MODEL VERDICT
ADC Therapeutics S.A. (ADCT)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.39 | $3.83 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.35 | $3.94 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $4.28 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.18 | $4.37 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.61 | $3.74 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV To Revenue 4 industry peers | $2.99 | -21.9% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 4 industry peers | $4.31 | +12.5% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $4.46 | +16.4% | 100% | 51 | UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/TBV | 7.07 | 6.44 | 4.61 | 10.17 | 2.83 |
| P/B Ratio | 6.45 | 6.24 | 3.78 | 9.33 | 2.78 |
| P/S Ratio | 11.47 | 2.73 | 1.43 | 45.71 | 19.21 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 5 valuation metrics, the model estimates ADCT's fair value at $4.46 vs the current price of $3.83, implying +16.4% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 51/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $4.46 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $1.84 (P10) to $7.60 (P90), with a median of $4.31.
ADCT's current P/E of -3.4x compares to the industry median of 38.8x (2 peers in the group). This represents a -108.8% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
12 analysts cover ADCT with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $7.50 (range: $5.00 — $10.00), implying +95.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (7), Hold (4), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 51/100, based on: data completeness (6), peer quality (22), historical depth (16), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for ADCT.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.