Intrinsic Value (DCF)
Current$262.41
→
Intrinsic$466.44
+78%
$313.69$466.44$770.29
Market implies 2% growth for 5 years
DCF analysis suggests ADBE could have 78% upside at 16% growth — verify assumptions match your view.
At $262, the market prices in only 2% growth — below historical 16%, suggesting low expectations.
Range: Bear $314 → Bull $770. Current price implies expectations below the bear case — very conservative expectations.
| Discount ↓Growth → | 12% | 14% | 16% | 18% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8% | $580 | $630 | $683 | $740 |
| 10% | $398 | $431 | $466 | $504 |
| 12% | $302 | $326 | $352 | $380 |
| 14% | $242 | $261 | $282 | $303 |
Bull Case
- Bull case ($770) offers 194% upside at 19% growth, 8% discount
- Price below even worst-case scenario — strong margin of safety
- Market-implied growth (2%) ≤ historical CAGR (16%)
Bear Case
- Bear case ($314) with 12% growth, 12% discount rate
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection
Year 1$9.04B
Year 2$10.45B
Year 3$12.07B
Year 4$13.95B
Year 5$16.12B
Terminal$255.40B
📐 Model Inputs
Growth Rate15.6%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate9.5%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$7.82BTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.