Upside case
Bull case
$181+52.6%
XYL would need investors to value it at roughly 33x earnings — about 11x more generous than today's 21x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated May 1, 2026
Xylem Inc. (XYL) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
40
analysts
18 bullish · 1 bearish · 40 covering XYL
Strong Buy
0
Buy
18
Hold
21
Sell
1
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$152
+27.8% vs today
Scenario Range
$69 – $181
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
40
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
21.4x
Forward P/E · Market cap $28.2B
XYL price targets
Three scenarios for where XYL stock could go
Current
~$119
Confidence
67 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $119
Bear
$69
Base
$166
Bull
$181
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$166+39.7%
At 30x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$69-41.7%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 9x multiple contraction could push XYL down roughly 42% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Xylem Inc.
XYL · NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - MachineryDecember year-end
Xylem is a global water technology company that designs, manufactures, and services engineered products and solutions for water and wastewater applications. It generates revenue through three main segments: Water Infrastructure (~45% of sales), Applied Water (~35%), and Measurement & Control Solutions (~20%), selling pumps, treatment equipment, smart meters, and related services. The company's competitive advantage lies in its comprehensive portfolio of trusted brands—Flygt, Godwin, Goulds, and others—and deep technical expertise across the entire water cycle, creating high switching costs for utilities and industrial customers.
Market Cap
$28.2B
Revenue TTM
$9.1B
Net Income TTM
$973M
Net Margin
10.7%
XYL Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+6.5%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$1.26/$1.15
Revenue
$2.3B/$2.2B
Q4 2025
EPS
$1.37/$1.23
Revenue
$2.3B/$2.2B
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.42/$1.41
Revenue
$2.4B/$2.4B
Q2 2026
EPS
$1.12/$1.09
Revenue
$2.1B/$2.1B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $1.26/$1.15 | +9.6% | $2.3B/$2.2B | +4.2% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.37/$1.23 | +11.4% | $2.3B/$2.2B | +2.0% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.42/$1.41 | +0.7% | $2.4B/$2.4B | +1.1% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.12/$1.09 | +2.8% | $2.1B/$2.1B | +0.7% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$9.7B
+6.5% YoY
FY2
$10.6B
+9.2% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$5.02
+25.7% YoY
FY2
$5.47
+9.0% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$966M
FCF Margin: 10.6%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
XYL beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
XYL Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $6.6B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Water Infrastructure
40.1%
+3.2% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
57.7%
+7.1% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Water Infrastructure is the largest disclosed segment at 40.1% of FY 2025 revenue, up 3.2% YoY.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 57.7%, up 7.1% YoY.
XYL Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Fairly Valued
Fair value est. $115 — implies -0.0% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
0.0%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
XYL
30.3x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
+20% premium
vs Industrials Trailing P/E
XYL
30.3x
vs
Industrials
25.9x
+17% premium
vs XYL 5Y Avg P/E
Today
30.3x
vs
5Y Average
43.0x
30% discount
Forward PE
21.4x
S&P 500
19.1x
+12%
Industrials
20.8x
+3%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
30.3x
S&P 500
25.2x
+20%
Industrials
25.9x
+17%
5Y Avg
43.0x
-30%
PEG Ratio
1.32x
S&P 500
1.75x
-24%
Industrials
1.59x
-17%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
15.9x
S&P 500
15.3x
+4%
Industrials
13.9x
+15%
5Y Avg
22.7x
-30%
Price/FCF
31.0x
S&P 500
21.3x
+45%
Industrials
20.6x
+50%
5Y Avg
45.6x
-32%
Price/Sales
3.1x
S&P 500
3.1x
-0%
Industrials
1.6x
+96%
5Y Avg
3.6x
-14%
Dividend Yield
1.35%
S&P 500
1.88%
-28%
Industrials
1.24%
+9%
5Y Avg
1.13%
+20%
| Metric | XYL | S&P 500 | Industrials | 5Y Avg XYL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 21.4x | 19.1x+12% | 20.8x | — |
| Trailing PE | 30.3x | 25.2x+20% | 25.9x+17% | 43.0x-30% |
| PEG Ratio | 1.32x | 1.75x-24% | 1.59x-17% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 15.9x | 15.3x | 13.9x+15% | 22.7x-30% |
| Price/FCF | 31.0x | 21.3x+45% | 20.6x+50% | 45.6x-32% |
| Price/Sales | 3.1x | 3.1x | 1.6x+96% | 3.6x-14% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.35% | 1.88% | 1.24% | 1.13% |
XYL trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 3 of 6 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolXYL Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
XYL generates $966M in free cash flow at a 10.6% margin — returns 1.4% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$9.1B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+5.7%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
38.6%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
13.6%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
10.7%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$4.00
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$966M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
10.6%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
7.6%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
5.6%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$1.5B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$463M
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
0.5× FCF
~0.5 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
8.5%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
1.4%
Dividend
1.4%
Buyback
0.1%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$15M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$1.60
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
40.9%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
238M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageXYL Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Valuation Premium Risk
Xylem’s shares may be trading at a premium relative to peers, leaving little margin for error if earnings or revenue miss expectations. A shortfall could trigger a sharp price correction, impacting shareholder returns.
High Risk
Liquidity Constraint
The company’s current ratio of 1.63 indicates that current assets barely cover short‑term liabilities, limiting financial flexibility. Tight liquidity could constrain working capital and ability to fund operations during downturns.
Medium
Acquisition Integration Risk
Evoqua and the planned Idrica acquisition carry integration challenges that could delay synergy realization. Failure to integrate effectively could erode projected revenue and margin gains.
Medium
Project Timing & Funding
Delays in government water infrastructure funding or the timing of large smart‑metering contracts can postpone revenue recognition. Such timing uncertainties may compress quarterly earnings.
Lower
Competitive Pricing Pressure
Competitors may undercut Xylem’s higher‑margin business, eroding market share and pressuring margins. Price wars could reduce profitability over the long term.
Lower
Strategic Shift Impact
The 80/20 profitability focus may slow short‑term revenue growth, creating a window for competitors to capture market share. Investors may see a temporary dip in top‑line growth.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why XYL Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Profitability & Revenue Momentum
Xylem has posted year‑over‑year revenue growth and a solid net profit margin of 10.6%. The company reported record quarterly EBITDA margins and earnings per share, with expectations for continued earnings growth.
Strategic Acquisitions Fuel Growth
The acquisition of Evoqua is expected to significantly enhance Xylem's growth profile and operational performance, boosting margins. The company is also planning a majority stake in Idrica and has accelerated synergy targets related to the Evoqua integration.
Aggressive Shareholder Returns
In February 2026, Xylem approved a new share repurchase program authorizing up to $1.5 billion of its own stock. The program complements an 8% dividend increase, underscoring the company's commitment to returning capital to shareholders.
Digital Revenue Drives Margin Expansion
Xylem Vue digital revenue is targeting over 30% growth, contributing to recurring higher‑margin revenue. Integration benefits and digital expansion justify a premium valuation.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
XYL Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$118.59
52W Range Position
11%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$114.15
+3.9% from the low
52-Week High
$154.27
-23.1% from the high
1 Month
-4.25%
3 Month
-16.56%
YTD
-13.5%
1 Year
-1.5%
3Y CAGR
+3.4%
5Y CAGR
-0.0%
10Y CAGR
+11.0%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
XYL vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
21.4x
vs 20.7x median
+3% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+6.5%
vs +2.4% median
+177% above peer median
Net Margin
10.7%
vs 10.8% median
-1% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XYL XYL Xylem Inc. | $28.2B | 21.4x | +6.5% | 10.7% | Hold | +27.8% |
PNR PNR Pentair plc | $12.9B | 14.9x | +2.4% | 16.0% | Hold | +42.0% |
FEL FELE Franklin Electric Co., Inc. | $4.5B | 22.0x | +5.0% | 6.9% | Hold | -1.0% |
GFF GFF Griffon Corporation | $4.3B | 17.7x | -5.2% | 1.8% | Buy | +20.4% |
DHR DHR Danaher Corporation | $123.8B | 20.7x | +1.8% | 14.9% | Buy | +41.2% |
ITT ITT ITT Inc. | $19.4B | 28.3x | +14.2% | 10.8% | Buy | +6.0% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
XYL Dividend and Capital Return
XYL returns 1.4% total yield, led by a 1.35% dividend, raised 15 consecutive years.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
1.4%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.1%
Dividend Yield
1.35%
Payout Ratio
40.9%
How XYL Splits Its Return
Div 1.35%
Dividend 1.35%Buybacks 0.1%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$1.60
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
15Y
3Y Div CAGR
10.1%
5Y Div CAGR
9.0%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$15M
Estimated Shares Retired
126.5K
Approx. Share Reduction
0.1%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
238M
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.43 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $1.60 | +11.1% | 0.0% | 1.2% |
| 2024 | $1.44 | +9.1% | 0.1% | 1.3% |
| 2023 | $1.32 | +10.0% | 0.1% | 1.3% |
| 2022 | $1.20 | +7.1% | 0.3% | 1.3% |
FAQ
7 questionsXYL Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Xylem Inc. (XYL) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Xylem Inc. (XYL) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 40 analysts covering the stock, 18 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 21 rate it Hold, and 1 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $152, implying +27.8% from the current price of $119. The bear case scenario is $69 and the bull case is $181.
02What is the XYL stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for XYL is $152 based on 40 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $161 (+35.8% from today), and the low-end target is $133 (+12.2%). The base case model target is $166.
03Is Xylem Inc. (XYL) stock overvalued in 2026?
XYL trades at 21.4x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals fairly valued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Xylem Inc. (XYL) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for XYL in 2026 are: (1) Valuation Premium Risk — Xylem’s shares may be trading at a premium relative to peers, leaving little margin for error if earnings or revenue miss expectations. (2) Liquidity Constraint — The company’s current ratio of 1. (3) Acquisition Integration Risk — Evoqua and the planned Idrica acquisition carry integration challenges that could delay synergy realization. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Xylem Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates XYL will report consensus revenue of $9.7B (+6.5% year-over-year) and EPS of $5.02 (+25.7% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $10.6B in revenue.
06When does Xylem Inc. (XYL) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for XYL is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Xylem Inc. generate?
Xylem Inc. (XYL) generated $966M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 10.6%. XYL returns capital to shareholders through dividends (1.4% yield) and share repurchases ($15M TTM).