Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. (AAOI)
Valuation Overview•Is Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. Overvalued or Undervalued?
Priced at a premium to peer multiples and intrinsic cash flows, demanding strong execution to justify current levels.
Fragile underlying quality score of 43/100; weak margins or elevated debt leverage warrant caution.
Wall Street forecasts a balanced outlook with consensus price targets near the current price.
Verdict: Average quality business weighed down by significant profitability concerns.
Wall Street sentiment is generally neutral alongside robust expected earnings growth. The company currently dilutes shareholders to fund operations and growth rather than returning capital.
AAOI struggles with subpar profitability and pressured margins. This is backed by a fortress balance sheet, holding significant net cash ($49M) and minimal debt risk.
The company is driving exceptional top-line expansion (26.9% 3Y CAGR) paired with stable bottom-line earnings. However, profitability remains a major concern with severely compressed operating margins (-11.6%).
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $151.1M | +82.8% | +26.9% | +14.2% | +9.1% | |
| EBITDA | -$13.0M | — | +9.1% | — | — | |
| Net Income | -$14.3M | +79.5% | +16.8% | — | — | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $-0.19 | +85.8% | — | — | — | |
| Free Cash Flow | -$143.6M | -213.1% | -168.5% | -40.9% | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 29.6% | 27.3% | 23.0% | 27.0% |
| Operating Margin | -11.6% | -19.8% | -22.5% | -13.2% |
| Net Margin | -8.5% | -36.3% | -32.9% | -19.3% |
| FCF Margin | -47.1% | -43.7% | -29.9% | -21.2% |
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26Latest | $-0.05 | $-0.07 | -42.9% | ||
| Q1'26 | $-0.12 | $-0.01 | +91.7% | ||
| Q4'25 | $-0.10 | $-0.09 | +10.0% | ||
| Q3'25 | $-0.08 | $-0.16 | -100.0% | ||
| Q2'25 | $-0.04 | $-0.02 | +50.0% | ||
| Q1'25 | $-0.02 | $-0.02 | +0.0% | ||
| Q4'24 | $-0.17 | $-0.21 | -23.5% | ||
| Q3'24 | $-0.29 | $-0.28 | +3.4% |
Total return is +718.7% (1Y), outperforming the benchmark by +693.7%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | +308.7% | +299.4% | — |
| 1Y | +718.7% | +693.7% | — |
| 3YCAGR | +214.6% | +198.5% | — |
| 5YCAGR | +81.4% | +68.5% | — |
| 10YCAGR | +31.8% | +19.1% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 31.3x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. (AAOI) valuation, health, and returns.
Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. is estimated to be overvalued under our discounted cash flow framework. relative multiples indicate the stock is Limited: Expensive versus peers compared to industry peers. overvalued (implying -37.8% downside from DCF intrinsic value of $100.65)
Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. has multiple valuation anchors: DCF Intrinsic Value: $100.65 | Peer Relative Fair Value: $57.48 | Wall Street Analyst Target: $160.00 (implying -1.1% upside). A convergence of these signals offers higher conviction.
Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. displays fair financial health with a composite quality score of 43/100, supported by a Altman Z-Score of 17.6 (safe zone), Piotroski F-Score of 4/9, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of -7.9%.
Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. does not return material capital to shareholders via dividends or share repurchases, electing to retain earnings to fund internal growth.
Applied Optoelectronics, Inc.'s current growth trajectory is Accelerating. The company achieved +82.8% 1Y revenue growth and +85.8% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of +26.9%.
Wall Street consensus is Buy based on 16 analysts, beating EPS expectations in 50% of recent quarters with a -1-quarter streak. The consensus price target represents a -1.1% change from current levels.
Investment risks for Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. include: -47.6% 1-year max drawdown, high beta (3.84x market volatility). Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of 3.84x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.