MODEL VERDICT
Adobe Inc. (ADBE)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $250.71 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $245.44 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $244.45 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $244.66 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $225.35 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $515.96 | +105.8% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 5 industry peers | $446.45 | +78.1% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 6 industry peers | $577.90 | +130.5% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 5 industry peers | $429.76 | +71.4% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 5 industry peers | $512.29 | +104.3% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 5 industry peers | $442.86 | +76.6% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 5 industry peers | $282.16 | +12.5% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 7 industry peers | $372.65 | +48.6% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 7 industry peers | $376.40 | +50.1% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 6 industry peers | $573.56 | +128.8% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 5 industry peers | $431.32 | +72.0% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $569.89 | +127.3% | 100% | 85 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 11× | 13× | 15× (Current) | 17× | 19× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $190 | $225 | $260 | $294 | $329 |
| Conservative (6%) | $195 | $230 | $265 | $301 | $336 |
| Base Case (9.0%) | $200 | $237 | $273 | $309 | $346 |
| Bull Case (12%) | $206 | $244 | $281 | $319 | $356 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 42.63 | 46.18 | 20.96 | 56.59 | 13.05 |
| EV/EBIT | 37.48 | 39.18 | 16.87 | 56.57 | 14.32 |
| EV/EBITDA | 33.01 | 36.00 | 15.82 | 48.62 | 11.76 |
| P/FCF | 32.37 | 39.45 | 15.17 | 45.70 | 11.51 |
| P/FFO | 36.22 | 40.31 | 18.80 | 47.99 | 10.54 |
| P/TBV | 392.40 | 291.30 | 104.32 | 882.70 | 345.22 |
| P/AFFO | 38.67 | 43.33 | 19.24 | 51.13 | 11.66 |
| P/B Ratio | 15.29 | 15.40 | 11.28 | 18.43 | 2.70 |
| P/S Ratio | 12.76 | 14.11 | 6.29 | 18.85 | 4.66 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates ADBE's fair value at $569.89 vs the current price of $250.71, implying +127.3% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 85/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $569.89 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $499.65 (P10) to $614.60 (P90), with a median of $556.76.
ADBE's current P/E of 15.0x compares to the industry median of 34.6x (6 peers in the group). This represents a -56.6% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 42.6x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
62 analysts cover ADBE with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $345.50 (range: $220.00 — $450.00), implying +37.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (33), Hold (25), Sell (4), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 85/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that ADBE's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.1σ, meaning margins are 0.1 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (29.8%), the model estimates fair value drops by 18710.0% to approximately $720. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.