Intrinsic Value (DCF)
Current$355.79
→
Intrinsic$212.00
-40%
$137.98$212.00$359.24
Market implies 28% growth for 5 years
Current price reflects execution expectations above 15% growth — not unreasonable for quality businesses.
At $356, the market prices in continued strong cash flow growth (28%) — likely reflecting buybacks, margin stability, and ecosystem strength.
Range: Bear $138 → Bull $359. Current price implies expectations above the base case, closer to bull expectations.
| Discount ↓Growth → | 11% | 13% | 15% | 17% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8% | $266 | $291 | $317 | $345 |
| 10% | $179 | $195 | $212 | $230 |
| 12% | $132 | $144 | $157 | $170 |
| 14% | $103 | $113 | $123 | $133 |
Bull Case
- Bull case ($359) offers 1% upside at 18% growth, 8% discount
Bear Case
- Bear case ($138) implies 61% downside at 12% growth, 12% discount
- Price reflects 28% growth expectations vs 15% historical — high bar to clear
- Trading 40% above base case — execution must exceed assumptions to justify
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection
Year 1$4.92B
Year 2$5.66B
Year 3$6.51B
Year 4$7.48B
Year 5$8.61B
Terminal$136.37B
📐 Model Inputs
Growth Rate15.0%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate9.5%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$4.28BTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.