MODEL VERDICT
Asbury Automotive Group, Inc. (ABG)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $203.01 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $203.06 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $211.44 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $202.54 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $204.00 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $320.88 | +58.1% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 7 industry peers | $295.65 | +45.6% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $341.40 | +68.2% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 7 industry peers | $450.88 | +122.1% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 7 industry peers | $405.70 | +99.8% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 7 industry peers | $450.39 | +121.9% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 4 industry peers | $288.88 | +42.3% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $367.21 | +80.9% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $328.52 | +61.8% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 7 industry peers | $331.73 | +63.4% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 7 industry peers | $451.94 | +122.6% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $331.06 | +63.1% | 100% | 87 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 4× | 6× | 8× (Current) | 10× | 12× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (6%) | $106 | $159 | $212 | $265 | $318 |
| Conservative (9%) | $110 | $164 | $219 | $274 | $329 |
| Base Case (13.8%) | $114 | $172 | $229 | $286 | $343 |
| Bull Case (19%) | $119 | $179 | $238 | $298 | $358 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 8.82 | 9.25 | 4.03 | 11.71 | 2.86 |
| EV/EBIT | 10.48 | 11.50 | 5.05 | 12.55 | 2.57 |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.97 | 9.98 | 5.57 | 12.65 | 2.22 |
| P/FCF | 10.18 | 7.62 | 3.21 | 27.68 | 8.35 |
| P/FFO | 7.68 | 7.89 | 3.77 | 9.78 | 2.25 |
| P/AFFO | 12.04 | 11.52 | 4.19 | 26.25 | 7.10 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.93 | 1.46 | 1.17 | 3.34 | 0.90 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.31 | 0.30 | 0.25 | 0.39 | 0.05 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates ABG's fair value at $331.06 vs the current price of $203.01, implying +63.1% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 87/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $331.06 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $263.09 (P10) to $420.26 (P90), with a median of $332.24.
ABG's current P/E of 8.1x compares to the industry median of 13.6x (7 peers in the group). This represents a -40.5% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 8.8x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
18 analysts cover ABG with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $238.00 (range: $230.00 — $254.00), implying +17.2% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (5), Hold (12), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 87/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that ABG's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.7σ, meaning margins are 0.7 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (6.4%), the model estimates fair value drops by 20790.0% to approximately $625. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.