Upside case
Bull case
$397+75.1%
PKG would need investors to value it at roughly 39x earnings — about 17x more generous than today's 22x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated May 1, 2026
Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
26
analysts
8 bullish · 2 bearish · 26 covering PKG
Strong Buy
0
Buy
8
Hold
16
Sell
2
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$245
+8.0% vs today
Scenario Range
$195 – $397
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
26
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
22.0x
Forward P/E · Market cap $20.2B
PKG price targets
Three scenarios for where PKG stock could go
Current
~$227
Confidence
60 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $227
Bear
$195
Base
$274
Bull
$397
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$274+21.0%
At 27x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$195-14.1%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 3x multiple contraction could push PKG down roughly 14% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Packaging Corporation of America
PKG · NYSEConsumer CyclicalPackaging & ContainersDecember year-end
Packaging Corporation of America is a leading manufacturer of containerboard and corrugated packaging products in the United States. It generates revenue primarily through its Packaging segment — which produces shipping containers and retail displays — and its Paper segment that makes commodity and specialty papers. The company benefits from vertical integration across its mills and converting plants, creating cost advantages and supply chain control in a capital-intensive industry.
Market Cap
$20.2B
Revenue TTM
$9.0B
Net Income TTM
$773M
Net Margin
8.6%
PKG Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
58%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+5.1%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 2 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$2.48/$2.44
Revenue
$2.2B/$2.2B
Q4 2025
EPS
$2.73/$2.82
Revenue
$2.3B/$2.3B
Q1 2026
EPS
$2.32/$2.41
Revenue
$2.4B/$2.4B
Q2 2026
EPS
$2.40/$2.17
Revenue
$2.4B/$2.4B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $2.48/$2.44 | +1.6% | $2.2B/$2.2B | -0.8% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.73/$2.82 | -3.2% | $2.3B/$2.3B | +0.4% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.32/$2.41 | -3.7% | $2.4B/$2.4B | -3.0% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.40/$2.17 | +10.6% | $2.4B/$2.4B | -2.4% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$9.6B
+6.6% YoY
FY2
$10.1B
+5.1% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$9.54
+10.6% YoY
FY2
$10.38
+8.8% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$729M
FCF Margin: 8.1%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
PKG beat EPS estimates in 2 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
PKG Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $9.0B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Packaging
92.3%
+7.8% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Foreign Operations
100.0%
YoY unavailable
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Packaging is the largest disclosed segment at 92.3% of FY 2025 revenue, up 7.8% YoY.
Foreign Operations is the largest reported region at 100.0%, with no year-over-year comparison yet.
PKG Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Overvalued
Fair value est. $139 — implies -36.1% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
36.1%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
PKG
26.4x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
In line with benchmark
vs Consumer Cyclical Trailing P/E
PKG
26.4x
vs
Consumer Cyclical
19.6x
+35% premium
vs PKG 5Y Avg P/E
Today
26.4x
vs
5Y Average
19.1x
+38% premium
Forward PE
22.0x
S&P 500
19.1x
+15%
Consumer Cyclical
15.2x
+45%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
26.4x
S&P 500
25.2x
+5%
Consumer Cyclical
19.6x
+35%
5Y Avg
19.1x
+38%
PEG Ratio
2.19x
S&P 500
1.75x
+25%
Consumer Cyclical
0.95x
+130%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
12.6x
S&P 500
15.3x
-17%
Consumer Cyclical
11.4x
+11%
5Y Avg
10.5x
+20%
Price/FCF
27.8x
S&P 500
21.3x
+30%
Consumer Cyclical
15.0x
+85%
5Y Avg
25.0x
+11%
Price/Sales
2.3x
S&P 500
3.1x
-28%
Consumer Cyclical
0.7x
+216%
5Y Avg
1.9x
+20%
Dividend Yield
2.21%
S&P 500
1.88%
+18%
Consumer Cyclical
2.15%
+3%
5Y Avg
2.85%
-22%
| Metric | PKG | S&P 500 | Consumer Cyclical | 5Y Avg PKG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 22.0x | 19.1x+15% | 15.2x+45% | — |
| Trailing PE | 26.4x | 25.2x | 19.6x+35% | 19.1x+38% |
| PEG Ratio | 2.19x | 1.75x+25% | 0.95x+130% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.6x | 15.3x-17% | 11.4x+11% | 10.5x+20% |
| Price/FCF | 27.8x | 21.3x+30% | 15.0x+85% | 25.0x+11% |
| Price/Sales | 2.3x | 3.1x-28% | 0.7x+216% | 1.9x+20% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.21% | 1.88% | 2.15% | 2.85% |
PKG trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 3 of 6 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolPKG Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
PKG generates $729M in free cash flow at a 8.1% margin — 12.6% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 3.0% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$9.0B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+7.2%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
21.0%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
13.6%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
8.6%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$8.63
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$729M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
8.1%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
12.6%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
7.7%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$529M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$3.8B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
5.3× FCF
~5.3 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
16.7%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
3.0%
Dividend
2.2%
Buyback
0.8%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$153M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$5.02
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
58.5%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
89M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pagePKG Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Input Cost Volatility
Fluctuations in the prices of raw materials like wood fiber, recycled paper, and energy significantly impact mill margins and working capital. This volatility can lead to unpredictable financial performance and increased operational costs.
High Risk
Supply Chain Disruptions
Vulnerabilities in the supply chain, including raw material cost swings and geopolitical events, can lead to production delays and increased expenses. Such disruptions can severely affect the company's ability to meet customer demands and maintain profitability.
High Risk
Demand Fluctuations
Economic downturns can reduce demand for packaging materials, impacting revenue and profitability due to lower sales volumes. A significant decline in demand could lead to excess inventory and increased operational inefficiencies.
High Risk
Cost Inflation
Rising operating costs, including maintenance, freight, and labor, can weigh on earnings. If these costs continue to rise without a corresponding increase in prices, profit margins may be severely impacted.
Medium
Competitive Pressure
Intense competition in the packaging industry can lead to pricing pressure and affect market share. This competitive landscape may force the company to lower prices, impacting overall profitability.
Medium
Technological Disruption
Failure to adapt quickly to new innovations in packaging and automation introduced by competitors could lead to a loss of market share. Staying ahead in technology is crucial for maintaining competitive advantage.
Medium
Regulatory and Environmental Compliance
Costs associated with meeting legislative or regulatory requirements, particularly concerning environmental matters, can increase expenses. Non-compliance could also lead to legal penalties and reputational damage.
Lower
Integration Risks
Challenges in integrating newly acquired businesses, such as the Greif containerboard business, can lead to operational issues and financial losses if not managed effectively. Successful integration is critical for realizing the expected synergies from acquisitions.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why PKG Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Robust Operational Performance
PKG is experiencing strong operational performance, with increased bookings and daily billings. The company is operating at full capacity, indicating a robust demand environment.
Strategic Acquisitions
The acquisition of Greif's containerboard assets is expected to enhance PKG's scale and operational efficiency. Ongoing improvements from this acquisition are already yielding significant gains in operational efficiency.
Price Increases and Capacity Utilization
PKG is set to benefit from planned price increases and is operating at full capacity, which reflects strong demand.
Growth Potential and Market Position
PKG is the third-largest containerboard and corrugated packaging manufacturer in the United States, with a focus on smaller customers and operational flexibility. The company is well-positioned to capture a significant plastic-to-fiber conversion opportunity through its innovative products.
Financial Strength and Shareholder Returns
PKG has a history of returning cash to shareholders and generates substantial free cash flow. The company's dividend payout ratio is considered healthy and sustainable.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
PKG Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$226.82
52W Range Position
68%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$178.30
+27.2% from the low
52-Week High
$249.51
-9.1% from the high
1 Month
+10.43%
3 Month
-5.04%
YTD
+7.4%
1 Year
+25.9%
3Y CAGR
+18.6%
5Y CAGR
+8.2%
10Y CAGR
+13.3%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
PKG vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
22.0x
vs 12.8x median
+72% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+6.6%
vs +1.8% median
+269% above peer median
Net Margin
8.6%
vs 3.2% median
+172% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PKG PKG Packaging Corporation of America | $20.2B | 22.0x | +6.6% | 8.6% | Hold | +8.0% |
IP IP International Paper Company | $17.7B | 22.1x | +14.5% | -13.4% | Buy | +38.4% |
GPK GPK Graphic Packaging Holding Company | $3.3B | 13.2x | -1.2% | 3.2% | Buy | +12.5% |
SON SON Sonoco Products Company | $5.2B | 8.9x | +19.9% | 13.8% | Buy | +12.8% |
CLW CLW Clearwater Paper Corporation | $229M | — | +1.8% | -1.8% | Buy | +8.9% |
SEE SEE Sealed Air Corporation | $6.2B | 12.4x | -0.3% | 9.4% | Buy | +3.2% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
PKG Dividend and Capital Return
PKG returns 3.0% total yield, led by a 2.21% dividend. Buybacks add another 0.8%.
Dividend SustainableFCF Adequate
Total Shareholder Yield
3.0%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.8%
Dividend Yield
2.21%
Payout Ratio
58.5%
How PKG Splits Its Return
Div 2.21%
Buyback 0.8%
Dividend 2.21%Buybacks 0.8%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$5.02
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
1Y
3Y Div CAGR
1.7%
5Y Div CAGR
8.2%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$153M
Estimated Shares Retired
674.5K
Approx. Share Reduction
0.8%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
89M
At 0.8%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $1.25 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $5.00 | 0.0% | 0.8% | 3.3% |
| 2024 | $5.00 | 0.0% | 0.1% | 2.4% |
| 2023 | $5.00 | +5.3% | 0.4% | 3.5% |
| 2022 | $4.75 | +18.8% | 4.5% | 8.1% |
FAQ
7 questionsPKG Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 26 analysts covering the stock, 8 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 16 rate it Hold, and 2 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $245, implying +8.0% from the current price of $227. The bear case scenario is $195 and the bull case is $397.
02What is the PKG stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for PKG is $245 based on 26 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $258 (+13.7% from today), and the low-end target is $232 (+2.3%). The base case model target is $274.
03Is Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) stock overvalued in 2026?
PKG trades at 22.0x times forward earnings. The stock's valuation is broadly in line with the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly overvalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for PKG in 2026 are: (1) Input Cost Volatility — Fluctuations in the prices of raw materials like wood fiber, recycled paper, and energy significantly impact mill margins and working capital. (2) Supply Chain Disruptions — Vulnerabilities in the supply chain, including raw material cost swings and geopolitical events, can lead to production delays and increased expenses. (3) Demand Fluctuations — Economic downturns can reduce demand for packaging materials, impacting revenue and profitability due to lower sales volumes. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Packaging Corporation of America's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates PKG will report consensus revenue of $9.6B (+6.6% year-over-year) and EPS of $9.54 (+10.6% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $10.1B in revenue.
06When does Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for PKG is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Packaging Corporation of America generate?
Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) generated $729M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 8.1%. PKG returns capital to shareholders through dividends (2.2% yield) and share repurchases ($153M TTM).