TFPM trades 29.0% below Wall Street's consensus target of $39.50.
Last 12 months price action with 12-month analyst target path
The base valuation assumes TFPM achieves its forward estimates and maintains a stable P/E multiple of 22.5x. This scenario reflects the blended consensus of 4 Wall Street analysts, balancing both positive catalysts and macroeconomic headwinds over the next 12 months.
As of October 3, 2026, Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp. (TFPM) has a Wall Street consensus price target of $39.50, based on estimates from 4 covering analysts. With the stock currently trading at $30.61, this represents a potential upside of +29.0%. The company has a market capitalization of $6.32B.
Analyst price targets range from a low of $39.00 to a high of $40.00, representing a 3% spread in expectations. The median target of $39.50 aligns closely with the consensus average. The tight target dispersion indicates high conviction among analysts.
The current analyst consensus rating is Buy, with 2 analysts rating the stock as a Buy or Strong Buy,2 rating it Hold, and 0 rating it Sell or Strong Sell. The positive sentiment balance indicates moderate optimism about the stock prospects.
From a valuation perspective, TFPM trades at a trailing P/E of 25.5x and forward P/E of 22.5x. The forward PEG ratio of 0.83 suggests the stock may be undervalued relative to its growth. Analysts expect EPS to grow -31.7% over the next year.
Our proprietary valuation model, which blends historical multiples with forward estimates, suggests a base-case price target of $20.06, with bear and bull scenarios of $12.64 and $26.44 respectively. Model confidence stands at 50/100, reflecting moderate uncertainty in projections.
| Company | Market Cap | Price | Target | Upside Potential | Rating | Fwd P/E | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 WPMWheaton Precious Metals Corp. | $61.9B | $136.28 | $164.80 | +20.9% | Buy | 28.8x | 20 |
 RGLDRoyal Gold, Inc. | $19.9B | $234.64 | $301.50 | +28.5% | Buy | 22.5x | 28 |
 FNVFranco-Nevada Corporation | $46.2B | $239.30 | $275.00 | +14.9% | Buy | 28.5x | 26 |
 OROR Royalties Inc. | $6.5B | $34.47 | $40.33 | +17.0% | Buy | 19.2x | 9 |
 EMXEMX Royalty Corporation | $453M | $4.16 | $5.75 | +38.2% | Buy | 45.0x | 1 |
 GROYGold Royalty Corp. | $711M | $2.97 | $6.75 | +127.3% | Buy | 61.7x | 6 |
 NEMNewmont Corporation | $121.8B | $115.56 | $136.83 | +18.4% | Buy | 12.2x | 37 |
 AEMAgnico Eagle Mines Limited | $93.0B | $183.69 | $218.83 | +19.1% | Buy | 15.7x | 31 |
 KGCKinross Gold Corporation | $28.7B | $24.06 | $39.20 | +62.9% | Buy | 9.5x | 29 |
 AGFirst Majestic Silver Corp. | $8.7B | $17.67 | $24.75 | +40.1% | Hold | 22.0x | 11 |
Quick answers to the most common questions about buying TFPM stock.
The consensus Wall Street price target for TFPM is $39.5, representing 29.0% upside from the current price of $30.61. With 4 analysts covering the stock, this strong upside suggests significant value not yet reflected in today's share price.
TFPM has a consensus rating of "Buy" based on 4 Wall Street analysts. The rating breakdown is mixed, with 2 Hold ratings making up the largest segment. The consensus 12-month price target of $39.5 implies 29.0% upside from current levels.
TFPM trades at a forward P/E of 22.5455x, representing a moderate valuation. With analysts targeting $39.5 (29.0% implied move), the stock appears reasonably valued with upside.
The most bullish Wall Street analyst has a price target of $40 for TFPM, while the most conservative target is $39. The consensus of $39.5 represents the median expectation. Our quantitative valuation model projects a bull case target of $26 based on optimistic growth and margin assumptions. These targets typically reflect 12-month expectations.
TFPM is lightly followed, with 4 analysts providing price targets and ratings. Of these, 0 have Strong Buy ratings, 2 have Buy ratings, 2 recommend Hold, and 0 have Sell or Strong Sell ratings. Higher analyst coverage generally indicates greater institutional interest and more reliable consensus estimates.
The 12-month TFPM stock forecast based on 4 Wall Street analysts shows a consensus price target of $39.5, with estimates ranging from $39 (bear case) to $40 (bull case). The median consensus rating is "Buy". Our proprietary valuation model produces a base case fair value of $20, with bear/bull scenarios of $13/$26.
Our quantitative valuation model calculates TFPM's fair value at $20 (base case), with a bear case of $13 and bull case of $26. The model uses discounted cash flow analysis, historical growth rates, and margin mean-reversion to project FY+2 earnings, then applies an appropriate P/E multiple. The model confidence score is 50/100.
TFPM trades at a forward P/E ratio of 22.5x based on next-twelve-months earnings estimates compared to a trailing P/E of 25.5x. The lower forward P/E indicates analysts expect earnings growth. A forward P/E is useful for comparing valuations when earnings are expected to change significantly.
Wall Street analysts are very optimistic on TFPM, with a "Buy" consensus rating and $39.5 price target (29.0% upside). 2 of 4 analysts rate it Buy or Strong Buy. This information is for educational purposes only. Always conduct your own research, consider your financial situation, and consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
TFPM analyst price targets range from $39 to $40, a 3% tight range reflecting strong analyst consensus. Differences stem from varying assumptions about revenue growth, profit margins, competitive dynamics, and valuation multiples. The $39.5 consensus represents the middle ground. Our model's $13-$26 range provides an independent fundamental perspective.
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