Earnings quality remains robust with an OCF/NI ratio of 1.12 in 2025Q2, though free cash flow remains volatile due to heavy capital expenditure requirements that reached 61.5% of revenue in 2023Q4.
| Cash from Operations | 10.45B | 11.97B | 11.43B | 13.36B | 11.48B | 7.22B | 4.95B | 6.3B | 4.4B | 3.63B | 2.54B | 1.87B | 1.07B |
| Operating CF Margin % | - | 25.06% | 25.81% | 34.78% | 32.45% | 23.75% | 19.63% | 28.51% | 25.02% | 27.8% | 25.91% | 30.68% | 27.46% |
| Operating CF Growth % | -43.9% | 4.72% | -14.46% | 16.39% | 58.99% | 45.84% | -21.47% | 43.15% | 21.3% | 43.14% | 35.82% | 74.25% | - |
| Net Income | 8.71B | 9.24B | 8.89B | 8.75B | 6.66B | 4.7B | 4.33B | 5.67B | 4.39B | 3.16B | 2.05B | 1.33B | 406M |
| Depreciation & Amortization | 2.61B | 3.38B | 3.02B | 2.88B | 2.67B | 2.22B | 1.84B | 1.26B | 853.72M | 560.37M | 324.98M | 158.06M | 64.01M |
| Stock-Based Compensation | 236.8M | 229.25M | 318.69M | 254.98M | 178.98M | 248.03M | 264.15M | 316.67M | 249.48M | 40.73M | 122.5M | 116.8M | 423K |
| Deferred Taxes | 0 | -536.23M | 292.54M | 157.78M | 244.62M | -192.09M | -271.97M | -40.53M | -139.08M | -29.04M | -30.55M | 5.05M | -80.31M |
| Other Non-Cash Items | 3.43B | 45.18M | 1.06B | 6.93M | -54.03M | 102.1M | 185.13M | -647.57M | -504.7M | 77.32M | 30.18M | -213.81M | -2.87M |
| Working Capital Changes | -2.03B | -384.92M | -2.15B | 1.32B | 1.78B | 139.09M | -1.39B | -260.21M | -443.28M | -177.59M | 37.83M | 469.82M | 684.49M |
| Change in Receivables | -941.51M | 502.38M | -875.29M | 477.77M | -14.88M | -209.85M | -79.83M | -84.47M | -309.43M | -100.23M | -141.84M | -11.92M | -40.66M |
| Change in Inventory | 27.86M | -2.08M | -10.49M | 12.46M | 28.96M | -29.96M | -9.22M | -32K | -9.58M | -271K | -18.24M | -10.77M | -4.95M |
| Change in Payables | 0 | 85.6M | -93.61M | 364.58M | 528.3M | 354.48M | 160.63M | 156.06M | 422.67M | 252.72M | 342.22M | 142.14M | 110.03M |
| Cash from Investing | -3.26B | -4.83B | -5.98B | -12.25B | -16.04B | -8.76B | -3.55B | -3.66B | -12.87B | -8.29B | -3.09B | -1.45B | -1.12B |
| Capital Expenditures | -2.93B | -5.21B | -5.21B | -6.53B | -7.41B | -9.33B | -9.21B | -5.23B | -3.98B | -2.83B | -2.69B | -1.48B | -790.08M |
| CapEx % of Revenue | 6.32% | 10.92% | 11.76% | 16.99% | 20.95% | 30.68% | 36.52% | 23.64% | 22.62% | 21.64% | 27.47% | 24.25% | 20.24% |
| Acquisitions | 0 | 801.87M | 664.15M | 0 | 236.4M | -670.26M | -232.1M | -236.49M | -1.18B | -89.06M | -430.88M | -214.41M | -109.19M |
| Investments | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Other Investing | -332.14M | -511.98M | -327.63M | 588.62M | 89.08M | -239.25M | -493.42M | 118.27M | 86.12M | 22.08M | 35.05M | 240.53M | -217.03M |
| Cash from Financing | -4.4B | -10.57B | -5B | -769.84M | 7.06B | -2.9B | 8.34B | -1.98B | 7.04B | -1.06B | 9.08B | 1.87B | 171.06M |
| Debt Issued (Net) | 0 | -5.54B | 1.75B | 2.35B | 8.2B | 2.03B | 1.43B | 0 | 0 | -200M | 141.06M | 50M | 250M |
| Equity Issued (Net) | -1.2B | -1.25B | -1.16B | -1.01B | -84.55M | -3.81B | 8.54B | -762.89M | 8.12B | -857.66M | 9.2B | 0 | 316M |
| Dividends Paid | -7.66B | -3.76B | -5.61B | -2.07B | -1.32B | -1.35B | -1.65B | -1.27B | -895.14M | 0 | 0 | -115M | -300M |
| Share Repurchases | -1.2B | -1.25B | -1.16B | -1.01B | -84.55M | -3.81B | -1.23B | -762.89M | -769.81M | -857.66M | 0 | 0 | -184M |
| Other Financing | 4.46B | -15.87M | 20.34M | -45.36M | 262.81M | 234.78M | 10.35M | 51.36M | -184.84M | -3.9M | -254.86M | 1.93B | -394.94M |
| Net Change in Cash | 2.75B | -3.48B | 479.64M | 448.22M | 2.83B | -4.59B | 9.08B | 654.46M | -1.15B | -6.15B | 8.84B | 2.29B | 126.52M |
| Free Cash Flow | 2.32B | 5.89B | 5.53B | 6.69B | 4.07B | -2.11B | -4.26B | 1.08B | 422.77M | 803.95M | -152.66M | 391.67M | 281.67M |
| FCF Margin % | 5% | 12.34% | 12.48% | 17.42% | 11.49% | -6.93% | -16.88% | 4.87% | 2.4% | 6.16% | -1.56% | 6.44% | 7.22% |
| FCF Growth % | -27.56% | 6.64% | -17.39% | 64.54% | 292.95% | 50.49% | -495% | 154.93% | -47.41% | 626.61% | -138.98% | 39.05% | - |
| FCF per Share | 2.78 | 7.18 | 6.59 | 7.98 | 4.96 | -2.57 | -5.35 | 1.37 | 0.56 | 1.12 | -0.24 | 0.50 | 0.36 |
| FCF Conversion (FCF/Net Income) | 0.27x | 1.35x | 1.30x | 1.53x | 1.69x | 1.52x | 1.15x | 1.11x | 1.00x | 1.15x | 1.24x | 1.40x | 2.64x |
| Interest Paid | 0 | 260.92M | 295.62M | 249.06M | 177.46M | 126.81M | 34.62M | 0 | 780K | 15.67M | 12.99M | 16.39M | 798K |
| Taxes Paid | 0 | 2.64B | 2.4B | 1.67B | 1.25B | 1.14B | 991.36M | 1.42B | 893.2M | 871.78M | 646.16M | 331.24M | 65.15M |
Regulatory labor cost inflation
According to the provided financial data, ZTO consistently maintains an OCF/NI ratio above 1.0, with a peak of 1.79 in 2023Q4, indicating that the company's reported net income is reliably supported by actual cash inflows from its core express delivery operations.
The persistent gap where operating cash flow exceeds net income suggests that non-cash charges, primarily depreciation from the company's heavy infrastructure investment, are significant. Investors should monitor this relationship, as it confirms that the firm's profitability is not reliant on aggressive accrual accounting but rather on tangible operational throughput.
As reported in quarterly filings, ZTO's free cash flow exhibits extreme volatility, swinging from a positive $3.1 billion in 2024Q3 to a negative $2.4 billion in 2024Q4, largely due to the lumpy nature of capital expenditures required to maintain its competitive infrastructure.
This trajectory suggests that while the core business generates substantial cash, the company's commitment to aggressive capacity expansion periodically overwhelms internal cash generation. The negative FCF margins observed in several quarters warrant further investigation into whether these capital outlays will continue to yield the historical returns on invested capital.
Based on reported figures, ZTO's capital intensity is significant, with CapEx/Revenue ratios reaching as high as 61.5% in 2023Q4, reflecting a heavy reliance on continuous investment in automated sorting and fleet upgrades to maintain its structural cost advantage over industry peers.
The high level of capital expenditure appears to be a strategic choice to defend market share, yet it creates a recurring drag on free cash flow. Analysts should interpret these high spending levels as a necessary cost of maintaining the firm's moat, though it may limit the cash available for shareholder returns.
As evidenced by recent financial statements, ZTO has utilized its substantial cash reserves to fund significant dividend payments, including $5.6 billion in 2024Q4, signaling a shift toward returning capital to shareholders despite the ongoing requirements for infrastructure maintenance and expansion.
The combination of heavy capital investment and large dividend payouts suggests management is attempting to balance growth with shareholder yield. Investors should monitor whether this dual-track deployment strategy remains sustainable if parcel volume growth continues to moderate in the coming fiscal periods.
Quick answers to the most common questions about buying ZTO stock.
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. (ZTO) generated $11.97B in net cash from operating activities in 2025. This reflects the cash generated directly from core business operations.
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. (ZTO) generated $5.89B in free cash flow in 2025. Free cash flow is the cash left over after capital expenditures, which can be used to pay dividends, repurchase shares, or pay down debt.
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. (ZTO) spent $5.21B on capital expenditures in 2025. CapEx represents the cash invested in physical assets like property, plant, and equipment to maintain or grow the business.
In 2025, ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. (ZTO) returned $3.76B to shareholders via cash dividends and spent $1.25B on share repurchases. This shows the company's commitment to returning capital to its equity investors.