Suzano S.A. (SUZ) Cash Flow Statement

The massive gap between net income and operating cash flow in quarters like 2024Q4 (NI -$6.7B vs. OCF $6.2B) and 2025Q4 (NI $110.9M vs. OCF $5.4B) indicates that the bottom line is not a reliable indicator of cash generation. This pattern is consistent with the known accounting complexities in the sector, where non-cash adjustments can overwhelm operational performance. Investors should focus on the operating cash flow trend, which has remained robustly positive, rather than the volatile net income figure.

The FCF margin has swung from -12.6% to 19.3% over the past ten quarters, demonstrating that Suzano's cash generation is not a smooth trajectory but is heavily influenced by the timing of major mill projects. The negative FCF in 2026Q1 (-0.9%) despite positive operating cash flow highlights how a single quarter of elevated capex can overwhelm cash generation. This volatility complicates forecasting and suggests the company's investment cycle is a primary driver of near-term cash flow.

The high and variable capex-to-revenue ratio, which has averaged over 18% across the period, underscores the capital-intensive nature of Suzano's business model. The significant spikes in spending, such as the $4.3B in 2024Q2 and $3.4B in 2025Q3, appear to correspond with large-scale capacity expansions. This pattern suggests that maintenance capex is being overshadowed by growth investments, which will pressure free cash flow in the near term but may lower the long-term cost curve.

The erratic working capital movements, which have contributed over $1B in both inflows and outflows within single quarters, add significant noise to the operating cash flow figure. This volatility may reflect the timing of large pulp shipments and collections from global customers, or inventory builds ahead of planned downtime. The lack of a clear, efficient trend in working capital management suggests an area where operational discipline could be improved to stabilize cash flows.

The company has consistently paid dividends, with a notable $2.2B outflow in 2025Q1, alongside periodic debt reduction efforts. This pattern suggests a capital allocation framework that prioritizes returning cash to shareholders and deleveraging, which is appropriate given the company's high debt-to-equity ratio of 2.42. However, this commitment limits the financial flexibility available for opportunistic investments or weathering prolonged periods of low pulp prices.