Upside case
Bull case
—
The bull case requires both strong earnings delivery and the market pricing SOC more generously than it does today.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Sable Offshore Corp. (SOC) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
4
analysts
2 bullish · 1 bearish · 4 covering SOC
Strong Buy
0
Buy
2
Hold
1
Sell
1
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$27
+110.3% vs today
Scenario Range
— – —
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
4
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
7.5x
Forward P/E · Market cap $1.84T
SOC price targets
Three scenarios for where SOC stock could go
Current
~$13
Confidence
—
Updated
May 1, 2026
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
—
The base case reflects analyst consensus expectations — steady delivery without requiring a major catalyst or re-rating.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Sable Offshore Corp.
SOC · NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Drilling
Sable Offshore Corp is an oil and gas exploration and production company focused on offshore California operations. It generates revenue primarily from oil and gas production across its three offshore platforms and onshore processing facility — with the majority coming from oil sales. The company's key advantage is its established infrastructure and long-term federal leases covering approximately 76,000 acres in a mature offshore basin.
Market Cap
$1.84T
Revenue TTM
$1M
Net Income TTM
-$498M
Net Margin
-39153.7%
SOC Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
10%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
0%Mixed
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
-239.5%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 1 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$-1.10/$-0.66
Revenue
$2M/$93M
Q4 2025
EPS
$-1.11/$-0.90
Revenue
$1M/$40M
Q1 2026
EPS
$-0.39/$-0.59
Revenue
—/$500000
Q2 2026
EPS
$-1.06/$-0.52
Revenue
$1M/$16M
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $-1.10/$-0.66 | -66.7% | $2M/$93M | -98.4% |
| Q4 2025 | $-1.11/$-0.90 | -23.3% | $1M/$40M | -97.5% |
| Q1 2026 | $-0.39/$-0.59 | +33.9% | —/$500000 | — |
| Q2 2026 | $-1.06/$-0.52 | -103.1% | $1M/$16M | -91.9% |
Next Earnings
May 7, 2026
Expected EPS
$-0.52
Expected Revenue
$16M
SOC beat EPS estimates in 1 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
SOC Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Slightly Overvalued
Fair value est. $13 — implies -5.1% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
5.1%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
SOC
-3.1x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
112% discount
vs Energy Trailing P/E
SOC
-3.1x
vs
Energy
16.8x
118% discount
vs SOC 5Y Avg P/E
Today
-3.1x
vs
5Y Average
81.0x
104% discount
Forward PE
7.5x
S&P 500
19.1x
-61%
Energy
13.3x
-44%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
-3.1x
S&P 500
25.1x
-112%
Energy
16.8x
-118%
5Y Avg
81.0x
-104%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.70x
—
Energy
0.57x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
—
S&P 500
15.3x
—
Energy
8.1x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
Price/FCF
—
S&P 500
21.4x
—
Energy
14.3x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
Price/Sales
—
S&P 500
3.1x
—
Energy
1.6x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.90%
—
Energy
3.23%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | SOC | S&P 500 | Energy | 5Y Avg SOC |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 7.5x | 19.1x-61% | 13.3x-44% | — |
| Trailing PE | -3.1x | 25.1x-112% | 16.8x-118% | 81.0x-104% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.70x | 0.57x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | — | 15.3x | 8.1x | — |
| Price/FCF | — | 21.4x | 14.3x | — |
| Price/Sales | — | 3.1x | 1.6x | — |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.90% | 3.23% | — |
SOC trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 0 of 2 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolSOC Financial Health
Verdict
Stressed
Key financial metrics for SOC are shown below.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$1M
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
—
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
-872.0%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
-36761.7%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
-39153.7%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$-0.00
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
-$611M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
-48043.5%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
-44.6%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
-28.9%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$98M
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$98M
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
Net cash ✓
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
-113.8%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.0%
Dividend
—
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
143.7B
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageSOC Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
Based on the latest company results, valuation, and market data
Medium
Valuation de-rating
SOC trades at -3.1x trailing earnings versus 25.1x for the S&P 500 and 16.8x for its sector. If earnings delivery or sentiment slips, the stock could re-rate lower and move closer to the bear case target of —.
Lower
Capital return support
Part of the per-share support comes from capital returns, backed by -$611M in trailing free cash flow, a 0.0% buyback yield. If cash generation softens, the EPS lift and downside cushion from repurchases can narrow.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why SOC Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
Based on recent company results and analyst estimates
High-margin cash engine
Sable Offshore Corp. already operates from a position of scale, with -872.0% gross margin, -36761.7% operating margin, and -$611M in trailing free cash flow. That combination gives management room to keep funding product investment without relying on outside capital.
Multiple growth levers remain
Sable Offshore Corp. still has room to compound if management converts its existing scale into steadier revenue growth and margin discipline. The bull case does not require perfection; it requires the core business to keep translating operating strength into higher per-share earnings.
Upside and capital returns align
Consensus still points to $27, or 110.3% upside, while the modeled bull target reaches —. If — in forward revenue and — in EPS are delivered, ongoing shareholder returns running at 0.0% can amplify the equity upside.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
SOC Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$12.84
52W Range Position
29%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$3.72
+245.2% from the low
52-Week High
$35.00
-63.3% from the high
1 Month
-10.52%
3 Month
+50.70%
YTD
+9.5%
1 Year
-36.8%
3Y CAGR
+8.2%
5Y CAGR
+5.8%
10Y CAGR
+2.8%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
SOC vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
7.5x
vs 9.4x median
-20% below peer median
Revenue Growth
—
vs +15.1% median
Peer median unavailable
Net Margin
-39153.7%
vs -13.1% median
-299007% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SOC SOC Sable Offshore Corp. | $1.84T | 7.5x | — | -39153.7% | Buy | +110.3% |
CIV CIVI Civitas Resources, Inc. | $2.3B | 6.8x | +38.0% | 13.6% | Hold | +13.2% |
TAL TALO Talos Energy Inc. | $2.5B | — | +2.5% | -42.7% | Buy | -7.8% |
VTL VTLE Vital Energy, Inc. | $693M | 4.0x | +16.7% | -69.3% | Hold | +28.3% |
BAT BATL Battalion Oil Corporation | $47M | 12.4x | -9.4% | 7.2% | Buy | — |
CRC CRC California Resources Corporation | $5.4B | 12.1x | +15.1% | -13.1% | Buy | +11.8% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
FAQ
6 questionsSOC Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Sable Offshore Corp. (SOC) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Sable Offshore Corp. (SOC) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 4 analysts covering the stock, 2 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 1 rate it Hold, and 1 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $27, implying +110.3% from the current price of $13.
02What is the SOC stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for SOC is $27 based on 4 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $28 (+118.1% from today), and the low-end target is $26 (+102.5%).
03Is Sable Offshore Corp. (SOC) stock overvalued in 2026?
SOC trades at 7.5x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals slightly overvalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Sable Offshore Corp. (SOC) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for SOC in 2026 are: (1) Valuation de-rating — SOC trades at -3. (2) Capital return support — Part of the per-share support comes from capital returns, backed by -$611M in trailing free cash flow, a 0. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05When does Sable Offshore Corp. (SOC) report its next earnings?
Sable Offshore Corp. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-05-07. Consensus expects EPS of $-0.52 and revenue of $16M. Over recent quarters, SOC has beaten EPS estimates 10% of the time.
06How much free cash flow does Sable Offshore Corp. generate?
Sable Offshore Corp. (SOC) had a free cash outflow of $611M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 48043.5%. SOC returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($0 TTM).