margin: 8.5%
Next Earnings
May 7, 2026
Expected EPS
$0.57
Expected Revenue
$1.8B
SGI beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
SGI Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Overvalued
Fair value est. $62 — implies -17.9% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
17.9%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
SGI
42.7x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
+69% premium
vs Consumer Defensive Trailing P/E
SGI
42.7x
vs
Consumer Defensive
19.6x
+118% premium
vs SGI 5Y Avg P/E
Today
42.7x
vs
5Y Average
25.6x
+67% premium
Forward PE
24.2x
S&P 500
19.1x
+27%
Consumer Defensive
14.6x
+66%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
42.7x
S&P 500
25.2x
+69%
Consumer Defensive
19.6x
+118%
5Y Avg
25.6x
+67%
PEG Ratio
18.35x
S&P 500
1.75x
+951%
Consumer Defensive
1.85x
+890%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
19.3x
S&P 500
15.3x
+26%
Consumer Defensive
11.4x
+69%
5Y Avg
15.8x
+22%
Price/FCF
26.1x
S&P 500
21.3x
+22%
Consumer Defensive
15.7x
+66%
5Y Avg
34.5x
-24%
Price/Sales
2.2x
S&P 500
3.1x
-30%
Consumer Defensive
0.8x
+161%
5Y Avg
1.9x
+15%
Dividend Yield
0.77%
S&P 500
1.88%
-59%
Consumer Defensive
2.73%
-72%
5Y Avg
0.85%
-9%
| Metric | SGI | S&P 500 | Consumer Defensive | 5Y Avg SGI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 24.2x | 19.1x+27% | 14.6x+66% | — |
| Trailing PE | 42.7x | 25.2x+69% | 19.6x+118% | 25.6x+67% |
| PEG Ratio | 18.35x | 1.75x+951% | 1.85x+890% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 19.3x | 15.3x+26% | 11.4x+69% | 15.8x+22% |
| Price/FCF | 26.1x | 21.3x+22% | 15.7x+66% | 34.5x-24% |
| Price/Sales | 2.2x | 3.1x-30% | 0.8x+161% | 1.9x+15% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.77% | 1.88% | 2.73% | 0.85% |
SGI trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 5 of 6 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolSGI Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
SGI generates $633M in free cash flow at a 8.5% margin — returns 1.6% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$7.5B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+51.6%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
42.8%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
10.2%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
5.1%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$1.80
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$633M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
8.5%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
9.1%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
3.3%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$135M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$8.1B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
12.8× FCF
~12.8 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
12.3%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
1.6%
Dividend
0.8%
Buyback
0.8%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$132M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$0.61
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
33.2%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
209M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageSGI Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Overvaluation and High Debt
SGI is considered significantly overvalued by analysts, with its stock price exceeding its estimated intrinsic worth. This situation is exacerbated by substantial debt from recent acquisitions, raising concerns about the company's financial trajectory and ability to deliver shareholder value.
High Risk
Profitability Pressures and Revenue Misses
The company has faced profitability pressures and missed revenue expectations in recent quarters, notably in Q4 2025, leading to a stock decline. Such financial performance issues could significantly impact investor confidence and stock valuation.
High Risk
Working Capital Deficiencies
SGI has negative working capital and a current ratio below 1, indicating that short-term assets may be insufficient to cover short-term liabilities. This financial strain could make the company vulnerable during operational hiccups or downturns in consumer demand.
Medium
Downturn in U.S. Bedding Industry
The U.S. bedding industry is experiencing a prolonged downturn, with market levels significantly below peak. As the largest bedding company globally, SGI is heavily impacted by this industry weakness, which could hinder revenue growth.
Medium
Uneven Consumer Demand
Demand for big-ticket consumer products like mattresses remains uneven, with the market less willing to support premium valuations without clearer signs of accelerating growth. This could lead to further revenue misses and stock volatility.
Medium
Execution Risk in Integrated Operations
SGI's combined approach to wholesale and direct-to-consumer models creates opportunities for margin expansion but also introduces execution risk as the company integrates operations at scale. Poor execution could lead to operational inefficiencies and reduced profitability.
Lower
Competition
SGI faces challenges from both luxury and low-cost rivals, struggling against these competitors due to a lack of a strong competitive advantage. This competitive landscape could pressure margins and market share.
Lower
External Events
SGI is exposed to risks from external events such as natural disasters, pandemics, or sudden regulatory changes. These unforeseen circumstances could disrupt operations and negatively impact financial performance.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why SGI Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Market Leadership and Brand Strength
SGI is the world's largest bedding company, boasting a portfolio of well-known brands like Tempur-Pedic, Sealy, and Stearns & Foster. This strong brand recognition and market dominance provide significant competitive advantages.
Successful Acquisitions and Integration
The acquisition of Mattress Firm has been successful, contributing to sales and creating opportunities for cost synergies. Additionally, SGI is pursuing the acquisition of Leggett & Platt, which is expected to lead to vertical integration and EBITDA accretion.
Innovation and Growth Potential
SGI's focus on innovation, particularly in sleep-tech initiatives, is expected to drive continued growth. A bull case scenario suggests a revenue CAGR of +5% to +6%, fueled by successful international expansion and accelerated direct-to-consumer adoption.
Strong Financial Performance
SGI has demonstrated robust financial health, with a 51.6% year-over-year revenue increase, reaching $7.5 billion. The company also shows strong returns on equity, indicating efficient capital utilization.
Positive Analyst Sentiment
The consensus among analysts is largely positive, with many issuing a 'Strong Buy' rating. Several analysts have set price targets significantly above the current stock price, reflecting confidence in SGI's growth trajectory.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
SGI Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$78.63
52W Range Position
53%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$56.15
+40.0% from the low
52-Week High
$98.56
-20.2% from the high
1 Month
+5.72%
3 Month
-18.37%
YTD
-11.4%
1 Year
+29.0%
3Y CAGR
+27.9%
5Y CAGR
+15.2%
10Y CAGR
+18.2%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
SGI vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
24.2x
vs 10.6x median
+130% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+27.0%
vs +0.8% median
+3098% above peer median
Net Margin
5.1%
vs -0.7% median
+858% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SGI SGI Somnigroup International Inc | $16.5B | 24.2x | +27.0% | 5.1% | Buy | +29.7% |
SNB SNBR Sleep Number Corporation | $69M | — | -7.5% | -9.4% | Hold | +233.3% |
PRP PRPL Purple Innovation, Inc. | $56M | — | +7.0% | -7.0% | — | — |
LEG LEG Leggett & Platt, Incorporated | $1.6B | 10.6x | -6.0% | 5.8% | Hold | +5.5% |
MLK MLKN MillerKnoll, Inc. | $1.1B | 8.8x | +1.5% | -0.7% | Hold | — |
SCS SCS Steelcase Inc. | $1.9B | 14.1x | +0.8% | 2.9% | Hold | — |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
SGI Dividend and Capital Return
SGI returns 1.6% annually — 0.77% through dividends and 0.8% through buybacks.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
1.6%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.8%
Dividend Yield
0.77%
Payout Ratio
33.2%
How SGI Splits Its Return
Div 0.77%
Buyback 0.8%
Dividend 0.77%Buybacks 0.8%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.61
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
5Y
3Y Div CAGR
14.5%
5Y Div CAGR
—
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$132M
Estimated Shares Retired
2M
Approx. Share Reduction
0.8%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
209M
At 0.8%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.17 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $0.60 | +15.4% | 0.7% | 1.4% |
| 2024 | $0.52 | +18.2% | 0.4% | 1.4% |
| 2023 | $0.44 | +10.0% | 0.4% | 1.3% |
| 2022 | $0.40 | +25.0% | 10.8% | 11.9% |
FAQ
7 questionsSGI Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Somnigroup International Inc (SGI) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Somnigroup International Inc (SGI) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 11 analysts covering the stock, 9 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 2 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $102, implying +29.7% from the current price of $79. The bear case scenario is $5 and the bull case is $284.
02What is the SGI stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for SGI is $102 based on 11 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $110 (+39.9% from today), and the low-end target is $90 (+14.5%). The base case model target is $137.
03Is Somnigroup International Inc (SGI) stock overvalued in 2026?
SGI trades at 24.2x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals overvalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Somnigroup International Inc (SGI) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for SGI in 2026 are: (1) Overvaluation and High Debt — SGI is considered significantly overvalued by analysts, with its stock price exceeding its estimated intrinsic worth. (2) Profitability Pressures and Revenue Misses — The company has faced profitability pressures and missed revenue expectations in recent quarters, notably in Q4 2025, leading to a stock decline. (3) Working Capital Deficiencies — SGI has negative working capital and a current ratio below 1, indicating that short-term assets may be insufficient to cover short-term liabilities. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Somnigroup International Inc's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates SGI will report consensus revenue of $9.5B (+27.0% year-over-year) and EPS of $2.58 (+43.1% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $12.4B in revenue.
06When does Somnigroup International Inc (SGI) report its next earnings?
Somnigroup International Inc is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-05-07. Consensus expects EPS of $0.57 and revenue of $1.8B. Over recent quarters, SGI has beaten EPS estimates 60% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Somnigroup International Inc generate?
Somnigroup International Inc (SGI) generated $633M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 8.5%. SGI returns capital to shareholders through dividends (0.8% yield) and share repurchases ($132M TTM).