YMM trades 42.9% below Wall Street's consensus target of $11.15.
Last 12 months price action with 12-month analyst target path
The base valuation assumes YMM achieves its forward estimates and maintains a stable P/E multiple of 1.6x. This scenario reflects the blended consensus of 3 Wall Street analysts, balancing both positive catalysts and macroeconomic headwinds over the next 12 months.
As of June 23, 2026, Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd. (YMM) has a Wall Street consensus price target of $11.15, based on estimates from 3 covering analysts. With the stock currently trading at $7.89, this represents a potential upside of +42.9%. The company has a market capitalization of $8.20B.
Analyst price targets range from a low of $11.00 to a high of $11.30, representing a 3% spread in expectations. The median target of $11.15 aligns closely with the consensus average. The tight target dispersion indicates high conviction among analysts.
The current analyst consensus rating is Buy, with 1 analysts rating the stock as a Buy or Strong Buy,1 rating it Hold, and 1 rating it Sell or Strong Sell. The mixed ratings reflect uncertainty about near-term direction.
From a valuation perspective, YMM trades at a trailing P/E of 12.7x and forward P/E of 1.6x. Analysts expect EPS to grow +19.6% over the next year.
Our proprietary valuation model, which blends historical multiples with forward estimates, suggests a base-case price target of $78.79, with bear and bull scenarios of $49.64 and $103.82 respectively. Model confidence stands at 55/100, reflecting moderate uncertainty in projections.
| Company | Market Cap | Price | Target | Upside Potential | Rating | Fwd P/E | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UBERUber Technologies, Inc. | $148.0B | $71.43 | $101.95 | +42.3% | Buy | 21.6x | 61 |
LYFTLyft, Inc. | $5.4B | $14.22 | $17.92 | +25.5% | Hold | 23.4x | 59 |
GRABGrab Holdings Limited | $13.9B | $3.49 | $5.85 | +63.9% | Buy | 33.1x | 12 |
LASRnLIGHT, Inc. | $3.7B | $65.20 | $86.50 | +33.6% | Buy | 123.4x | 13 |
CHRWC.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc. | $22.2B | $187.07 | $192.24 | +3.9% | Hold | 30.0x | 46 |
FWRDForward Air Corporation | $434M | $13.71 | $17.50 | +28.5% | Hold | — | 21 |
XPOXPO Logistics, Inc. | $23.6B | $201.19 | $220.00 | +10.3% | Buy | 40.5x | 32 |
GLBEGlobal-e Online Ltd. | $5.3B | $31.51 | $41.20 | +25.5% | Buy | 29.0x | 14 |
UPSUnited Parcel Service, Inc. | $91.1B | $107.21 | $115.23 | +9.7% | Hold | 14.8x | 45 |
FDXFedEx Corporation | $78.4B | $328.78 | $343.24 | +5.2% | Buy | 16.4x | 49 |
Quick answers to the most common questions about buying YMM stock.
The consensus Wall Street price target for YMM is $11.15, representing 42.9% upside from the current price of $7.89. With 3 analysts covering the stock, this strong upside suggests significant value not yet reflected in today's share price.
YMM has a consensus rating of "Buy" based on 3 Wall Street analysts. The rating breakdown is mixed, with 1 Hold ratings making up the largest segment. The consensus 12-month price target of $11.15 implies 42.9% upside from current levels.
With a forward P/E of 1.6354x, YMM trades at a relatively low valuation. The consensus target of $11.15 implies 42.9% appreciation, suggesting meaningful undervaluation.
The most bullish Wall Street analyst has a price target of $11.3 for YMM, while the most conservative target is $11. The consensus of $11.15 represents the median expectation. Our quantitative valuation model projects a bull case target of $104 based on optimistic growth and margin assumptions. These targets typically reflect 12-month expectations.
YMM is lightly followed, with 3 analysts providing price targets and ratings. Of these, 0 have Strong Buy ratings, 1 have Buy ratings, 1 recommend Hold, and 1 have Sell or Strong Sell ratings. Higher analyst coverage generally indicates greater institutional interest and more reliable consensus estimates.
The 12-month YMM stock forecast based on 3 Wall Street analysts shows a consensus price target of $11.15, with estimates ranging from $11 (bear case) to $11.3 (bull case). The median consensus rating is "Buy". Our proprietary valuation model produces a base case fair value of $79, with bear/bull scenarios of $50/$104.
Our quantitative valuation model calculates YMM's fair value at $79 (base case), with a bear case of $50 and bull case of $104. The model uses discounted cash flow analysis, historical growth rates, and margin mean-reversion to project FY+2 earnings, then applies an appropriate P/E multiple. The model confidence score is 55/100.
YMM trades at a forward P/E ratio of 1.6x based on next-twelve-months earnings estimates compared to a trailing P/E of 12.7x. The lower forward P/E indicates analysts expect earnings growth. A forward P/E is useful for comparing valuations when earnings are expected to change significantly.
Wall Street analysts are very optimistic on YMM, with a "Buy" consensus rating and $11.15 price target (42.9% upside). 1 of 3 analysts rate it Buy or Strong Buy. This information is for educational purposes only. Always conduct your own research, consider your financial situation, and consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
YMM analyst price targets range from $11 to $11.3, a 3% tight range reflecting strong analyst consensus. Differences stem from varying assumptions about revenue growth, profit margins, competitive dynamics, and valuation multiples. The $11.15 consensus represents the middle ground. Our model's $50-$104 range provides an independent fundamental perspective.
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