MODEL VERDICT
Adobe Inc. (ADBE) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $262.41 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $258.61 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $263.97 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $264.67 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $333.95 | Pending | -20.1% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 71 analyst estimates | $370.05 | +41.0% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 55 industry peers | $359.58 | +37.0% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 45 industry peers | $283.96 | +8.2% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 67 industry peers | $258.41 | -1.5% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 51 industry peers | $277.12 | +5.6% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 68 industry peers | $283.67 | +8.1% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 25 industry peers | $253.81 | -3.3% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 78 industry peers | $172.67 | -34.2% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 79 industry peers | $146.68 | -44.1% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 50 industry peers | $319.78 | +21.9% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 67 industry peers | $270.59 | +3.1% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $410.70 | +56.5% | 100% | 89 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 17× | 19× | 21× (Current) | 23× | 25× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (6%) | $223 | $249 | $276 | $302 | $328 |
| Conservative (10%) | $231 | $259 | $286 | $313 | $340 |
| Base Case (15.6%) | $243 | $271 | $300 | $329 | $357 |
| Bull Case (21%) | $254 | $284 | $314 | $344 | $374 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 45.85 | 46.18 | 33.32 | 56.59 | 8.94 |
| EV/EBIT | 40.78 | 39.93 | 26.06 | 56.57 | 11.07 |
| EV/EBITDA | 35.91 | 36.12 | 22.58 | 48.62 | 9.00 |
| P/FCF | 34.47 | 39.45 | 21.43 | 45.70 | 8.88 |
| P/FFO | 39.01 | 40.31 | 27.83 | 47.99 | 7.23 |
| P/TBV | 392.40 | 291.30 | 104.32 | 882.70 | 345.22 |
| P/AFFO | 41.94 | 43.33 | 30.17 | 51.13 | 7.90 |
| P/B Ratio | 15.17 | 15.40 | 11.28 | 18.43 | 2.84 |
| P/S Ratio | 13.65 | 14.11 | 9.00 | 18.85 | 3.72 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates ADBE's fair value at $410.70 vs the current price of $262.41, implying +56.5% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 89/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $410.70 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $346.21 (P10) to $475.07 (P90), with a median of $410.55.
ADBE's current P/E of 21.2x compares to the industry median of 23.0x (45 peers in the group). This represents a -7.6% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 45.9x over 7 years. Signal: Fair Value.
61 analysts cover ADBE with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $375.94 (range: $280.00 — $500.00), implying +43.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (37), Hold (21), Sell (3), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 89/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that ADBE's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.1σ, meaning margins are 0.1 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (29.6%), the model estimates fair value drops by 11320.0% to approximately $559. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.