Upside case
Bull case
$918+180.2%
LPLA would need investors to value it at roughly 41x earnings — about 26x more generous than today's 15x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
LPL Financial Holdings Inc. (LPLA) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
22
analysts
12 bullish · 0 bearish · 22 covering LPLA
Strong Buy
0
Buy
12
Hold
10
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$441
+34.6% vs today
Scenario Range
$339 – $918
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
22
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
14.6x
Forward P/E · Market cap $26.3B
LPLA price targets
Three scenarios for where LPLA stock could go
Current
~$328
Confidence
77 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $328
Bear
$339
Base
$786
Bull
$918
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$786+139.9%
At 35x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$339+3.6%
The bear case assumes sentiment or fundamentals disappoint enough to push LPLA down roughly 4% from the current price.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
LPL Financial Holdings Inc.
LPLA · NASDAQFinancial ServicesFinancial - Capital MarketsDecember year-end
LPL Financial operates a comprehensive brokerage and investment advisory platform for independent financial advisors and advisors at financial institutions across the United States. It generates revenue primarily through asset-based fees (roughly 60% of revenue), transaction commissions (about 25%), and cash sweep programs (approximately 15%). The company's key advantage is its massive scale and integrated technology platform that serves over 22,000 advisors—creating significant switching costs and network effects in the independent advisor channel.
Market Cap
$26.3B
Net Income TTM
$863M
LPLA Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
100%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+7.0%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$4.51/$4.23
Revenue
$3.8B/$3.8B
Q4 2025
EPS
$5.20/$4.49
Revenue
$4.6B/$4.4B
Q1 2026
EPS
$5.23/$4.92
Revenue
$4.9B/$4.9B
Q2 2026
EPS
$5.60/$5.49
Revenue
$4.9B/$5.0B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $4.51/$4.23 | +6.6% | $3.8B/$3.8B | +1.6% |
| Q4 2025 | $5.20/$4.49 | +15.8% | $4.6B/$4.4B | +4.6% |
| Q1 2026 | $5.23/$4.92 | +6.3% | $4.9B/$4.9B | +0.5% |
| Q2 2026 | $5.60/$5.49 | +2.0% | $4.9B/$5.0B | -0.9% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$21.5B
+26.4% YoY
FY2
$28.1B
+31.0% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$20.83
+94.0% YoY
FY2
$26.20
+25.8% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)-$1.1B
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
LPLA beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
LPLA Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2018
Total disclosed revenue $1.9B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Asset-based Revenue
50.0%
YoY unavailable
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Asset-based Revenue is the largest disclosed segment at 50.0% of FY 2018 revenue, with no year-over-year comparison yet.
LPLA Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Overvalued
Fair value est. $224 — implies -29.6% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
29.6%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
LPLA
30.0x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
+19% premium
vs Financial Services Trailing P/E
LPLA
30.0x
vs
Financial Services
13.3x
+125% premium
vs LPLA 5Y Avg P/E
Today
30.0x
vs
5Y Average
24.4x
+23% premium
Forward PE
14.6x
S&P 500
19.1x
-24%
Financial Services
10.4x
+40%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
30.0x
S&P 500
25.1x
+19%
Financial Services
13.3x
+125%
5Y Avg
24.4x
+23%
PEG Ratio
2.26x
S&P 500
1.72x
+32%
Financial Services
1.01x
+124%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
11.1x
S&P 500
15.2x
-27%
Financial Services
11.4x
-2%
5Y Avg
13.1x
-15%
Price/FCF
—
S&P 500
21.1x
—
Financial Services
10.6x
—
5Y Avg
76.0x
—
Price/Sales
1.5x
S&P 500
3.1x
-51%
Financial Services
2.2x
-31%
5Y Avg
1.8x
-16%
Dividend Yield
0.36%
S&P 500
1.87%
-80%
Financial Services
2.70%
-86%
5Y Avg
0.46%
-20%
| Metric | LPLA | S&P 500 | Financial Services | 5Y Avg LPLA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 14.6x | 19.1x-24% | 10.4x+40% | — |
| Trailing PE | 30.0x | 25.1x+19% | 13.3x+125% | 24.4x+23% |
| PEG Ratio | 2.26x | 1.72x+32% | 1.01x+124% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.1x | 15.2x-27% | 11.4x | 13.1x-15% |
| Price/FCF | — | 21.1x | 10.6x | 76.0x |
| Price/Sales | 1.5x | 3.1x-51% | 2.2x-31% | 1.8x-16% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.36% | 1.87% | 2.70% | 0.46% |
LPLA trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 2 of 5 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolLPLA Financial Health
Verdict
Exceptional
LPLA generates 18.6% ROE and 5.1% return on assets — the two primary signals for banking profitability. FCF-based metrics are not applicable to financial companies.
Earnings Engine
Revenue, profitability, and return on capital
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
—
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
—
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
—
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
—
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$10.73
ROE
Return on equity — the primary profitability signal for banks
18.6%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
16.1%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
5.1%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$1.0B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$6.2B
FCF Analysis
Traditional FCF and debt/FCF ratios are not meaningful for financial companies. Focus on ROE and ROA above.
ROE
Return on equity — the headline bank profitability metric
18.6%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.9%
Dividend
0.4%
Buyback
0.5%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$133M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$1.19
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
10.9%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
80M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. For financial companies, ROE and ROA are the primary health signals — FCF-based metrics are not applicable.
Open full ratios pageLPLA Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Operational Risks
LPL Financial faces significant operational risks, including potential errors in clearing and trade processing that could lead to regulatory sanctions and financial losses. Additionally, a recent cybersecurity incident involving unauthorized trades has raised concerns about the integrity of client accounts.
High Risk
Interest Rate Sensitivity
A substantial portion of LPL's revenue is derived from client cash programs, which are highly sensitive to interest rate fluctuations. A prolonged low interest rate environment could severely diminish LPL's earnings potential, impacting overall profitability.
High Risk
Debt Financing
LPL has a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.36, indicating a reliance on debt financing. This high level of debt poses risks, particularly if market conditions deteriorate, potentially affecting the company's financial stability.
Medium
Market Volatility
The stock price of LPLA is subject to significant volatility due to various factors, including financial performance and market conditions. Recent insider selling may also indicate a lack of confidence in the company's short-term prospects.
Medium
Regulatory Changes
LPL is subject to regulatory oversight, and changes in regulations, especially those affecting rates on client cash, could impact net interest income. Such regulatory shifts may pose challenges to maintaining profitability.
Medium
Competition
The financial services market is highly competitive, with LPL facing challenges in attracting and retaining advisor talent. Increased competition from other firms could adversely affect LPL's market position and growth.
Lower
Employee Retention
Intense competition for qualified employees in the financial services industry may hinder LPL's ability to retain existing staff or fill new positions. This could impact operational efficiency and service delivery.
Lower
Acquisition Risks
While acquisitions can drive growth for LPL, they also carry inherent risks, including potential negative impacts on financial position and the failure to achieve expected synergies.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why LPLA Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Strong Organic Growth and Advisor Recruitment
LPL Financial has demonstrated substantial organic growth driven by successful retention and recruitment strategies for financial advisors. The company has an 8.7% annual growth rate in advisor headcount over a decade, significantly outpacing the industry average, with a high asset retention rate exceeding 97%.
Growing Client Assets and Revenue
The firm has seen a notable increase in cash sweep balances, reaching $50.6 billion, which is expected to enhance profitability through increased interest income. LPL Financial's assets under management (AUM) are substantial, standing at $2.4 trillion at the end of 2025, with an 8.4% year-over-year revenue growth reported in a recent quarter.
Positive Financial Performance and Profitability
LPL Financial has a history of exceeding earnings per share (EPS) expectations, recently reporting EPS of $5.23, beating consensus estimates. The company shows strong operational efficiency, with a high return on equity (ROE) of 59.3% and return on invested capital (ROIC) of 32.4%.
Favorable Industry Trends
The retail wealth management sector is expected to benefit from favorable market conditions and anticipated stability in short-term interest rates, which supports LPL's revenue streams. The industry is also experiencing consolidation, which LPL's scale and competitive positioning are well-suited to navigate.
Shareholder-Friendly Actions
LPL Financial has a history of reducing its outstanding shares, which can benefit shareholders. This approach not only enhances shareholder value but also reflects the company's commitment to returning capital to its investors.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
LPLA Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$327.58
52W Range Position
38%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$281.51
+16.4% from the low
52-Week High
$403.58
-18.8% from the high
1 Month
+11.25%
3 Month
-12.02%
YTD
-9.4%
1 Year
-1.9%
3Y CAGR
+19.7%
5Y CAGR
+15.9%
10Y CAGR
+29.6%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
LPLA vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
14.6x
vs 12.9x median
+13% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+26.4%
vs +5.2% median
+405% above peer median
Net Margin
—
vs — median
Peer median unavailable
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LPL LPLA LPL Financial Holdings Inc. | $26.3B | 14.6x | +26.4% | — | Buy | +34.6% |
RJF RJF Raymond James Financial, Inc. | $31.3B | 13.4x | +5.2% | — | Hold | +6.4% |
SF SF Stifel Financial Corp. | $12.0B | 12.4x | +5.3% | — | Buy | +20.2% |
AMT AMTD AMTD IDEA Group | $8M | — | — | — | — | — |
CSW CSWC Capital Southwest Corporation | $1.4B | 10.2x | +13.1% | — | Buy | -7.4% |
SCH SCHW The Charles Schwab Corporation | $164.2B | 15.3x | +2.3% | — | Buy | +28.9% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
LPLA Dividend and Capital Return
LPLA returns 0.9% annually — 0.36% through dividends and 0.5% through buybacks.
Dividend SustainableFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
0.9%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.5%
Dividend Yield
0.36%
Payout Ratio
10.9%
How LPLA Splits Its Return
Div 0.36%
Buyback 0.5%
Dividend 0.36%Buybacks 0.5%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$1.19
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
4Y
3Y Div CAGR
6.3%
5Y Div CAGR
3.7%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Semi-Annual
5 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$133M
Estimated Shares Retired
407.5K
Approx. Share Reduction
0.5%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
80M
At 0.5%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.60 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $1.20 | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.8% |
| 2024 | $1.20 | 0.0% | 0.7% | 1.1% |
| 2023 | $1.20 | +20.0% | 6.2% | 6.7% |
| 2022 | $1.00 | 0.0% | 1.8% | 2.3% |
FAQ
7 questionsLPLA Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is LPL Financial Holdings Inc. (LPLA) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
LPL Financial Holdings Inc. (LPLA) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 22 analysts covering the stock, 12 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 10 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $441, implying +34.6% from the current price of $328. The bear case scenario is $339 and the bull case is $918.
02What is the LPLA stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for LPLA is $441 based on 22 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $500 (+52.6% from today), and the low-end target is $374 (+14.2%). The base case model target is $786.
03Is LPL Financial Holdings Inc. (LPLA) stock overvalued in 2026?
LPLA trades at 14.6x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals overvalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for LPL Financial Holdings Inc. (LPLA) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for LPLA in 2026 are: (1) Operational Risks — LPL Financial faces significant operational risks, including potential errors in clearing and trade processing that could lead to regulatory sanctions and financial losses. (2) Interest Rate Sensitivity — A substantial portion of LPL's revenue is derived from client cash programs, which are highly sensitive to interest rate fluctuations. (3) Debt Financing — LPL has a debt-to-equity ratio of 1. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is LPL Financial Holdings Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates LPLA will report consensus revenue of $21.5B (+26.4% year-over-year) and EPS of $20.83 (+94.0% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $28.1B in revenue.
06When does LPL Financial Holdings Inc. (LPLA) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for LPLA is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does LPL Financial Holdings Inc. generate?
LPL Financial Holdings Inc. (LPLA) had a free cash outflow of $1.1B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months. LPLA returns capital to shareholders through dividends (0.4% yield) and share repurchases ($133M TTM).