Upside case
Bull case
—
The bull case requires both strong earnings delivery and the market pricing IP more generously than it does today.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
International Paper Company (IP) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
29
analysts
14 bullish · 7 bearish · 29 covering IP
Strong Buy
0
Buy
14
Hold
8
Sell
7
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$47
+27.0% vs today
Scenario Range
— – —
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
29
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
26.1x
Forward P/E · Market cap $19.5B
IP price targets
Three scenarios for where IP stock could go
Current
~$37
Confidence
41 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
—
The base case reflects analyst consensus expectations — steady delivery without requiring a major catalyst or re-rating.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
International Paper Company
IP · NYSEConsumer CyclicalPackaging & ContainersDecember year-end
International Paper is a global packaging and pulp producer that manufactures containerboard for corrugated boxes and cellulose fibers for absorbent hygiene products. It generates revenue primarily from its Industrial Packaging segment — about 80% of sales — which produces containerboard and corrugated packaging, with the remaining 20% coming from Global Cellulose Fibers for fluff pulp used in diapers and other hygiene products. The company's competitive advantage lies in its massive scale, integrated manufacturing footprint, and strategic positioning near key customer markets, which creates significant cost advantages in a capital-intensive industry.
Market Cap
$19.5B
Revenue TTM
$25.0B
Net Income TTM
-$3.4B
Net Margin
-13.4%
IP Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
50%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
33%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
-33.5%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 1 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.20/$0.39
Revenue
$6.8B/$6.6B
Q4 2025
EPS
$-0.43/$0.47
Revenue
$6.2B/$6.7B
Q1 2026
EPS
$-0.08/$0.28
Revenue
$6.0B/$5.9B
Q2 2026
EPS
$0.15/$0.15
Revenue
$6.0B/$6.0B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.20/$0.39 | -48.5% | $6.8B/$6.6B | +1.8% |
| Q4 2025 | $-0.43/$0.47 | -191.8% | $6.2B/$6.7B | -7.5% |
| Q1 2026 | $-0.08/$0.28 | -128.6% | $6.0B/$5.9B | +1.6% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.15/$0.15 | +2.3% | $6.0B/$6.0B | -0.7% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$26.6B
+6.7% YoY
FY2
$28.0B
+5.1% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$-3.07
+51.3% YoY
FY2
$-1.68
+45.1% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$553M
FCF Margin: 2.2%
Next Earnings
July 30, 2026
Expected EPS
$-0.04
Expected Revenue
$6.2B
IP beat EPS estimates in 1 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
IP Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $23.6B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
61.1%
-11.4% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 61.1%, down 11.4% YoY.
IP Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Expensive versus peers
Fair value est. $10 — implies -71.7% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
71.7%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
IP
-5.5x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
122% discount
vs Consumer Cyclical Trailing P/E
IP
-5.5x
vs
Consumer Cyclical
21.2x
126% discount
vs IP 5Y Avg P/E
Today
-5.5x
vs
5Y Average
23.7x
123% discount
Forward PE
26.1x
S&P 500
18.8x
+39%
Consumer Cyclical
16.3x
+60%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
-5.5x
S&P 500
24.4x
-122%
Consumer Cyclical
21.2x
-126%
5Y Avg
23.7x
-123%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.66x
—
Consumer Cyclical
0.92x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
1388.3x
S&P 500
15.2x
+9027%
Consumer Cyclical
12.2x
+11297%
5Y Avg
8.7x
+15845%
Price/FCF
—
S&P 500
20.7x
—
Consumer Cyclical
15.6x
—
5Y Avg
16.5x
—
Price/Sales
0.8x
S&P 500
3.1x
-75%
Consumer Cyclical
0.7x
+12%
5Y Avg
0.8x
-4%
Dividend Yield
5.03%
S&P 500
1.91%
+163%
Consumer Cyclical
2.17%
+131%
5Y Avg
4.54%
+11%
| Metric | IP | S&P 500 | Consumer Cyclical | 5Y Avg IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 26.1x | 18.8x+39% | 16.3x+60% | — |
| Trailing PE | -5.5x | 24.4x-122% | 21.2x-126% | 23.7x-123% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.66x | 0.92x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 1388.3x | 15.2x+9027% | 12.2x+11297% | 8.7x+15845% |
| Price/FCF | — | 20.7x | 15.6x | 16.5x |
| Price/Sales | 0.8x | 3.1x-75% | 0.7x+12% | 0.8x |
| Dividend Yield | 5.03% | 1.91% | 2.17% | 4.54% |
IP trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 2 of 4 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolIP Financial Health
Verdict
Stressed
IP returns 5.4% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$25.0B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+25.5%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
27.8%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
-10.5%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
-13.4%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$-6.30
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$553M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
2.2%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
-11.3%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
-8.5%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$1.1B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$9.7B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
17.5× FCF
~17.5 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE *
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
-20.4%
* Elevated by buyback-compressed equity — compare ROIC (-11.3%) for an undistorted picture of capital efficiency.
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
5.4%
Dividend
5.0%
Buyback
0.3%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$65M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$1.85
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
529M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt). ROE marked * where buyback-compressed equity base may inflate the figure.
Open full ratios pageIP Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
High Risk
Weak margins and EBITDA
International Paper is downgraded to Sell due to weak margins and a lower EBITDA outlook, with 25% downside risk.
High Risk
Dividend and FCF strain
The dividend and free cash flow are under strain, with potential downside if box volumes remain weak through Q3 2026.
High Risk
North American market dependence
The company is heavily reliant on the North American corrugated packaging market, which faces risks from cost pressures, weak demand, and industry capacity additions.
Medium
Transformation execution risk
Investors should monitor progress on its multi-year transformation, including the spin-off of its EMEA packaging business, which carries execution risks.
Medium
Box volume weakness
If box volumes stay weak, the stock could test lower targets, with potential downside to $30.
Lower
Valuation containment
Downside is somewhat contained by the depressed multiple and deleveraging from the Global Cellulose Fibers sale.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why IP Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Investor Day Insights
The company's leadership shared strategic insights and updates with investors and analysts, signaling transparency and potential growth initiatives.
Strong Industry Positioning
Operating in the Consumer Cyclical sector with a focus on Packaging & Containers, International Paper is well-positioned in a critical industry.
Analyst Coverage and Forecasts
Detailed stock forecasts and analyst price target predictions indicate confidence in the company's future revenue and earnings potential.
Innovation and Progress
The company's history of innovation and dedication to driving progress suggests a commitment to staying competitive and evolving with market demands.
Market and News Coverage
Frequent updates and coverage in financial and news platforms highlight the company's relevance and visibility in the market.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
IP Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$36.82
52W Range Position
28%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$29.26
+25.8% from the low
52-Week High
$56.13
-34.4% from the high
1 Month
+21.12%
3 Month
+2.56%
YTD
-8.5%
1 Year
-20.2%
3Y CAGR
+5.3%
5Y CAGR
-8.1%
10Y CAGR
-0.9%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
IP vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
26.1x
vs 16.0x median
+63% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+6.7%
vs +6.9% median
-3% below peer median
Net Margin
-13.4%
vs 3.2% median
-524% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
IP IP International Paper Company | $19.5B | 26.1x | +6.7% | -13.4% | Buy | +27.0% |
PKG PKG Packaging Corporation of America | $20.4B | 22.1x | +6.9% | 8.6% | Hold | +9.9% |
GPK GPK Graphic Packaging Holding Company | $3.2B | 12.6x | +1.8% | 3.2% | Buy | +13.9% |
SON SON Sonoco Products Company | $5.0B | 8.7x | +6.9% | 13.8% | Buy | +16.4% |
CLW CLW Clearwater Paper Corporation | $271M | — | +1.5% | -1.8% | Buy | -7.7% |
RKT RKT Rocket Companies, Inc. | $40.7B | 19.5x | +20.3% | 2.8% | Hold | +50.0% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
IP Dividend and Capital Return
IP returns 5.4% total yield, led by a 5.03% dividend.
Dividend UnknownFCF Stretched
Total Shareholder Yield
5.4%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.3%
Dividend Yield
5.03%
Payout Ratio
—
How IP Splits Its Return
Div 5.03%
Dividend 5.03%Buybacks 0.3%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$1.85
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
0.0%
5Y Div CAGR
-1.0%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
5 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$65M
Estimated Shares Retired
2M
Approx. Share Reduction
0.3%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
529M
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $1.39 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $1.85 | 0.0% | 0.3% | 5.0% |
| 2024 | $1.85 | 0.0% | 0.1% | 3.5% |
| 2023 | $1.85 | 0.0% | 1.7% | 6.8% |
| 2022 | $1.85 | -3.6% | 10.1% | 15.4% |
FAQ
7 questionsIP Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is International Paper Company (IP) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
International Paper Company (IP) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 29 analysts covering the stock, 14 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 8 rate it Hold, and 7 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $47, implying +27.0% from the current price of $37.
02What is the IP stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for IP is $47 based on 29 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $60 (+63.0% from today), and the low-end target is $39 (+5.9%).
03Is International Paper Company (IP) stock overvalued in 2026?
IP trades at 26.1x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals expensive versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for International Paper Company (IP) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for IP in 2026 are: (1) Weak margins and EBITDA — International Paper is downgraded to Sell due to weak margins and a lower EBITDA outlook, with 25% downside risk. (2) Dividend and FCF strain — The dividend and free cash flow are under strain, with potential downside if box volumes remain weak through Q3 2026. (3) North American market dependence — The company is heavily reliant on the North American corrugated packaging market, which faces risks from cost pressures, weak demand, and industry capacity additions. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is International Paper Company's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates IP will report consensus revenue of $26.6B (+6.7% year-over-year) and EPS of $-3.07 (+51.3% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $28.0B in revenue.
06When does International Paper Company (IP) report its next earnings?
International Paper Company is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-07-30. Consensus expects EPS of $-0.04 and revenue of $6.2B. Over recent quarters, IP has beaten EPS estimates 50% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does International Paper Company generate?
International Paper Company (IP) generated $553M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 2.2%. IP returns capital to shareholders through dividends (5.0% yield) and share repurchases ($65M TTM).