MODEL VERDICT
Accenture plc (ACN)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $179.83 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $178.36 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.55 | $197.65 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.58 | $194.00 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $179.53 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 12 analyst estimates | $153.40 | -14.7% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 12 industry peers | $181.13 | +0.7% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 12 industry peers | $168.49 | -6.3% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 12 industry peers | $207.62 | +15.5% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 12 industry peers | $161.76 | -10.0% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 12 industry peers | $185.09 | +2.9% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 12 industry peers | $101.40 | -43.6% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 12 industry peers | $159.78 | -11.1% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 12 industry peers | $141.89 | -21.1% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 12 industry peers | $168.31 | -6.4% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 12 industry peers | $207.48 | +15.4% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $224.02 | +24.6% | 100% | 89 | UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 11× | 13× | 15× (Current) | 17× | 19× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $138 | $164 | $189 | $214 | $239 |
| Conservative (6%) | $141 | $167 | $193 | $219 | $244 |
| Base Case (9.0%) | $146 | $172 | $199 | $225 | $252 |
| Bull Case (12%) | $150 | $177 | $204 | $232 | $259 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 31.05 | 30.75 | 22.08 | 45.26 | 7.44 |
| EV/EBIT | 22.73 | 22.84 | 15.85 | 33.64 | 5.70 |
| EV/EBITDA | 19.69 | 19.82 | 13.14 | 27.66 | 4.64 |
| P/FCF | 23.25 | 22.71 | 15.60 | 31.90 | 5.15 |
| P/FFO | 25.23 | 24.59 | 16.77 | 34.34 | 5.48 |
| P/TBV | 26.90 | 23.26 | 17.60 | 43.49 | 9.62 |
| P/AFFO | 27.36 | 26.99 | 17.82 | 37.10 | 5.89 |
| P/B Ratio | 8.74 | 8.47 | 5.26 | 13.32 | 2.48 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 3.49 | 3.45 | 2.44 | 5.30 | 0.92 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates ACN's fair value at $224.02 vs the current price of $179.83, implying +24.6% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 89/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $224.02 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $211.91 (P10) to $254.62 (P90), with a median of $233.18.
ACN's current P/E of 14.8x compares to the industry median of 13.9x (12 peers in the group). This represents a +6.7% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 31.0x over 7 years. Signal: Fair Value.
53 analysts cover ACN with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $299.92 (range: $265.00 — $330.00), implying +66.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (39), Hold (13), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 89/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that ACN's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -1.7σ, meaning margins are 1.7 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (11.2%), the model estimates fair value drops by 12070.0% to approximately $397. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.