Upside case
Bull case
$767-11.0%
The bull case prices STRL at 41x on FY1 earnings, assuming continued execution and no meaningful deceleration in the core business.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Sterling Infrastructure, Inc. (STRL) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
9
analysts
7 bullish · 0 bearish · 9 covering STRL
Strong Buy
0
Buy
7
Hold
2
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$656
-23.9% vs today
Scenario Range
$367 – $767
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
9
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
45.6x
Forward P/E · Market cap $26.4B
STRL price targets
Three scenarios for where STRL stock could go
Current
~$862
Confidence
51 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $862
Bear
$367
Base
$582
Bull
$767
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$582-32.4%
At 31x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$367-57.4%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 26x multiple contraction could push STRL down roughly 57% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Sterling Infrastructure, Inc.
STRL · NASDAQIndustrialsEngineering & ConstructionDecember year-end
Sterling Infrastructure is a construction company specializing in transportation infrastructure, e-commerce site development, and building foundations across the Southern, Northeastern, and Western United States. It generates revenue through three main segments: transportation infrastructure projects like highways and bridges (~50% of revenue), e-infrastructure services for data centers and distribution facilities (~30%), and residential/commercial concrete foundations (~20%). The company's competitive advantage lies in its established regional presence across high-growth markets and its specialized expertise in complex infrastructure projects that require significant technical capability.
Market Cap
$26.4B
Revenue TTM
$2.9B
Net Income TTM
$347M
Net Margin
12.0%
STRL Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
100%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
67%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+21.8%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$2.69/$2.26
Revenue
$614M/$612M
Q4 2025
EPS
$3.48/$2.79
Revenue
$689M/$638M
Q1 2026
EPS
$3.08/$2.62
Revenue
$756M/$640M
Q2 2026
EPS
$3.59/$2.28
Revenue
$826M/$604M
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $2.69/$2.26 | +19.0% | $614M/$612M | +0.4% |
| Q4 2025 | $3.48/$2.79 | +24.7% | $689M/$638M | +8.0% |
| Q1 2026 | $3.08/$2.62 | +17.6% | $756M/$640M | +18.0% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.59/$2.28 | +57.5% | $826M/$604M | +36.8% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$3.2B
+12.1% YoY
FY2
$3.7B
+14.6% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$11.92
+6.7% YoY
FY2
$12.94
+8.6% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$440M
FCF Margin: 15.3%
Next Earnings
August 3, 2026
Expected EPS
$4.99
Expected Revenue
$963M
STRL beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
STRL Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $2.5B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
E-Infrastructure Solutions Segment
58.9%
+58.8% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
E-Infrastructure Solutions Segment is the largest disclosed segment at 58.9% of FY 2025 revenue, up 58.8% YoY.
STRL Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Expensive versus peers
Fair value est. $436 — implies -49.4% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
49.4%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
STRL
91.9x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
+276% premium
vs Industrials Trailing P/E
STRL
91.9x
vs
Industrials
25.6x
+259% premium
vs STRL 5Y Avg P/E
Today
91.9x
vs
5Y Average
18.9x
+386% premium
Forward PE
45.6x
S&P 500
18.8x
+142%
Industrials
21.2x
+115%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
91.9x
S&P 500
24.4x
+276%
Industrials
25.6x
+259%
5Y Avg
18.9x
+386%
PEG Ratio
2.07x
S&P 500
1.66x
+25%
Industrials
1.65x
+26%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
53.7x
S&P 500
15.2x
+253%
Industrials
13.9x
+287%
5Y Avg
11.7x
+358%
Price/FCF
72.9x
S&P 500
20.7x
+252%
Industrials
20.0x
+264%
5Y Avg
11.7x
+523%
Price/Sales
10.6x
S&P 500
3.1x
+243%
Industrials
1.6x
+580%
5Y Avg
1.8x
+504%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.91%
—
Industrials
1.21%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | STRL | S&P 500 | Industrials | 5Y Avg STRL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 45.6x | 18.8x+142% | 21.2x+115% | — |
| Trailing PE | 91.9x | 24.4x+276% | 25.6x+259% | 18.9x+386% |
| PEG Ratio | 2.07x | 1.66x+25% | 1.65x+26% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 53.7x | 15.2x+253% | 13.9x+287% | 11.7x+358% |
| Price/FCF | 72.9x | 20.7x+252% | 20.0x+264% | 11.7x+523% |
| Price/Sales | 10.6x | 3.1x+243% | 1.6x+580% | 1.8x+504% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.91% | 1.21% | — |
STRL trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 6 of 6 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolSTRL Financial Health
Verdict
Exceptional
STRL generates $440M in free cash flow at a 15.3% margin — 38.9% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$2.9B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+37.0%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
22.8%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
17.0%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
12.0%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$11.17
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$440M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
15.3%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
38.9%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
13.7%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$391M
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$41M
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
Net cash ✓
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
32.3%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.3%
Dividend
—
Buyback
0.3%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$74M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
31M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageSTRL Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
High Risk
Earnings sustainability risk
Despite record Q1 2026 performance with 92% y/y revenue growth, sustaining such high growth rates long-term may prove challenging.
High Risk
Backlog execution risk
The company's record $3 billion backlog introduces execution risks, including potential delays or cost overruns in project completion.
Medium
Valuation uncertainty
Fair value estimates for STRL vary widely (US$254.80 to US$451.80), indicating significant disagreement about intrinsic value.
Medium
Sector concentration risk
Heavy reliance on E-Infrastructure segment (40%+ growth projected) creates vulnerability if AI/hyperscaler demand slows unexpectedly.
Lower
Regulatory compliance risk
As a contractor handling critical infrastructure, the company faces ongoing compliance risks across multiple jurisdictions.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why STRL Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Strong earnings and revenue beat
Sterling Infrastructure reported a first-quarter earnings and revenue beat, raising its 2026 guidance.
Growing backlog from AI data centers
The company highlighted a larger backlog driven by AI-related data center projects.
Successful turnaround story
Investors emphasize Sterling Infrastructure's turnaround as a key bullish driver.
Diversified business segments
The company's diversified segments contribute to its resilience and growth potential.
Disciplined M&A strategy
Sterling Infrastructure's disciplined approach to mergers and acquisitions is seen as a positive factor.
Significant stock appreciation
The stock has appreciated approximately 114.22% since coverage, reflecting strong performance.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
STRL Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$861.88
52W Range Position
82%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$214.20
+302.4% from the low
52-Week High
$1005.68
-14.3% from the high
1 Month
+11.82%
3 Month
+104.61%
YTD
+170.0%
1 Year
+284.8%
3Y CAGR
+154.0%
5Y CAGR
+108.5%
10Y CAGR
+66.9%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
STRL vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
45.6x
vs 36.2x median
+26% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+12.1%
vs +8.8% median
+38% above peer median
Net Margin
12.0%
vs 3.9% median
+208% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
STR STRL Sterling Infrastructure, Inc. | $26.4B | 45.6x | +12.1% | 12.0% | Buy | -23.9% |
PRI PRIM Primoris Services Corporation | $5.5B | 20.9x | +7.2% | 3.3% | Buy | +50.8% |
ROA ROAD Construction Partners, Inc. | $6.9B | 40.8x | +9.2% | 3.9% | Buy | +15.9% |
MYR MYRG MYR Group Inc. | $7.2B | 40.3x | +8.8% | 3.7% | Hold | -10.5% |
IES IESC IES Holdings, Inc. | $14.2B | 36.2x | +9.6% | 9.8% | Hold | -35.7% |
WLD WLDN Willdan Group, Inc. | $1.3B | 21.6x | +8.1% | 8.2% | Buy | +32.0% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
STRL Dividend and Capital Return
STRL returns 0.3% annually — null% through dividends and 0.3% through buybacks.
Dividend UnknownFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
0.3%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.3%
Dividend Yield
—
Payout Ratio
—
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.00
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
—
5Y Div CAGR
—
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
—
0 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$74M
Estimated Shares Retired
86.1K
Approx. Share Reduction
0.3%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
31M
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1998 | $0.00 | — | 0.0% | 0.0% |
FAQ
7 questionsSTRL Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Sterling Infrastructure, Inc. (STRL) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Sterling Infrastructure, Inc. (STRL) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 9 analysts covering the stock, 7 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 2 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $656, implying -23.9% from the current price of $862. The bear case scenario is $367 and the bull case is $767.
02What is the STRL stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for STRL is $656 based on 9 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $950 (+10.2% from today), and the low-end target is $413 (-52.1%). The base case model target is $582.
03Is Sterling Infrastructure, Inc. (STRL) stock overvalued in 2026?
STRL trades at 45.6x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals expensive versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Sterling Infrastructure, Inc. (STRL) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for STRL in 2026 are: (1) Earnings sustainability risk — Despite record Q1 2026 performance with 92% y/y revenue growth, sustaining such high growth rates long-term may prove challenging. (2) Backlog execution risk — The company's record $3 billion backlog introduces execution risks, including potential delays or cost overruns in project completion. (3) Valuation uncertainty — Fair value estimates for STRL vary widely (US$254. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Sterling Infrastructure, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates STRL will report consensus revenue of $3.2B (+12.1% year-over-year) and EPS of $11.92 (+6.7% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $3.7B in revenue.
06When does Sterling Infrastructure, Inc. (STRL) report its next earnings?
Sterling Infrastructure, Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-08-03. Consensus expects EPS of $4.99 and revenue of $963M. Over recent quarters, STRL has beaten EPS estimates 100% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Sterling Infrastructure, Inc. generate?
Sterling Infrastructure, Inc. (STRL) generated $440M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 15.3%. STRL returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($74M TTM).