MODEL VERDICT
Aecom (ACM)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $84.10 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $80.37 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $86.61 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $86.47 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $83.59 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 10 analyst estimates | $180.36 | +114.5% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 10 industry peers | $187.16 | +122.5% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 10 industry peers | $229.27 | +172.6% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 10 industry peers | $153.14 | +82.1% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 10 industry peers | $227.48 | +170.5% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 10 industry peers | $155.21 | +84.6% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 10 industry peers | $243.90 | +190.0% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 10 industry peers | $247.92 | +194.8% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 10 industry peers | $229.26 | +172.6% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 10 industry peers | $153.03 | +82.0% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $161.09 | +91.5% | 100% | 75 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 16× | 18× | 20× (Current) | 22× | 24× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $70 | $79 | $88 | $96 | $105 |
| Conservative (7%) | $72 | $81 | $90 | $99 | $108 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $74 | $83 | $93 | $102 | $111 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $76 | $86 | $96 | $105 | $115 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 80.30 | 38.96 | 22.64 | 237.00 | 89.05 |
| EV/EBIT | 22.37 | 20.80 | 13.17 | 38.74 | 7.97 |
| EV/EBITDA | 16.98 | 15.92 | 12.05 | 28.89 | 5.50 |
| P/FCF | 21.40 | 20.59 | 10.01 | 37.34 | 8.11 |
| P/FFO | 7209.32 | 33.12 | 17.23 | 50151.16 | 18935.64 |
| P/AFFO | 49.08 | 35.18 | 21.15 | 103.22 | 32.55 |
| P/B Ratio | 4.16 | 4.65 | 1.74 | 6.15 | 1.60 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.78 | 0.87 | 0.50 | 0.92 | 0.17 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates ACM's fair value at $161.09 vs the current price of $84.10, implying +91.5% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 75/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $161.09 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $155.65 (P10) to $228.37 (P90), with a median of $189.06.
ACM's current P/E of 20.0x compares to the industry median of 54.5x (10 peers in the group). This represents a -63.3% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 80.3x over 5 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
25 analysts cover ACM with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $125.63 (range: $100.00 — $145.00), implying +49.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (16), Hold (8), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 75/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: --8 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 2.9% is 2.0 percentage points above the 5-year average (4.4%), with a Z-score of +1.3σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$507. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that ACM's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.3σ, meaning margins are 1.3 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 5-year mean (4.4%), the model estimates fair value drops by 50280.0% to approximately $507. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.