MODEL VERDICT
Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.37 | $141.66 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.33 | $142.82 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.33 | $141.55 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.36 | $137.48 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.34 | $128.96 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $81.56 | -42.4% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 8 industry peers | $81.63 | -42.4% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $124.35 | -12.2% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 8 industry peers | $123.91 | -12.5% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 8 industry peers | $88.76 | -37.3% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 8 industry peers | $166.48 | +17.5% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $81.86 | -42.2% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $66.86 | -52.8% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 7 industry peers | $121.24 | -14.4% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 8 industry peers | $122.41 | -13.6% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $153.84 | +8.6% | 100% | 82 | SLIGHTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 29× | 32× | 35× (Current) | 38× | 41× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $122 | $134 | $147 | $159 | $172 |
| Conservative (7%) | $124 | $137 | $150 | $163 | $176 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $129 | $142 | $155 | $168 | $182 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $133 | $146 | $160 | $174 | $188 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 28.77 | 31.31 | 18.80 | 33.68 | 6.76 |
| EV/EBIT | 172.81 | 31.44 | 28.08 | 716.73 | 304.28 |
| EV/EBITDA | 63.90 | 31.44 | 28.20 | 174.44 | 62.72 |
| P/FCF | 24.32 | 18.76 | 17.07 | 44.34 | 11.43 |
| P/FFO | 26.44 | 29.45 | 18.64 | 31.24 | 6.82 |
| P/TBV | 18.67 | 12.07 | 11.10 | 40.19 | 11.86 |
| P/B Ratio | 15.57 | 10.75 | 10.08 | 30.05 | 8.36 |
| P/S Ratio | 12.25 | 8.36 | 6.91 | 25.82 | 7.69 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates ABNB's fair value at $153.84 vs the current price of $141.66, implying +8.6% upside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Undervalued. Confidence: 82/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $153.84 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $108.09 (P10) to $225.44 (P90), with a median of $158.64.
ABNB's current P/E of 35.2x compares to the industry median of 30.9x (7 peers in the group). This represents a +13.9% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 28.8x over 4 years. Signal: Slight Premium.
44 analysts cover ABNB with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $145.44 (range: $107.00 — $185.00), implying +2.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (20), Hold (21), Sell (3), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 82/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (16), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: ABNB trades at the 7270th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (28.8×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for ABNB.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.