MODEL VERDICT
Abbott Laboratories (ABT)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.72 | $89.47 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.72 | $91.15 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.72 | $96.83 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.72 | $101.50 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $100.30 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 12 analyst estimates | $93.04 | +4.0% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 12 industry peers | $118.05 | +31.9% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 11 industry peers | $233.22 | +160.7% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 12 industry peers | $84.52 | -5.5% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 11 industry peers | $94.43 | +5.5% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 12 industry peers | $90.05 | +0.6% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 5 industry peers | $540.29 | +503.9% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 12 industry peers | $107.36 | +20.0% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 12 industry peers | $100.98 | +12.9% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 11 industry peers | $233.22 | +160.7% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 12 industry peers | $84.50 | -5.6% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $151.68 | +69.5% | 100% | 93 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 8× | 10× | 12× (Current) | 14× | 16× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (12%) | $68 | $86 | $103 | $120 | $137 |
| Conservative (20%) | $73 | $91 | $110 | $128 | $146 |
| Base Case (30.0%) | $79 | $99 | $119 | $139 | $159 |
| Bull Case (41%) | $86 | $107 | $129 | $150 | $172 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 36.03 | 35.72 | 14.80 | 53.98 | 12.51 |
| EV/EBIT | 31.34 | 30.30 | 23.40 | 39.91 | 5.96 |
| EV/EBITDA | 20.84 | 20.51 | 17.35 | 24.21 | 2.10 |
| P/FCF | 31.11 | 31.13 | 24.82 | 38.05 | 4.78 |
| P/FFO | 20.98 | 22.68 | 11.90 | 25.00 | 4.43 |
| P/TBV | 1189.27 | 41.71 | 10.90 | 4662.74 | 2315.71 |
| P/AFFO | 27.05 | 28.86 | 13.72 | 34.64 | 6.82 |
| P/B Ratio | 5.19 | 4.96 | 4.13 | 6.99 | 1.01 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 4.93 | 4.80 | 4.19 | 5.85 | 0.61 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates ABT's fair value at $151.68 vs the current price of $89.47, implying +69.5% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 93/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $151.68 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $118.03 (P10) to $141.16 (P90), with a median of $129.73.
ABT's current P/E of 11.7x compares to the industry median of 30.5x (11 peers in the group). This represents a -61.6% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 36.0x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
41 analysts cover ABT with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $128.71 (range: $92.00 — $152.00), implying +43.9% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (31), Hold (10), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 93/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 31.9% is 16.1 percentage points above the 7-year average (15.8%), with a Z-score of +2.1σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$136. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that ABT's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +2.1σ, meaning margins are 2.1 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (15.8%), the model estimates fair value drops by 5220.0% to approximately $136. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.