Upside case
Bull case
$1453+80.3%
STRL would need investors to value it at roughly 106x earnings — about 47x more generous than today's 59x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Sterling Infrastructure, Inc. (STRL) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
9
analysts
6 bullish · 0 bearish · 9 covering STRL
Strong Buy
0
Buy
6
Hold
3
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$488
-39.4% vs today
Scenario Range
$36 – $1453
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
9
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
58.7x
Forward P/E · Market cap $24.7B
STRL price targets
Three scenarios for where STRL stock could go
Current
~$806
Confidence
73 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $806
Bear
$36
Base
$1388
Bull
$1453
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$1388+72.2%
At 101x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$36-95.6%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 56x multiple contraction could push STRL down roughly 96% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Sterling Infrastructure, Inc.
STRL · NASDAQIndustrialsEngineering & ConstructionDecember year-end
Sterling Infrastructure is a construction company specializing in transportation infrastructure, e-commerce site development, and building foundations across the Southern, Northeastern, and Western United States. It generates revenue through three main segments: transportation infrastructure projects like highways and bridges (~50% of revenue), e-infrastructure services for data centers and distribution facilities (~30%), and residential/commercial concrete foundations (~20%). The company's competitive advantage lies in its established regional presence across high-growth markets and its specialized expertise in complex infrastructure projects that require significant technical capability.
Market Cap
$24.7B
Revenue TTM
$2.9B
Net Income TTM
$347M
Net Margin
12.0%
STRL Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
100%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
67%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+21.7%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$2.69/$2.26
Revenue
$614M/$612M
Q4 2025
EPS
$3.48/$2.79
Revenue
$689M/$638M
Q1 2026
EPS
$3.08/$2.62
Revenue
$756M/$640M
Q2 2026
EPS
$3.59/$2.29
Revenue
$826M/$604M
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $2.69/$2.26 | +19.0% | $614M/$612M | +0.4% |
| Q4 2025 | $3.48/$2.79 | +24.7% | $689M/$638M | +8.0% |
| Q1 2026 | $3.08/$2.62 | +17.6% | $756M/$640M | +18.0% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.59/$2.29 | +56.8% | $826M/$604M | +36.8% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$3.3B
+14.2% YoY
FY2
$3.8B
+15.2% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$13.58
+21.6% YoY
FY2
$16.15
+19.0% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$440M
FCF Margin: 15.3%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
STRL beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
STRL Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $2.5B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
E-Infrastructure Solutions Segment
58.9%
+58.8% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
E-Infrastructure Solutions Segment is the largest disclosed segment at 58.9% of FY 2025 revenue, up 58.8% YoY.
STRL Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Overvalued
Fair value est. $364 — implies -31.6% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
31.6%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
STRL
85.9x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
+242% premium
vs Industrials Trailing P/E
STRL
85.9x
vs
Industrials
25.7x
+235% premium
vs STRL 5Y Avg P/E
Today
85.9x
vs
5Y Average
18.9x
+355% premium
Forward PE
58.7x
S&P 500
19.1x
+208%
Industrials
20.7x
+183%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
85.9x
S&P 500
25.1x
+242%
Industrials
25.7x
+235%
5Y Avg
18.9x
+355%
PEG Ratio
1.94x
S&P 500
1.72x
+13%
Industrials
1.64x
+18%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
50.2x
S&P 500
15.2x
+230%
Industrials
13.7x
+268%
5Y Avg
11.7x
+328%
Price/FCF
68.2x
S&P 500
21.1x
+223%
Industrials
21.2x
+222%
5Y Avg
11.7x
+483%
Price/Sales
9.9x
S&P 500
3.1x
+218%
Industrials
1.6x
+526%
5Y Avg
1.8x
+465%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.87%
—
Industrials
1.27%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | STRL | S&P 500 | Industrials | 5Y Avg STRL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 58.7x | 19.1x+208% | 20.7x+183% | — |
| Trailing PE | 85.9x | 25.1x+242% | 25.7x+235% | 18.9x+355% |
| PEG Ratio | 1.94x | 1.72x+13% | 1.64x+18% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 50.2x | 15.2x+230% | 13.7x+268% | 11.7x+328% |
| Price/FCF | 68.2x | 21.1x+223% | 21.2x+222% | 11.7x+483% |
| Price/Sales | 9.9x | 3.1x+218% | 1.6x+526% | 1.8x+465% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.87% | 1.27% | — |
STRL trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 6 of 6 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolSTRL Financial Health
Verdict
Exceptional
STRL generates $440M in free cash flow at a 15.3% margin — 38.9% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$2.9B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+37.0%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
22.8%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
17.0%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
12.0%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$11.17
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$440M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
15.3%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
38.9%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
13.7%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$391M
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$41M
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
Net cash ✓
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
32.3%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.3%
Dividend
—
Buyback
0.3%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$74M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
31M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageSTRL Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Economic and Market Conditions
The potential overheating of the housing market could lead to a reduction in construction project orders for STRL. Additionally, the company is closely monitoring potential recessions and inflation, which could adversely affect its operations and profitability.
High Risk
Financial Risks
STRL faces significant financial risks due to higher interest rates that increase borrowing costs. The company is heavily leveraged, with a substantial debt-to-equity ratio, which poses a risk if customer non-payment occurs.
Medium
Operational and Input Costs
Increased input costs stemming from supply chain disruptions and labor shortages could negatively impact STRL's profit margins. These operational challenges are critical to monitor as they can affect overall financial performance.
Medium
Geopolitical and Regulatory Factors
STRL is exposed to geopolitical tensions, trade disputes, and changes in governmental policies that could negatively impact its business activities. Such factors require active monitoring and management to mitigate potential risks.
Medium
Cybersecurity and Data Security
The company faces significant risks from cyber breaches and data security threats, including denial of service attacks on critical IT systems. Evolving security threats, particularly those related to AI, present increasing operational and reputational risks.
Lower
Competition
STRL operates in a highly competitive environment, particularly in aerospace MRO, which could pressure margins and market share. The competitive landscape requires ongoing strategic adjustments to maintain a competitive edge.
Lower
Industry-Specific Risks
STRL's heavy reliance on government defense budgets presents a key risk, as fluctuations in these budgets can directly impact revenue. Additionally, the E-Infrastructure Solutions segment's dependence on data center demand could be affected by market bubbles.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why STRL Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Transformation and E-Infrastructure Growth
Sterling Construction has evolved from a traditional civil construction firm to a critical partner for the AI revolution, focusing on e-infrastructure solutions. The E-Infrastructure Solutions segment has experienced explosive growth, with revenue increasing by 125% year-over-year, fueled by demand from data centers and semiconductor fabrication plants.
Strong Financial Performance and Backlog
The company has demonstrated impressive financial results, including significant earnings beats and raises. Its signed backlog has grown substantially, with remaining performance obligations surging 52% year-to-date, indicating strong future revenue visibility.
Positive Analyst Sentiment and Technicals
Analysts maintain a strong bullish sentiment, with a consensus 'Buy' rating and numerous 'Strong Buy' recommendations. Technically, STRL has a 100% 'Buy' opinion from Barchart and has been trading at new all-time highs.
Growth Tailwinds and Future Outlook
Sterling Infrastructure is well-positioned to benefit from critical megatrends like the AI-driven data center boom and tech-focused reshoring. Projections indicate continued strong growth, with revenue and earnings expected to grow by 25% in 2026.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
STRL Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$806.00
52W Range Position
100%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$167.00
+382.6% from the low
52-Week High
$807.24
-0.2% from the high
1 Month
+104.72%
3 Month
+120.78%
YTD
+152.5%
1 Year
+383.6%
3Y CAGR
+166.2%
5Y CAGR
+104.3%
10Y CAGR
+68.7%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
STRL vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
58.7x
vs 37.7x median
+56% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+14.2%
vs +17.0% median
-16% below peer median
Net Margin
12.0%
vs 4.0% median
+201% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
STR STRL Sterling Infrastructure, Inc. | $24.7B | 58.7x | +14.2% | 12.0% | Buy | -39.4% |
PRI PRIM Primoris Services Corporation | $11.0B | 33.9x | +17.0% | 3.3% | Buy | -20.8% |
ROA ROAD Construction Partners, Inc. | $7.3B | 46.7x | +37.8% | 4.0% | Buy | +4.3% |
MYR MYRG MYR Group Inc. | $7.3B | 48.3x | +8.0% | 3.7% | Hold | -22.7% |
IES IESC IES Holdings, Inc. | $13.2B | 37.7x | +17.5% | 9.8% | Buy | -30.8% |
WLD WLDN Willdan Group, Inc. | $1.1B | 18.6x | +8.0% | 7.7% | Buy | +53.3% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
STRL Dividend and Capital Return
STRL returns 0.3% annually — null% through dividends and 0.3% through buybacks.
Dividend UnknownFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
0.3%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.3%
Dividend Yield
—
Payout Ratio
—
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.00
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
1Y
3Y Div CAGR
—
5Y Div CAGR
—
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
—
0 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$74M
Estimated Shares Retired
92.1K
Approx. Share Reduction
0.3%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
31M
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1998 | $0.00 | — | 0.0% | 0.0% |
FAQ
7 questionsSTRL Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Sterling Infrastructure, Inc. (STRL) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Sterling Infrastructure, Inc. (STRL) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 9 analysts covering the stock, 6 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 3 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $488, implying -39.4% from the current price of $806. The bear case scenario is $36 and the bull case is $1453.
02What is the STRL stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for STRL is $488 based on 9 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $572 (-29.0% from today), and the low-end target is $413 (-48.8%). The base case model target is $1388.
03Is Sterling Infrastructure, Inc. (STRL) stock overvalued in 2026?
STRL trades at 58.7x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly overvalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Sterling Infrastructure, Inc. (STRL) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for STRL in 2026 are: (1) Economic and Market Conditions — The potential overheating of the housing market could lead to a reduction in construction project orders for STRL. (2) Financial Risks — STRL faces significant financial risks due to higher interest rates that increase borrowing costs. (3) Operational and Input Costs — Increased input costs stemming from supply chain disruptions and labor shortages could negatively impact STRL's profit margins. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Sterling Infrastructure, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates STRL will report consensus revenue of $3.3B (+14.2% year-over-year) and EPS of $13.58 (+21.6% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $3.8B in revenue.
06When does Sterling Infrastructure, Inc. (STRL) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for STRL is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Sterling Infrastructure, Inc. generate?
Sterling Infrastructure, Inc. (STRL) generated $440M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 15.3%. STRL returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($74M TTM).