Upside case
Bull case
$124+1374.9%
SUZ would need investors to value it at roughly 17x earnings — about 16x more generous than today's 1x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Suzano S.A. (SUZ) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
1
analysts
0 bullish · 0 bearish · 1 covering SUZ
Strong Buy
0
Buy
0
Hold
1
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$13
+59.7% vs today
Scenario Range
$59 – $124
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
1
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
1.2x
Forward P/E · Market cap $10.4B
SUZ price targets
Three scenarios for where SUZ stock could go
Current
~$8
Confidence
43 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $8
Bear
$59
Base
$94
Bull
$124
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$94+1019.3%
At 13x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$59+605.2%
The bear case assumes sentiment or fundamentals disappoint enough to push SUZ down roughly 605% from the current price.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Suzano S.A.
SUZ · NYSEBasic MaterialsPaper, Lumber & Forest ProductsDecember year-end
Suzano is the world's largest producer of eucalyptus pulp and a major manufacturer of paper products. It generates revenue primarily from pulp sales (~70% of revenue) and paper products (~30%), with additional income from power generation and port operations. The company's key advantage is its massive, vertically integrated eucalyptus plantations in Brazil — which provide low-cost, sustainable fiber with industry-leading scale and productivity.
Market Cap
$10.4B
Revenue TTM
$49.7B
Net Income TTM
$11.4B
Net Margin
22.9%
SUZ Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
40%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
50%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+38.7%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 2 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.71/$0.25
Revenue
$2.4B/$2.4B
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.29/$0.32
Revenue
$2.3B/$2.3B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.02/$-0.09
Revenue
$2.5B/$2.3B
Q2 2026
EPS
$0.66/$0.67
Revenue
$2.2B/$2.3B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.71/$0.25 | +185.0% | $2.4B/$2.4B | +3.9% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.29/$0.32 | -10.3% | $2.3B/$2.3B | -0.8% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.02/$-0.09 | +123.0% | $2.5B/$2.3B | +10.1% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.66/$0.67 | -0.9% | $2.2B/$2.3B | -3.6% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$55.0B
+10.6% YoY
FY2
$61.7B
+12.2% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$10.22
+11.3% YoY
FY2
$11.74
+14.9% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$4.2B
FCF Margin: 8.4%
Next Earnings
August 5, 2026
Expected EPS
$0.23
Expected Revenue
$2.6B
SUZ beat EPS estimates in 2 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
SUZ Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $100.2B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Total of products
50.0%
+5.7% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Asia
44.1%
+14.2% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Total of products is the largest disclosed segment at 50.0% of FY 2025 revenue, up 5.7% YoY.
Asia is the largest reported region at 44.1%, up 14.2% YoY.
SUZ Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Limited: Cheap versus peers
Fair value est. $144 — implies +1610.6% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
1610.6%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
SUZ
4.0x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
83% discount
vs Basic Materials Trailing P/E
SUZ
4.0x
vs
Basic Materials
23.6x
83% discount
vs SUZ 5Y Avg P/E
Today
4.0x
vs
5Y Average
1.0x
+290% premium
Forward PE
1.2x
S&P 500
18.8x
-94%
Basic Materials
14.9x
-92%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
4.0x
S&P 500
24.4x
-83%
Basic Materials
23.6x
-83%
5Y Avg
1.0x
+290%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.66x
—
Basic Materials
1.23x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
6.5x
S&P 500
15.2x
-57%
Basic Materials
11.0x
-41%
5Y Avg
4.0x
+62%
Price/FCF
9.6x
S&P 500
20.7x
-54%
Basic Materials
29.0x
-67%
5Y Avg
2.1x
+360%
Price/Sales
1.1x
S&P 500
3.1x
-65%
Basic Materials
1.9x
-43%
5Y Avg
0.3x
+265%
Dividend Yield
4.06%
S&P 500
1.91%
+112%
Basic Materials
1.41%
+189%
5Y Avg
10.49%
-61%
| Metric | SUZ | S&P 500 | Basic Materials | 5Y Avg SUZ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 1.2x | 18.8x-94% | 14.9x-92% | — |
| Trailing PE | 4.0x | 24.4x-83% | 23.6x-83% | 1.0x+290% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.66x | 1.23x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.5x | 15.2x-57% | 11.0x-41% | 4.0x+62% |
| Price/FCF | 9.6x | 20.7x-54% | 29.0x-67% | 2.1x+360% |
| Price/Sales | 1.1x | 3.1x-65% | 1.9x-43% | 0.3x+265% |
| Dividend Yield | 4.06% | 1.91% | 1.41% | 10.49% |
SUZ trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 0 of 5 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolSUZ Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
SUZ generates $4.2B in free cash flow at a 8.4% margin — returns 4.4% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$49.7B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+0.5%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
31.1%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
19.2%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
22.9%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$9.19
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$4.2B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
8.4%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
6.3%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
6.9%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$15.2B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$91.1B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
21.7× FCF
~21.7 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE *
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
25.2%
* Elevated by buyback-compressed equity — compare ROIC (6.3%) for an undistorted picture of capital efficiency.
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
4.4%
Dividend
4.1%
Buyback
0.4%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$188M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$1.75
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
16.5%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
1.2B
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt). ROE marked * where buyback-compressed equity base may inflate the figure.
Open full ratios pageSUZ Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
High Risk
Valuation de-rating
Bear case price target of $16 suggests significant downside risk compared to base and bull scenarios, indicating potential valuation concerns.
Medium
Earnings volatility
Scenario-based price targets derived from forward EPS estimates highlight sensitivity to earnings performance under varying growth conditions.
Lower
Market sentiment risk
Hold rating and consensus target imply cautious analyst sentiment, which could limit upside momentum.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why SUZ Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Bull case price target
The bull case scenario for Suzano S.A. projects a 12-month price target of $115, derived from applying the median historical P/E ratio to forward EPS estimates under favorable growth conditions.
Strong SEC filings history
Suzano has a comprehensive SEC filing history available through 2026, including annual and quarterly reports, providing transparency and detailed financial data for investors.
Bullish investor thesis
A bullish thesis on Suzano S.A. has been highlighted in a Value Investing subreddit, suggesting positive sentiment and potential upside among value-oriented investors.
Real-time stock data
Detailed stock overviews, including real-time pricing and key statistics, are available for Suzano, aiding investors in making informed decisions.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
SUZ Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$8.39
52W Range Position
13%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$7.92
+5.9% from the low
52-Week High
$11.54
-27.3% from the high
1 Month
+0.24%
3 Month
-16.27%
YTD
-11.9%
1 Year
-12.3%
3Y CAGR
-5.1%
5Y CAGR
-5.7%
10Y CAGR
+7.8%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
SUZ vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
1.2x
vs 22.1x median
-95% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+10.6%
vs +1.8% median
+476% above peer median
Net Margin
22.9%
vs -1.8% median
+1403% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SUZ SUZ Suzano S.A. | $10.4B | 1.2x | +10.6% | 22.9% | Hold | +59.7% |
IP IP International Paper Company | $19.5B | 26.1x | +6.7% | -13.4% | Buy | +27.0% |
PKG PKG Packaging Corporation of America | $20.4B | 22.1x | +6.9% | 8.6% | Hold | +9.9% |
CLW CLW Clearwater Paper Corporation | $271M | — | +1.5% | -1.8% | Buy | -7.7% |
MER MERC Mercer International Inc. | $58M | — | -7.3% | -28.5% | Hold | +161.9% |
GPK GPK Graphic Packaging Holding Company | $3.2B | 12.6x | +1.8% | 3.2% | Buy | +13.9% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
SUZ Dividend and Capital Return
SUZ returns 4.4% total yield, led by a 4.06% dividend.
Dividend SustainableFCF Adequate
Total Shareholder Yield
4.4%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.4%
Dividend Yield
4.06%
Payout Ratio
16.5%
How SUZ Splits Its Return
Div 4.06%
Dividend 4.06%Buybacks 0.4%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$1.75
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
-28.9%
5Y Div CAGR
31.9%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Semi-Annual
2 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$188M
Estimated Shares Retired
22M
Approx. Share Reduction
1.8%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
1.2B
At 1.8%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.00 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $0.21 | -35.7% | 1.6% | 20.3% |
| 2024 | $0.33 | +38.3% | 21.9% | 34.6% |
| 2023 | $0.24 | -59.5% | 6.0% | 6.0% |
| 2022 | $0.59 | — | 15.5% | 49.3% |
FAQ
7 questionsSUZ Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Suzano S.A. (SUZ) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Suzano S.A. (SUZ) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 1 analysts covering the stock, 0 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 1 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $13, implying +59.7% from the current price of $8. The bear case scenario is $59 and the bull case is $124.
02What is the SUZ stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for SUZ is $13 based on 1 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $13 (+59.7% from today), and the low-end target is $13 (+59.7%). The base case model target is $94.
03Is Suzano S.A. (SUZ) stock overvalued in 2026?
SUZ trades at 1.2x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals limited: cheap versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Suzano S.A. (SUZ) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for SUZ in 2026 are: (1) Valuation de-rating — Bear case price target of $16 suggests significant downside risk compared to base and bull scenarios, indicating potential valuation concerns. (2) Earnings volatility — Scenario-based price targets derived from forward EPS estimates highlight sensitivity to earnings performance under varying growth conditions. (3) Market sentiment risk — Hold rating and consensus target imply cautious analyst sentiment, which could limit upside momentum. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Suzano S.A.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates SUZ will report consensus revenue of $55.0B (+10.6% year-over-year) and EPS of $10.22 (+11.3% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $61.7B in revenue.
06When does Suzano S.A. (SUZ) report its next earnings?
Suzano S.A. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-08-05. Consensus expects EPS of $0.23 and revenue of $2.6B. Over recent quarters, SUZ has beaten EPS estimates 40% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Suzano S.A. generate?
Suzano S.A. (SUZ) generated $4.2B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 8.4%. SUZ returns capital to shareholders through dividends (4.1% yield) and share repurchases ($188M TTM).