MODEL VERDICT
ABM Industries Incorporated (ABM)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $40.99 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $40.16 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $40.35 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $39.73 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $39.23 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $75.60 | +84.4% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 8 industry peers | $71.02 | +73.3% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $57.24 | +39.6% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 8 industry peers | $56.86 | +38.7% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 8 industry peers | $63.69 | +55.4% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 8 industry peers | $41.49 | +1.2% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 5 industry peers | $1646.74 | +3917.4% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $340.42 | +730.5% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $354.76 | +765.5% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 7 industry peers | $56.78 | +38.5% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 8 industry peers | $56.43 | +37.7% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $434.58 | +960.2% | 100% | 81 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 12× | 14× | 16× (Current) | 18× | 20× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (115%) | $67 | $78 | $89 | $100 | $111 |
| Conservative (186%) | $89 | $104 | $119 | $133 | $148 |
| Base Case (286.6%) | $120 | $140 | $160 | $180 | $200 |
| Bull Case (387%) | $151 | $177 | $202 | $227 | $252 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 1819.46 | 19.74 | 11.83 | 12613.33 | 4759.66 |
| EV/EBIT | 13.96 | 13.41 | 11.01 | 18.17 | 2.33 |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.54 | 10.34 | 8.20 | 15.82 | 2.85 |
| P/FCF | 13.43 | 14.00 | 6.07 | 19.46 | 4.94 |
| P/FFO | 13.41 | 10.74 | 7.99 | 26.34 | 6.50 |
| P/AFFO | 18.86 | 14.40 | 9.31 | 43.38 | 12.00 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.68 | 1.70 | 1.49 | 1.83 | 0.11 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.39 | 0.39 | 0.30 | 0.45 | 0.05 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates ABM's fair value at $434.58 vs the current price of $40.99, implying +960.2% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 81/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $434.58 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $66.15 (P10) to $1499.12 (P90), with a median of $380.94.
ABM's current P/E of 15.8x compares to the industry median of 22.1x (7 peers in the group). This represents a -28.4% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 1819.5x over 7 years. Signal: Discount.
11 analysts cover ABM with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $50.00 (range: $47.00 — $52.00), implying +22.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (4), Hold (7), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 81/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that ABM's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.4σ, meaning margins are 0.4 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (3.9%), the model estimates fair value drops by 2514700.0% to approximately $10349. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.