MODEL VERDICT
Abeona Therapeutics Inc. (ABEO)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $5.50 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 2 industry peers | $26.65 | +384.5% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 5 industry peers | $1.38 | -74.9% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 5 industry peers | $0.55 | -90.0% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 2 industry peers | $25.06 | +355.6% | 2% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $15.88 | +188.6% | 100% | 64 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 4× | 4× | 5× (Current) | 7× | 9× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $4 | $4 | $5 | $7 | $9 |
| Conservative (7%) | $4 | $4 | $5 | $8 | $10 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $4 | $4 | $6 | $8 | $10 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $5 | $5 | $6 | $8 | $10 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/TBV | 2.85 | 2.12 | 0.82 | 7.22 | 2.43 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.66 | 1.42 | 0.79 | 7.22 | 2.54 |
| P/S Ratio | 26.66 | 17.13 | 11.16 | 59.89 | 19.98 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 9 valuation metrics, the model estimates ABEO's fair value at $15.88 vs the current price of $5.50, implying +188.6% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 64/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $15.88 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $13.56 (P10) to $25.23 (P90), with a median of $19.29.
ABEO's current P/E of 5.4x compares to the industry median of 26.4x (2 peers in the group). This represents a -79.4% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
9 analysts cover ABEO with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $17.00 (range: $17.00 — $17.00), implying +209.1% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (6), Hold (3), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 64/100, based on: data completeness (12), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for ABEO.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.