Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. (AAOI)
Estimates & Forecasts•Proprietary EPS, revenue & margin forecasts — FY+1 to FY+4
Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. (AAOI)Proprietary model projects FY+1 EPS of $-0.78 with +24.6% revenue growth at 55/100 confidence. Below consensus estimate using the industrial / operating company framework.
USD · AAOI · Proprietary Model| Metric | 2025A | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | 2029E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $456M | $632M | $751M | $861M | $950M |
| Net Income | $-38M | $-67M | $-60M | $-165M | $-199M |
| EPS (Diluted) | $-0.64 | $-0.78 | $-0.65 | $-1.66 | $-1.85 |
| Free Cash Flow | $-354M | $-189M | $-182M | $-173M | $-164M |
| Metric | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | 2029E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $218M | $249M | $456M | $632M | $751M | $861M | $950M |
| YoY Growth | -2.3% | +14.6% | +82.8% | +24.6% | +19.0% | +14.6% | +10.3% |
| Metric | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | 2029E |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Income | $51M | $63M | $74M | $83M |
| Operating Margin | 8.0% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 8.7% |
| Metric | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income | $-56M | $-187M | $-38M |
| EPS (Diluted) | $-1.75 | $-4.50 | $-0.64 |
| YoY Growth | — | — | — |
| Net Margin | -25.8% | -74.9% | -8.4% |
Forecast is usable, but expect normal estimate drift around earnings and macro events.
Quick answers to common questions about AAOI estimates and forecasts.
Applied Optoelectronics, Inc.'s projected EPS for next fiscal year is $-0.78, representing a -37.1% growth YoY. This forecast has a confidence score of 55/100 and uses the industrial / operating company framework.
EarningsRevenue is expected to grow 24.6% next fiscal year, reaching approximately $0.6 billion, blending historical trends with near-term analyst expectations.
GrowthEstimates carry a confidence score of 55/100. This indicates moderate conviction with normal expected variance around earnings releases. Reliability is evaluated based on data depth and consensus alignment.
MethodologyOperating margin is projected at 8.0% next fiscal year. Margins are currently expanding (favorable operating leverage).
EarningsThe model blends historical SEC statements with near-term consensus analyst expectations for the first two years (FY1 and FY2), transitioning to purely data-driven, long-term mathematical projection rules for years three and four.
MethodologyOur FY+1 EPS projection of $-0.78 is below consensus of $1.03 (a difference of 195.2%).
ForecastDisclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Financial forecasts and estimates are model outputs under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.