MODEL VERDICT
Alcoa Corporation (AA)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $62.61 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $65.99 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $65.63 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $70.37 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $73.01 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $85.74 | +36.9% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 7 industry peers | $69.94 | +11.7% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $82.44 | +31.7% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 4 industry peers | $64.66 | +3.3% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 7 industry peers | $60.04 | -4.1% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 4 industry peers | $82.70 | +32.1% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $175.27 | +179.9% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $154.57 | +146.9% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 7 industry peers | $81.97 | +30.9% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 4 industry peers | $64.13 | +2.4% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $94.41 | +50.8% | 100% | 83 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 10× | 12× | 14× (Current) | 16× | 18× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $46 | $55 | $65 | $74 | $83 |
| Conservative (7%) | $47 | $57 | $66 | $76 | $85 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $49 | $59 | $68 | $78 | $88 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $50 | $60 | $71 | $81 | $91 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 57.75 | 26.36 | 11.97 | 134.93 | 67.22 |
| EV/EBIT | 13.51 | 10.81 | 8.16 | 21.95 | 5.68 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.71 | 4.48 | 3.11 | 11.64 | 3.04 |
| P/FCF | 63.36 | 24.37 | 12.96 | 192.54 | 71.74 |
| P/FFO | 11.06 | 10.36 | 7.90 | 16.66 | 3.42 |
| P/TBV | 1.38 | 1.28 | 0.70 | 2.25 | 0.56 |
| P/AFFO | 143.07 | 32.98 | 12.14 | 587.86 | 249.56 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.35 | 1.25 | 0.68 | 2.25 | 0.56 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.67 | 0.64 | 0.38 | 1.10 | 0.25 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates AA's fair value at $94.41 vs the current price of $62.61, implying +50.8% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 83/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $94.41 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $72.40 (P10) to $125.92 (P90), with a median of $95.55.
AA's current P/E of 14.1x compares to the industry median of 18.6x (7 peers in the group). This represents a -24.1% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 57.8x over 3 years. Signal: Discount.
42 analysts cover AA with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $68.80 (range: $48.00 — $80.00), implying +9.9% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (21), Hold (19), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 83/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that AA's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.6σ, meaning margins are 0.6 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 3-year mean (3.8%), the model estimates fair value drops by 7450.0% to approximately $109. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.