MODEL VERDICT
Aurora Cannabis Inc. (ACB)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA 27 industry peers | $18.90 | +426.5% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 19 industry peers | $0.82 | -77.2% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 26 industry peers | $3.55 | -1.1% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 44 industry peers | $21.06 | +486.6% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 44 industry peers | $15.24 | +324.5% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 22 industry peers | $0.99 | -72.4% | 2% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $11.44 | +218.7% | 100% | 70 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 144× | 158× | 172× (Current) | 186× | 200× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $4 | $5 | $5 | $6 | $6 |
| Conservative (7%) | $4 | $5 | $5 | $6 | $6 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $5 | $5 | $5 | $6 | $6 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $5 | $5 | $6 | $6 | $6 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/TBV | 1.11 | 0.46 | 0.35 | 3.93 | 1.28 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.39 | 0.38 | 0.29 | 0.47 | 0.06 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.61 | 0.90 | 0.69 | 8.46 | 2.86 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 13 valuation metrics, the model estimates ACB's fair value at $11.44 vs the current price of $3.59, implying +218.7% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 70/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $11.44 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $7.95 (P10) to $13.46 (P90), with a median of $10.69.
ACB's current P/E of 171.8x compares to the industry median of 28.7x (19 peers in the group). This represents a +498.2% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: High Premium.
14 analysts cover ACB with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $5.92 (range: $1.00 — $8.75), implying +64.9% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (3), Hold (8), Sell (3), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 70/100, based on: data completeness (18), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for ACB.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.