MODEL VERDICT
Agilent Technologies, Inc. (A)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $114.52 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $115.55 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $121.87 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.72 | $119.77 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.52 | $115.06 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $138.19 | +20.7% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 8 industry peers | $106.87 | -6.7% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 8 industry peers | $148.07 | +29.3% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 8 industry peers | $121.41 | +6.0% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 8 industry peers | $140.60 | +22.8% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 8 industry peers | $127.67 | +11.5% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 3 industry peers | $204.34 | +78.4% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $146.93 | +28.3% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $139.66 | +22.0% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 8 industry peers | $147.28 | +28.6% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 8 industry peers | $121.39 | +6.0% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $145.50 | +27.1% | 100% | 97 | UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 21× | 23× | 25× (Current) | 27× | 29× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (6%) | $102 | $111 | $121 | $131 | $140 |
| Conservative (10%) | $105 | $115 | $125 | $135 | $145 |
| Base Case (14.7%) | $110 | $121 | $131 | $142 | $152 |
| Bull Case (20%) | $115 | $126 | $137 | $148 | $159 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 35.20 | 33.18 | 25.31 | 51.52 | 8.66 |
| EV/EBIT | 30.69 | 29.35 | 25.56 | 41.18 | 5.55 |
| EV/EBITDA | 26.21 | 24.09 | 22.76 | 32.83 | 3.82 |
| P/FCF | 35.60 | 33.55 | 27.92 | 46.10 | 7.27 |
| P/FFO | 27.73 | 27.24 | 20.72 | 36.00 | 5.08 |
| P/TBV | 134.53 | 84.02 | 21.20 | 565.18 | 192.79 |
| P/AFFO | 33.02 | 33.93 | 23.53 | 40.71 | 5.67 |
| P/B Ratio | 7.18 | 7.04 | 5.71 | 9.09 | 1.29 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 6.30 | 6.02 | 5.25 | 7.76 | 0.85 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates A's fair value at $145.50 vs the current price of $114.52, implying +27.1% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 97/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $145.50 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $127.58 (P10) to $147.74 (P90), with a median of $137.72.
A's current P/E of 25.1x compares to the industry median of 32.4x (8 peers in the group). This represents a -22.7% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 35.2x over 7 years. Signal: Discount.
38 analysts cover A with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $166.00 (range: $140.00 — $180.00), implying +45.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (28), Hold (8), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 97/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that A's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.0σ, meaning margins are 0.0 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (18.3%), the model estimates fair value drops by 4100.0% to approximately $161. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.