Upside case
Bull case
$284+104.1%
SNEX would need investors to value it at roughly 46x earnings — about 24x more generous than today's 23x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
StoneX Group Inc. (SNEX) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
2
analysts
2 bullish · 0 bearish · 2 covering SNEX
Strong Buy
0
Buy
2
Hold
0
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
—
— vs today
Scenario Range
$136 – $284
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
2
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
22.6x
Forward P/E · Market cap $11.0B
SNEX price targets
Three scenarios for where SNEX stock could go
Current
~$139
Confidence
47 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $139
Bear
$136
Base
$215
Bull
$284
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$215+54.9%
At 35x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$136-2.4%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 1x multiple contraction could push SNEX down roughly 2% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
StoneX Group Inc.
SNEX · NASDAQFinancial ServicesFinancial - Capital MarketsSeptember year-end
StoneX Group is a global financial services firm that connects clients to markets through trading, clearing, and risk management solutions. It generates revenue primarily from its Commercial segment (risk management and physical trading), Institutional segment (equity and fixed income services), and Retail segment (trading solutions for individual investors). The company's competitive advantage lies in its integrated global network that provides end-to-end market access across multiple asset classes and geographies.
Market Cap
$11.0B
Revenue TTM
$152.3B
Net Income TTM
$462M
Net Margin
0.3%
SNEX Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
100%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+11.1%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$1.22/$1.39
Revenue
$34.8B/$923M
Q4 2025
EPS
$1.57/$1.45
Revenue
$32.7B/$1.0B
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.67/$1.37
Revenue
$1.4B/$1.2B
Q2 2026
EPS
$2.07/$1.60
Revenue
$1.6B/$1.4B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $1.22/$1.39 | -12.2% | $34.8B/$923M | +3673.0% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.57/$1.45 | +8.3% | $32.7B/$1.0B | +3058.8% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.67/$1.37 | +21.9% | $1.4B/$1.2B | +15.6% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.07/$1.60 | +29.4% | $1.6B/$1.4B | +14.6% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$176.7B
+16.0% YoY
FY2
$203.8B
+15.3% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$6.16
+8.5% YoY
FY2
$6.47
+5.1% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$7.9B
FCF Margin: 5.2%
Next Earnings
August 4, 2026
Expected EPS
$1.23
Expected Revenue
$1.3B
SNEX beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
SNEX Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $126.3B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Precious Metals Trading
96.4%
+33.5% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Middle East And Asia
91.4%
YoY unavailable
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Precious Metals Trading is the largest disclosed segment at 96.4% of FY 2025 revenue, up 33.5% YoY.
Middle East And Asia is the largest reported region at 91.4%, with no year-over-year comparison yet.
SNEX Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Expensive versus peers
Fair value est. $111 — implies -20.5% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
20.5%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
SNEX
35.4x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
+45% premium
vs Financial Services Trailing P/E
SNEX
35.4x
vs
Financial Services
13.6x
+160% premium
vs SNEX 5Y Avg P/E
Today
35.4x
vs
5Y Average
10.4x
+240% premium
Forward PE
22.6x
S&P 500
18.8x
+20%
Financial Services
10.7x
+111%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
35.4x
S&P 500
24.4x
+45%
Financial Services
13.6x
+160%
5Y Avg
10.4x
+240%
PEG Ratio
43.70x
S&P 500
1.66x
+2533%
Financial Services
0.95x
+4477%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
13.0x
S&P 500
15.2x
-15%
Financial Services
11.4x
+14%
5Y Avg
6.3x
+108%
Price/FCF
2.5x
S&P 500
20.7x
-88%
Financial Services
11.1x
-77%
5Y Avg
2.5x
+3%
Price/Sales
0.1x
S&P 500
3.1x
-97%
Financial Services
2.3x
-96%
5Y Avg
0.0x
+192%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.91%
—
Financial Services
2.63%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | SNEX | S&P 500 | Financial Services | 5Y Avg SNEX |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 22.6x | 18.8x+20% | 10.7x+111% | — |
| Trailing PE | 35.4x | 24.4x+45% | 13.6x+160% | 10.4x+240% |
| PEG Ratio | 43.70x | 1.66x+2533% | 0.95x+4477% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 13.0x | 15.2x-15% | 11.4x+14% | 6.3x+108% |
| Price/FCF | 2.5x | 20.7x-88% | 11.1x-77% | 2.5x |
| Price/Sales | 0.1x | 3.1x-97% | 2.3x-96% | 0.0x+192% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.91% | 2.63% | — |
SNEX trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 3 of 6 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolSNEX Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
SNEX generates 19.3% ROE and 1.0% return on assets — the two primary signals for banking profitability. FCF-based metrics are not applicable to financial companies.
Earnings Engine
Revenue, profitability, and return on capital
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$152.3B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
—
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
1.6%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
0.3%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$5.68
ROE
Return on equity — the primary profitability signal for banks
19.3%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
9.1%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
1.0%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$1.6B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$16.9B
FCF Analysis
Traditional FCF and debt/FCF ratios are not meaningful for financial companies. Focus on ROE and ROA above.
ROE
Return on equity — the headline bank profitability metric
19.3%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.0%
Dividend
—
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
79M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. For financial companies, ROE and ROA are the primary health signals — FCF-based metrics are not applicable.
Open full ratios pageSNEX Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
Based on the latest company results, valuation, and market data
High Risk
Middle East And Asia exposure
Middle East And Asia represents 91.4% of disclosed revenue. A sharper slowdown, policy change, or competitive shift in that market would hit the revenue base quickly and could pull expectations toward the lower end of the valuation range.
High Risk
Precious Metals Trading dependence
Precious Metals Trading contributes 96.4% of the disclosed revenue mix, with the latest annual change at 33.5%. If demand in the lead segment cools, the rest of the portfolio may not be large enough to fully offset the slowdown.
High Risk
Valuation de-rating
SNEX trades at 35.4x trailing earnings versus 24.4x for the S&P 500 and 13.6x for its sector. If earnings delivery or sentiment slips, the stock could re-rate lower and move closer to the bear case target of $136.
Medium
Estimate execution
The next fiscal year requires Street estimates of $176.7B in revenue (16.0% growth) and $6.16 in EPS. Missing those operating targets would undermine the premium multiple investors are paying today.
Lower
Capital return support
Part of the per-share support comes from capital returns, backed by $7.9B in trailing free cash flow, a 0.0% buyback yield. If cash generation softens, the EPS lift and downside cushion from repurchases can narrow.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why SNEX Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
Based on recent company results and analyst estimates
High-margin cash engine
StoneX Group Inc. already operates from a position of scale, with 2.3% gross margin, 1.6% operating margin, and $7.9B in trailing free cash flow. That combination gives management room to keep funding product investment without relying on outside capital.
Underwriting Fees still matters
Underwriting Fees accounts for 0.0% of disclosed revenue and the latest annual change was 2050.0%. When the biggest revenue lines are still holding up, even modest execution improvement can translate into meaningful earnings leverage.
Upside and capital returns align
Consensus still points to —, while the modeled bull target reaches $284. If $176.7B in forward revenue and $6.16 in EPS are delivered, ongoing shareholder returns running at 0.0% can amplify the equity upside.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
SNEX Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$139.01
52W Range Position
97%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$53.53
+159.7% from the low
52-Week High
$141.41
-1.7% from the high
1 Month
+25.46%
3 Month
+99.56%
YTD
+114.1%
1 Year
+143.4%
3Y CAGR
+73.8%
5Y CAGR
+49.5%
10Y CAGR
+33.1%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
SNEX vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
22.6x
vs 14.0x median
+62% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+16.0%
vs +13.6% median
+18% above peer median
Net Margin
0.3%
vs 9.6% median
-97% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SNE SNEX StoneX Group Inc. | $11.0B | 22.6x | +16.0% | 0.3% | Buy | — |
IBK IBKR Interactive Brokers Group, Inc. | $42.8B | 38.2x | +8.7% | 9.6% | Buy | -8.7% |
VIR VIRT Virtu Financial, Inc. | $5.4B | 9.9x | +13.6% | 14.2% | Hold | -23.9% |
GCM GCMG GCM Grosvenor Inc. | $2.3B | 14.0x | +6.7% | 9.0% | Buy | +49.4% |
LPL LPLA LPL Financial Holdings Inc. | $23.6B | 12.8x | +16.6% | 5.1% | Buy | +50.0% |
PIP PIPR Piper Sandler Companies | $5.8B | 17.3x | +15.6% | 15.0% | Hold | +19.3% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
FAQ
6 questionsSNEX Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is StoneX Group Inc. (SNEX) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
StoneX Group Inc. (SNEX) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 2 analysts covering the stock, 2 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 0 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The bear case scenario is $136 and the bull case is $284.
02Is StoneX Group Inc. (SNEX) stock overvalued in 2026?
SNEX trades at 22.6x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals expensive versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
03What are the main risks for StoneX Group Inc. (SNEX) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for SNEX in 2026 are: (1) Middle East And Asia exposure — Middle East And Asia represents 91. (2) Precious Metals Trading dependence — Precious Metals Trading contributes 96. (3) Valuation de-rating — SNEX trades at 35. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
04What is StoneX Group Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates SNEX will report consensus revenue of $176.7B (+16.0% year-over-year) and EPS of $6.16 (+8.5% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $203.8B in revenue.
05When does StoneX Group Inc. (SNEX) report its next earnings?
StoneX Group Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-08-04. Consensus expects EPS of $1.23 and revenue of $1.3B. Over recent quarters, SNEX has beaten EPS estimates 83% of the time.
06How much free cash flow does StoneX Group Inc. generate?
StoneX Group Inc. (SNEX) generated $7.9B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 5.2%. SNEX returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($0 TTM).