Upside case
Bull case
$129-8.4%
The bull case prices STZ at 11x on FY1 earnings, assuming continued execution and no meaningful deceleration in the core business.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Constellation Brands, Inc. (STZ) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
46
analysts
25 bullish · 1 bearish · 46 covering STZ
Strong Buy
1
Buy
24
Hold
20
Sell
1
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$178
+26.2% vs today
Scenario Range
$62 – $129
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
46
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
12.0x
Forward P/E · Market cap $24.5B
STZ price targets
Three scenarios for where STZ stock could go
Current
~$141
Confidence
48 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $141
Bear
$62
Base
$98
Bull
$129
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$98-30.5%
At 8x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$62-56.2%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 7x multiple contraction could push STZ down roughly 56% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Constellation Brands, Inc.
STZ · NYSEConsumer DefensiveBeverages - Wineries & DistilleriesFebruary year-end
Constellation Brands is a leading alcoholic beverage company that produces, imports, and markets premium beer, wine, and spirits brands. It generates most of its revenue from beer sales — primarily its Corona and Modelo brands — which contribute over 75% of operating income, with wine and spirits making up the remainder. The company's key advantage is its exclusive, long-term rights to import and market the high-growth Mexican beer portfolio in the U.S., creating a powerful distribution moat in the premium beer segment.
Market Cap
$24.5B
Revenue TTM
$9.4B
Net Income TTM
$1.1B
Net Margin
11.8%
STZ Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
50%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+6.9%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$3.22/$3.31
Revenue
$2.5B/$2.6B
Q4 2025
EPS
$3.63/$3.38
Revenue
$2.5B/$2.5B
Q1 2026
EPS
$3.06/$2.63
Revenue
$2.2B/$2.2B
Q2 2026
EPS
$1.90/$1.71
Revenue
$1.9B/$1.9B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $3.22/$3.31 | -2.7% | $2.5B/$2.6B | -1.5% |
| Q4 2025 | $3.63/$3.38 | +7.4% | $2.5B/$2.5B | +1.0% |
| Q1 2026 | $3.06/$2.63 | +16.3% | $2.2B/$2.2B | +3.2% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.90/$1.71 | +11.1% | $1.9B/$1.9B | +2.1% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$9.7B
+3.9% YoY
FY2
$9.9B
+2.0% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$6.35
-0.1% YoY
FY2
$5.45
-14.2% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$1.8B
FCF Margin: 18.8%
Next Earnings
July 7, 2026
Expected EPS
$3.24
Expected Revenue
$2.4B
STZ beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
STZ Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $10.2B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Beer
83.7%
+4.6% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
98.1%
+2.8% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Beer is the largest disclosed segment at 83.7% of FY 2025 revenue, up 4.6% YoY.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 98.1%, up 2.8% YoY.
STZ Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Slightly cheap versus peers
Fair value est. $162 — implies +14.6% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
14.6%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
STZ
-313.7x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
1383% discount
vs Consumer Defensive Trailing P/E
STZ
-313.7x
vs
Consumer Defensive
18.9x
1759% discount
vs STZ 5Y Avg P/E
Today
-313.7x
vs
5Y Average
23.7x
1424% discount
Forward PE
12.0x
S&P 500
18.8x
-36%
Consumer Defensive
14.2x
-16%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
-313.7x
S&P 500
24.4x
-1383%
Consumer Defensive
18.9x
-1759%
5Y Avg
23.7x
-1424%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.66x
—
Consumer Defensive
1.92x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
9.0x
S&P 500
15.2x
-41%
Consumer Defensive
11.1x
-19%
5Y Avg
15.2x
-41%
Price/FCF
12.6x
S&P 500
20.7x
-39%
Consumer Defensive
15.3x
-17%
5Y Avg
23.5x
-46%
Price/Sales
2.4x
S&P 500
3.1x
-22%
Consumer Defensive
0.9x
+172%
5Y Avg
4.4x
-45%
Dividend Yield
2.86%
S&P 500
1.91%
+49%
Consumer Defensive
3.06%
-7%
5Y Avg
1.57%
+82%
| Metric | STZ | S&P 500 | Consumer Defensive | 5Y Avg STZ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 12.0x | 18.8x-36% | 14.2x-16% | — |
| Trailing PE | -313.7x | 24.4x-1383% | 18.9x-1759% | 23.7x-1424% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.66x | 1.92x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.0x | 15.2x-41% | 11.1x-19% | 15.2x-41% |
| Price/FCF | 12.6x | 20.7x-39% | 15.3x-17% | 23.5x-46% |
| Price/Sales | 2.4x | 3.1x-22% | 0.9x+172% | 4.4x-45% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.86% | 1.91% | 3.06% | 1.57% |
STZ trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 0 of 5 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolSTZ Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
STZ generates $1.8B in free cash flow at a 18.8% margin — 13.0% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 7.4% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$9.4B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
-7.9%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
52.0%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
34.5%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
11.8%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$6.35
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$1.8B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
18.8%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
13.0%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
5.1%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$68M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$12.0B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
6.8× FCF
~6.8 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
13.9%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
7.4%
Dividend
2.9%
Buyback
4.6%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$1.1B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$4.03
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
173M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageSTZ Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
High Risk
Earnings Miss
Constellation Brands missed Wall Street's estimates for quarterly earnings and revenue due to lower demand and higher aluminum tariffs.
High Risk
Lowered Guidance
The company lowered its full-year guidance and reiterated this after Q2 2026 earnings, with shares near 5-year lows.
High Risk
Declining Alcohol Consumption
Constellation Brands faces headwinds as consumers are drinking less alcohol, leading to an expected double-digit decline in earnings for Fiscal 2026.
Medium
Macroeconomic Risks
Higher aluminum tariffs and broader macroeconomic challenges are impacting costs and demand.
Lower
Valuation Concerns
Shares are trading at historically low levels, reflecting investor concerns over growth prospects.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why STZ Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Premium Mexican beer focus
Constellation Brands has a durable, cash-generating business centered on premium Mexican beer, which is a key driver of its financial performance.
Strong brand portfolio
The company's brand strength, particularly in high-end wines and spirits, supports its market position and growth potential.
Steady cash flow
Constellation Brands generates consistent cash flow, providing financial stability and opportunities for reinvestment or shareholder returns.
Attractive valuation
The company's trailing and forward P/E ratios suggest it is reasonably valued, offering potential upside for investors.
Community and local involvement
Constellation's engagement in community programs and local schools enhances its corporate reputation and brand loyalty.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
STZ Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$141.18
52W Range Position
28%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$126.45
+11.6% from the low
52-Week High
$178.14
-20.7% from the high
1 Month
-4.34%
3 Month
-7.17%
YTD
+0.0%
1 Year
-11.8%
3Y CAGR
-16.6%
5Y CAGR
-8.6%
10Y CAGR
-0.9%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
STZ vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
12.0x
vs 17.1x median
-30% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+3.9%
vs +2.7% median
+43% above peer median
Net Margin
11.8%
vs -2.9% median
+505% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
STZ STZ Constellation Brands, Inc. | $24.5B | 12.0x | +3.9% | 11.8% | Buy | +26.2% |
BUD BUD Anheuser-Busch InBev SA/NV | $138.9B | 18.4x | +2.7% | 10.5% | Buy | +10.2% |
TAP TAP Molson Coors Beverage Company | $7.4B | 8.3x | +0.7% | -18.9% | Hold | +19.3% |
SAM SAM The Boston Beer Company, Inc. | $1.9B | 18.5x | +3.4% | -2.9% | Hold | +37.6% |
DEO DEO Diageo plc | $44.7B | 17.1x | +2.7% | 14.7% | Hold | +38.6% |
MGP MGPI MGP Ingredients, Inc. | $351M | 10.3x | 0.0% | -46.0% | Buy | +76.4% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
STZ Dividend and Capital Return
STZ returns capital mainly through $1.1B/year in buybacks (4.6% buyback yield), with a modest 2.86% dividend — combining for 7.4% total shareholder yield. The dividend has grown for 11 consecutive years.
Dividend UnknownFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
7.4%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
4.6%
Dividend Yield
2.86%
Payout Ratio
—
How STZ Splits Its Return
Div 2.86%
Buyback 4.6%
Dividend 2.86%Buybacks 4.6%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$4.03
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
11Y
3Y Div CAGR
8.8%
5Y Div CAGR
6.3%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$1.1B
Estimated Shares Retired
8M
Approx. Share Reduction
4.6%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
173M
At 4.6%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $2.05 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $4.07 | +3.8% | 3.5% | 5.8% |
| 2024 | $3.92 | +13.0% | 0.5% | 2.0% |
| 2023 | $3.47 | +9.8% | 7.4% | 8.8% |
| 2022 | $3.16 | +4.3% | 3.4% | 4.8% |
FAQ
7 questionsSTZ Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Constellation Brands, Inc. (STZ) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Constellation Brands, Inc. (STZ) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 46 analysts covering the stock, 25 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 20 rate it Hold, and 1 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $178, implying +26.2% from the current price of $141. The bear case scenario is $62 and the bull case is $129.
02What is the STZ stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for STZ is $178 based on 46 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $197 (+39.5% from today), and the low-end target is $155 (+9.8%). The base case model target is $98.
03Is Constellation Brands, Inc. (STZ) stock overvalued in 2026?
STZ trades at 12.0x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals slightly cheap versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Constellation Brands, Inc. (STZ) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for STZ in 2026 are: (1) Earnings Miss — Constellation Brands missed Wall Street's estimates for quarterly earnings and revenue due to lower demand and higher aluminum tariffs. (2) Lowered Guidance — The company lowered its full-year guidance and reiterated this after Q2 2026 earnings, with shares near 5-year lows. (3) Declining Alcohol Consumption — Constellation Brands faces headwinds as consumers are drinking less alcohol, leading to an expected double-digit decline in earnings for Fiscal 2026. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Constellation Brands, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates STZ will report consensus revenue of $9.7B (+3.9% year-over-year) and EPS of $6.35 (-0.1% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $9.9B in revenue.
06When does Constellation Brands, Inc. (STZ) report its next earnings?
Constellation Brands, Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-07-07. Consensus expects EPS of $3.24 and revenue of $2.4B. Over recent quarters, STZ has beaten EPS estimates 83% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Constellation Brands, Inc. generate?
Constellation Brands, Inc. (STZ) generated $1.8B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 18.8%. STZ returns capital to shareholders through dividends (2.9% yield) and share repurchases ($1.1B TTM).