Upside case
Bull case
$379+65.5%
PKG would need investors to value it at roughly 37x earnings — about 14x more generous than today's 22x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
26
analysts
10 bullish · 2 bearish · 26 covering PKG
Strong Buy
0
Buy
10
Hold
14
Sell
2
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$252
+9.9% vs today
Scenario Range
$181 – $379
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
26
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
22.1x
Forward P/E · Market cap $20.4B
PKG price targets
Three scenarios for where PKG stock could go
Current
~$229
Confidence
50 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $229
Bear
$181
Base
$288
Bull
$379
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$288+25.6%
At 28x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$181-20.9%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 5x multiple contraction could push PKG down roughly 21% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Packaging Corporation of America
PKG · NYSEConsumer CyclicalPackaging & ContainersDecember year-end
Packaging Corporation of America is a leading manufacturer of containerboard and corrugated packaging products in the United States. It generates revenue primarily through its Packaging segment — which produces shipping containers and retail displays — and its Paper segment that makes commodity and specialty papers. The company benefits from vertical integration across its mills and converting plants, creating cost advantages and supply chain control in a capital-intensive industry.
Market Cap
$20.4B
Revenue TTM
$9.0B
Net Income TTM
$773M
Net Margin
8.6%
PKG Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
58%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+5.1%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 2 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$2.48/$2.44
Revenue
$2.2B/$2.2B
Q4 2025
EPS
$2.73/$2.82
Revenue
$2.3B/$2.3B
Q1 2026
EPS
$2.32/$2.41
Revenue
$2.4B/$2.4B
Q2 2026
EPS
$2.40/$2.17
Revenue
$2.4B/$2.4B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $2.48/$2.44 | +1.6% | $2.2B/$2.2B | -0.8% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.73/$2.82 | -3.2% | $2.3B/$2.3B | +0.4% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.32/$2.41 | -3.7% | $2.4B/$2.4B | -3.0% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.40/$2.17 | +10.6% | $2.4B/$2.4B | -2.4% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$9.6B
+6.9% YoY
FY2
$10.3B
+7.4% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$9.69
+12.3% YoY
FY2
$10.81
+11.6% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$729M
FCF Margin: 8.1%
Next Earnings
July 22, 2026
Expected EPS
$2.36
Expected Revenue
$2.5B
PKG beat EPS estimates in 2 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
PKG Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $9.0B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Packaging
92.3%
+7.8% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Foreign Operations
100.0%
YoY unavailable
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Packaging is the largest disclosed segment at 92.3% of FY 2025 revenue, up 7.8% YoY.
Foreign Operations is the largest reported region at 100.0%, with no year-over-year comparison yet.
PKG Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Expensive versus peers
Fair value est. $122 — implies -46.7% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
46.7%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
PKG
26.7x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
+9% premium
vs Consumer Cyclical Trailing P/E
PKG
26.7x
vs
Consumer Cyclical
21.2x
+26% premium
vs PKG 5Y Avg P/E
Today
26.7x
vs
5Y Average
19.1x
+40% premium
Forward PE
22.1x
S&P 500
18.8x
+18%
Consumer Cyclical
16.3x
+35%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
26.7x
S&P 500
24.4x
+9%
Consumer Cyclical
21.2x
+26%
5Y Avg
19.1x
+40%
PEG Ratio
2.21x
S&P 500
1.66x
+33%
Consumer Cyclical
0.92x
+139%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
12.7x
S&P 500
15.2x
-16%
Consumer Cyclical
12.2x
+4%
5Y Avg
10.5x
+21%
Price/FCF
28.0x
S&P 500
20.7x
+35%
Consumer Cyclical
15.6x
+80%
5Y Avg
25.0x
+12%
Price/Sales
2.3x
S&P 500
3.1x
-26%
Consumer Cyclical
0.7x
+226%
5Y Avg
1.9x
+21%
Dividend Yield
2.19%
S&P 500
1.91%
+15%
Consumer Cyclical
2.17%
+1%
5Y Avg
2.85%
-23%
| Metric | PKG | S&P 500 | Consumer Cyclical | 5Y Avg PKG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 22.1x | 18.8x+18% | 16.3x+35% | — |
| Trailing PE | 26.7x | 24.4x | 21.2x+26% | 19.1x+40% |
| PEG Ratio | 2.21x | 1.66x+33% | 0.92x+139% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.7x | 15.2x-16% | 12.2x | 10.5x+21% |
| Price/FCF | 28.0x | 20.7x+35% | 15.6x+80% | 25.0x+12% |
| Price/Sales | 2.3x | 3.1x-26% | 0.7x+226% | 1.9x+21% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.19% | 1.91% | 2.17% | 2.85% |
PKG trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 3 of 6 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolPKG Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
PKG generates $729M in free cash flow at a 8.1% margin — 12.6% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 2.9% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$9.0B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+7.2%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
21.0%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
13.6%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
8.6%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$8.63
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$729M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
8.1%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
12.6%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
7.7%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$529M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$3.8B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
5.3× FCF
~5.3 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
16.7%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
2.9%
Dividend
2.2%
Buyback
0.7%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$153M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$5.02
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
58.5%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
89M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pagePKG Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
High Risk
Industry Consolidation
The packaging industry is consolidating, which may increase competition and pressure margins for Packaging Corporation of America.
Medium
Material Cost Volatility
Fluctuations in raw material costs could impact profitability, given the reliance on containerboard and corrugated packaging materials.
High Risk
Supply Chain Risks
Vertical integration provides advantages but also exposes the company to risks if any part of the supply chain is disrupted.
Medium
Demand Cyclicality
Demand for packaging is tied to economic cycles, making revenue susceptible to downturns.
Lower
Regulatory Compliance
Increasing environmental regulations on packaging materials could impose additional costs or operational constraints.
Medium
Competitive Pressures
Narrow moat indicates limited pricing power, with potential erosion from competitors in a fragmented market.
High Risk
Production Risks
Operational risks in production processes could lead to inefficiencies or downtime, impacting financial performance.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why PKG Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Orderly cycle recovery
The bull case anticipates a structured recovery in the packaging cycle, supporting demand and pricing stability.
Wider containerboard spreads
Expanding margins in containerboard production are expected to drive profitability and earnings growth.
Effective price pass-through
The company's ability to pass on cost increases to customers helps maintain margins and revenue growth.
Continued buybacks
Ongoing share repurchases are likely to support earnings per share (EPS) and shareholder returns.
Multiple expansion potential
Improved market sentiment and operational performance could lead to valuation multiple expansion.
Industrial grit and sophistication
PKG's blend of industrial resilience and high-margin operations positions it as a standout in the materials sector.
Defensive sector appeal
The packaging industry's essential nature provides defensive characteristics, appealing in uncertain markets.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
PKG Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$229.02
52W Range Position
68%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$184.76
+24.0% from the low
52-Week High
$249.51
-8.2% from the high
1 Month
+8.70%
3 Month
+9.36%
YTD
+8.5%
1 Year
+23.0%
3Y CAGR
+20.3%
5Y CAGR
+11.5%
10Y CAGR
+13.0%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
PKG vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
22.1x
vs 12.5x median
+77% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+6.9%
vs +1.8% median
+276% above peer median
Net Margin
8.6%
vs 3.2% median
+172% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PKG PKG Packaging Corporation of America | $20.4B | 22.1x | +6.9% | 8.6% | Hold | +9.9% |
IP IP International Paper Company | $19.5B | 26.1x | +6.7% | -13.4% | Buy | +27.0% |
GPK GPK Graphic Packaging Holding Company | $3.2B | 12.6x | +1.8% | 3.2% | Buy | +13.9% |
SON SON Sonoco Products Company | $5.0B | 8.7x | +6.9% | 13.8% | Buy | +16.4% |
CLW CLW Clearwater Paper Corporation | $271M | — | +1.5% | -1.8% | Buy | -7.7% |
SEE SEE Sealed Air Corporation | $6.2B | 12.4x | +0.2% | 9.4% | Buy | +18.4% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
PKG Dividend and Capital Return
PKG returns 2.9% total yield, led by a 2.19% dividend. Buybacks add another 0.7%.
Dividend SustainableFCF Adequate
Total Shareholder Yield
2.9%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.7%
Dividend Yield
2.19%
Payout Ratio
58.5%
How PKG Splits Its Return
Div 2.19%
Buyback 0.7%
Dividend 2.19%Buybacks 0.7%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$5.02
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
1.7%
5Y Div CAGR
8.2%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$153M
Estimated Shares Retired
668.1K
Approx. Share Reduction
0.7%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
89M
At 0.7%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $2.75 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $5.00 | 0.0% | 0.8% | 3.3% |
| 2024 | $5.00 | 0.0% | 0.1% | 2.4% |
| 2023 | $5.00 | +5.3% | 0.4% | 3.5% |
| 2022 | $4.75 | +18.8% | 4.5% | 8.1% |
FAQ
7 questionsPKG Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 26 analysts covering the stock, 10 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 14 rate it Hold, and 2 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $252, implying +9.9% from the current price of $229. The bear case scenario is $181 and the bull case is $379.
02What is the PKG stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for PKG is $252 based on 26 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $258 (+12.7% from today), and the low-end target is $245 (+7.0%). The base case model target is $288.
03Is Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) stock overvalued in 2026?
PKG trades at 22.1x times forward earnings. The stock's valuation is broadly in line with the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals expensive versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for PKG in 2026 are: (1) Industry Consolidation — The packaging industry is consolidating, which may increase competition and pressure margins for Packaging Corporation of America. (2) Supply Chain Risks — Vertical integration provides advantages but also exposes the company to risks if any part of the supply chain is disrupted. (3) Production Risks — Operational risks in production processes could lead to inefficiencies or downtime, impacting financial performance. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Packaging Corporation of America's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates PKG will report consensus revenue of $9.6B (+6.9% year-over-year) and EPS of $9.69 (+12.3% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $10.3B in revenue.
06When does Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) report its next earnings?
Packaging Corporation of America is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-07-22. Consensus expects EPS of $2.36 and revenue of $2.5B. Over recent quarters, PKG has beaten EPS estimates 75% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Packaging Corporation of America generate?
Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) generated $729M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 8.1%. PKG returns capital to shareholders through dividends (2.2% yield) and share repurchases ($153M TTM).