Upside case
Bull case
$176+58.2%
XYL would need investors to value it at roughly 32x earnings — about 12x more generous than today's 20x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Xylem Inc. (XYL) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
40
analysts
18 bullish · 1 bearish · 40 covering XYL
Strong Buy
0
Buy
18
Hold
21
Sell
1
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$152
+36.0% vs today
Scenario Range
$84 – $176
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
40
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
20.1x
Forward P/E · Market cap $26.5B
XYL price targets
Three scenarios for where XYL stock could go
Current
~$111
Confidence
51 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $111
Bear
$84
Base
$134
Bull
$176
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$134+20.1%
At 24x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$84-24.4%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 5x multiple contraction could push XYL down roughly 24% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Xylem Inc.
XYL · NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - MachineryDecember year-end
Xylem is a global water technology company that designs, manufactures, and services engineered products and solutions for water and wastewater applications. It generates revenue through three main segments: Water Infrastructure (~45% of sales), Applied Water (~35%), and Measurement & Control Solutions (~20%), selling pumps, treatment equipment, smart meters, and related services. The company's competitive advantage lies in its comprehensive portfolio of trusted brands—Flygt, Godwin, Goulds, and others—and deep technical expertise across the entire water cycle, creating high switching costs for utilities and industrial customers.
Market Cap
$26.5B
Revenue TTM
$9.1B
Net Income TTM
$973M
Net Margin
10.7%
XYL Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+6.5%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$1.26/$1.15
Revenue
$2.3B/$2.2B
Q4 2025
EPS
$1.37/$1.23
Revenue
$2.3B/$2.2B
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.42/$1.41
Revenue
$2.4B/$2.4B
Q2 2026
EPS
$1.12/$1.09
Revenue
$2.1B/$2.1B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $1.26/$1.15 | +9.6% | $2.3B/$2.2B | +4.2% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.37/$1.23 | +11.4% | $2.3B/$2.2B | +2.0% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.42/$1.41 | +0.7% | $2.4B/$2.4B | +1.1% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.12/$1.09 | +2.8% | $2.1B/$2.1B | +0.7% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$9.6B
+6.0% YoY
FY2
$9.9B
+3.1% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$4.60
+15.1% YoY
FY2
$4.76
+3.5% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$966M
FCF Margin: 10.6%
Next Earnings
July 30, 2026
Expected EPS
$1.35
Expected Revenue
$2.3B
XYL beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
XYL Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $6.6B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Water Infrastructure
40.1%
+3.2% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
57.7%
+7.1% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Water Infrastructure is the largest disclosed segment at 40.1% of FY 2025 revenue, up 3.2% YoY.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 57.7%, up 7.1% YoY.
XYL Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Slightly expensive versus peers
Fair value est. $102 — implies -8.1% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
8.1%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
XYL
28.4x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
+16% premium
vs Industrials Trailing P/E
XYL
28.4x
vs
Industrials
25.6x
+11% premium
vs XYL 5Y Avg P/E
Today
28.4x
vs
5Y Average
43.0x
34% discount
Forward PE
20.1x
S&P 500
18.8x
+7%
Industrials
21.2x
-5%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
28.4x
S&P 500
24.4x
+16%
Industrials
25.6x
+11%
5Y Avg
43.0x
-34%
PEG Ratio
1.24x
S&P 500
1.66x
-25%
Industrials
1.65x
-25%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
15.0x
S&P 500
15.2x
-1%
Industrials
13.9x
+8%
5Y Avg
22.7x
-34%
Price/FCF
29.1x
S&P 500
20.7x
+41%
Industrials
20.0x
+45%
5Y Avg
45.6x
-36%
Price/Sales
2.9x
S&P 500
3.1x
-5%
Industrials
1.6x
+88%
5Y Avg
3.6x
-19%
Dividend Yield
1.44%
S&P 500
1.91%
-25%
Industrials
1.21%
+18%
5Y Avg
1.13%
+28%
| Metric | XYL | S&P 500 | Industrials | 5Y Avg XYL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 20.1x | 18.8x | 21.2x | — |
| Trailing PE | 28.4x | 24.4x+16% | 25.6x+11% | 43.0x-34% |
| PEG Ratio | 1.24x | 1.66x-25% | 1.65x-25% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 15.0x | 15.2x | 13.9x | 22.7x-34% |
| Price/FCF | 29.1x | 20.7x+41% | 20.0x+45% | 45.6x-36% |
| Price/Sales | 2.9x | 3.1x | 1.6x+88% | 3.6x-19% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.44% | 1.91% | 1.21% | 1.13% |
XYL trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 2 of 6 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolXYL Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
XYL generates $966M in free cash flow at a 10.6% margin — returns 1.5% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$9.1B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+5.7%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
38.6%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
13.6%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
10.7%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$4.00
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$966M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
10.6%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
7.6%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
5.6%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$1.5B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$463M
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
0.5× FCF
~0.5 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
8.5%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
1.5%
Dividend
1.4%
Buyback
0.1%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$15M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$1.60
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
40.9%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
238M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageXYL Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
High Risk
Overvaluation risk
DCF intrinsic value suggests XYL is overvalued by 19% compared to its current market price.
Medium
Production risks
Production is reported as the top risk category for Xylem Inc., indicating potential operational challenges.
Medium
Conservative outlook
Analysts note a more conservative outlook for Xylem, potentially impacting growth expectations.
Medium
Earnings miss
Recent Q4 earnings fell short of estimates, raising concerns about financial performance.
Lower
Share repurchase impact
$1.5 billion share repurchase authorization may signal limited growth opportunities or capital allocation concerns.
Lower
AI price target downside
AI models predict a 5.1% decline in XYL stock price, suggesting bearish sentiment.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why XYL Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Share repurchase program
Xylem Inc. has authorized a new US$1.50 billion share repurchase program, signaling confidence in its financial position and commitment to returning capital to shareholders.
Secular growth drivers
Aging water infrastructure and increasing water scarcity create non-discretionary demand for Xylem's pumps, pipes, and water management solutions.
Climate change demand
Climate change is expanding the market for advanced water treatment and management technologies, benefiting Xylem's product portfolio.
Market leadership
Xylem is the world's largest pure-play water technology company by market capitalization, with a broad portfolio of water and wastewater solutions.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
XYL Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$111.42
52W Range Position
13%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$105.29
+5.8% from the low
52-Week High
$154.27
-27.8% from the high
1 Month
+2.88%
3 Month
-6.86%
YTD
-18.7%
1 Year
-11.0%
3Y CAGR
-0.5%
5Y CAGR
-0.4%
10Y CAGR
+9.2%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
XYL vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
20.1x
vs 21.0x median
-4% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+6.0%
vs +3.5% median
+72% above peer median
Net Margin
10.7%
vs 10.8% median
-1% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XYL XYL Xylem Inc. | $26.5B | 20.1x | +6.0% | 10.7% | Hold | +36.0% |
PNR PNR Pentair plc | $12.0B | 13.9x | +2.6% | 16.0% | Hold | +44.6% |
FEL FELE Franklin Electric Co., Inc. | $4.6B | 22.7x | +5.5% | 6.9% | Hold | -4.0% |
GFF GFF Griffon Corporation | $4.2B | 17.5x | +0.2% | 1.3% | Buy | +26.2% |
DHR DHR Danaher Corporation | $125.4B | 21.0x | +3.5% | 14.9% | Buy | +30.3% |
ITT ITT ITT Inc. | $17.6B | 25.1x | +10.0% | 10.8% | Buy | +23.6% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
XYL Dividend and Capital Return
XYL returns 1.5% total yield, led by a 1.44% dividend, raised 15 consecutive years.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
1.5%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.1%
Dividend Yield
1.44%
Payout Ratio
40.9%
How XYL Splits Its Return
Div 1.44%
Dividend 1.44%Buybacks 0.1%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$1.60
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
15Y
3Y Div CAGR
10.1%
5Y Div CAGR
9.0%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$15M
Estimated Shares Retired
134.6K
Approx. Share Reduction
0.1%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
238M
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.86 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $1.60 | +11.1% | 0.0% | 1.2% |
| 2024 | $1.44 | +9.1% | 0.1% | 1.3% |
| 2023 | $1.32 | +10.0% | 0.1% | 1.3% |
| 2022 | $1.20 | +7.1% | 0.3% | 1.3% |
FAQ
7 questionsXYL Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Xylem Inc. (XYL) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Xylem Inc. (XYL) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 40 analysts covering the stock, 18 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 21 rate it Hold, and 1 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $152, implying +36.0% from the current price of $111. The bear case scenario is $84 and the bull case is $176.
02What is the XYL stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for XYL is $152 based on 40 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $161 (+44.5% from today), and the low-end target is $133 (+19.4%). The base case model target is $134.
03Is Xylem Inc. (XYL) stock overvalued in 2026?
XYL trades at 20.1x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals slightly expensive versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Xylem Inc. (XYL) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for XYL in 2026 are: (1) Overvaluation risk — DCF intrinsic value suggests XYL is overvalued by 19% compared to its current market price. (2) Production risks — Production is reported as the top risk category for Xylem Inc. (3) Conservative outlook — Analysts note a more conservative outlook for Xylem, potentially impacting growth expectations. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Xylem Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates XYL will report consensus revenue of $9.6B (+6.0% year-over-year) and EPS of $4.60 (+15.1% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $9.9B in revenue.
06When does Xylem Inc. (XYL) report its next earnings?
Xylem Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-07-30. Consensus expects EPS of $1.35 and revenue of $2.3B. Over recent quarters, XYL has beaten EPS estimates 92% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Xylem Inc. generate?
Xylem Inc. (XYL) generated $966M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 10.6%. XYL returns capital to shareholders through dividends (1.4% yield) and share repurchases ($15M TTM).