MODEL VERDICT
Analog Devices, Inc. (ADI) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $355.79 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $355.03 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $337.10 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $325.16 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $300.93 | Below threshold | +7.3% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 64 analyst estimates | $369.27 | +3.8% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 54 industry peers | $293.62 | -17.5% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 47 industry peers | $192.23 | -46.0% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 49 industry peers | $432.88 | +21.7% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 51 industry peers | $240.44 | -32.4% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 54 industry peers | $407.95 | +14.7% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 25 industry peers | $51.56 | -85.5% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 74 industry peers | $167.08 | -53.0% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 74 industry peers | $184.53 | -48.1% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 48 industry peers | $196.04 | -44.9% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 53 industry peers | $442.39 | +24.3% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $275.66 | -22.5% | 100% | 87 | OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 66× | 72× | 78× (Current) | 84× | 90× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (3%) | $309 | $337 | $365 | $393 | $422 |
| Conservative (5%) | $316 | $345 | $373 | $402 | $431 |
| Base Case (6.8%) | $321 | $351 | $380 | $409 | $438 |
| Bull Case (9%) | $329 | $359 | $388 | $418 | $448 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 44.87 | 45.04 | 30.31 | 64.77 | 14.12 |
| EV/EBIT | 38.92 | 39.26 | 27.51 | 53.16 | 11.13 |
| EV/EBITDA | 23.08 | 25.59 | 16.31 | 28.57 | 5.16 |
| P/FCF | 28.30 | 29.50 | 22.41 | 33.94 | 4.31 |
| P/FFO | 24.41 | 27.05 | 17.01 | 31.58 | 5.84 |
| P/AFFO | 28.60 | 29.45 | 19.74 | 36.09 | 6.56 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.20 | 3.01 | 1.86 | 4.58 | 0.96 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 9.37 | 9.64 | 7.14 | 12.22 | 1.92 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates ADI's fair value at $275.66 vs the current price of $355.79, implying -22.5% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 87/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $275.66 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $247.40 (P10) to $339.07 (P90), with a median of $293.11.
ADI's current P/E of 78.0x compares to the industry median of 42.2x (47 peers in the group). This represents a +85.1% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 44.9x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
54 analysts cover ADI with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $374.42 (range: $270.00 — $430.00), implying +5.2% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (43), Hold (11), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 87/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: ADI trades at the 7660th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (44.9×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that ADI's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.8σ, meaning margins are 0.8 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (26.4%), the model estimates fair value drops by 3400.0% to approximately $235. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.